1 Year Anniversary Boost...1 Year Later

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Concepts of a Plan
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1 Year Anniversary Boost...1 Year Later

Post by Concepts of a Plan »

In honor of the new anniversary boost, I figured it might be worth going back to the last anniversary to see how those boosts worked out for the homies. Maybe this will give some guidance to people moving forward...maybe it won't. I'll break this down team by team since that's sort of how my brain works. I will breakdown each player at the time and then 5 seasons later.

The rules for the 1 year were slightly different with rookie players not being exempt and just one freebie instead of two:
"+20 Potential OR 2 Freebie +5s (85 Rule Applies)"

Boston
Tracy McGrady +5 JS, +5 Strength

TMac was A-/A-/B+/B+/B at the time. Between this freebie and the switch to an inside offense in Houston, TMac would generally see his FT% remain about the same around 85% and his FG% would tick up by about 1%. One could argue that the +5 strength really helped TMac excel as the inside 4 in Nolan's offense. Overall, this was a fine freebie. I'd have guessed Manu was maxed out in everything, Sasha Pavlovic was trade propaganda, and Chauncey was expiring. TMac was also the youngest Celtic of the main trio, kind of wonder what +20 pot could've done.

Miami
Richard Hamilton +5 Strength, +5 Def Reb

Rip was B+/A-/C+/A-/C- at the time. He would never get to C rebounding and in fact, Scoops traded Rip the same season he got this freebie in a blockbuster for soon to retire Terrell Brandon. Rip's rebounding would generally improve over the next few years by about 0.5 RPG but there were no other notable trends. Unfortunately for Scoops, this freebie came at the end of his Shaq teams and there weren't many good alternatives. I probably would've invested these into other categories but Rip was the right guy. A hall of pretty good type guy.

New Jersey
Mehmet Okur +5 3PT, +5 Strength

Mehmet was B+/A-/C/A-/B. Tbh, Steven kinda blew this one. Ashes told him the Okur had >85 strength, inside, and JS then Steven never gave an alternative +5 for anyone. So only 1 +5 for Mehmet and the Nets. Mehmet wouldn't see any noticeable difference to his 3 point shooting after this freebie. For alternatives, Steven had Stephon Marbury and Jermaine O'Neal on expirings and chose Okur on a 6 year deal. He would turn Okur into all of Nick's picks and some big headaches later. Imagine if NDL's CJ Miles got +20 Pot? Hmmm

New York
+20 Pot Chris Bosh

Yeah, I'd say this worked out. Bosh was/is really really good. Nav chose Chris over Deron Williams and had an anchor to his team for many years. At the time, Bosh was A-/C+/D+/B+/A- showing B pot. 5 years later, Bosh would become A-/C+/D+/A-/A showing B pot. His rebounding took a massive spike after the 07-08 TC (2 TCs later) jumping almost 4.0 RPG. Additionally, Bosh's steals would increase and in 2011, his efficiency took an enormous leap forward.

Orlando
+20 Pot Al Jefferson

ZW's last act as Magic GM was giving Al Hefty +20 pot. I tried to make it Danny Granger, but alas, Al Hefty was the right choice. In his 3rd year in the league, Al was B+/C/D-/B-/A- with B pot. 5 years later, Al was A-/C+/F+/A-/A- with C pot. He would take some pretty enormous efficiency jumps and most importantly went from being a just fine shot blocker to a 3+ blocks per game type within 5 seasons.

Philadelphia
+20 Pot LeBron James

LeBron got +20 pot at A/A-/A-/A-/B+ with B pot. For the folks that thought Kyrie getting +20 pot is overkill, look at Bron! 5 seasons later, LeBron would get to A/A-/A/A/A- with C pot. About 2 years after this pot, LeBron would take huge leaps in FG%/3FG% and PPG. Good call DMo. Shaun Livingston and Dwight weren't to be trusted.

Washington
+20 Pot Chris Paul

Chris Paul had basically no competitors for this freebie and was Wes' pride and joy for a long time. He received this at C+/B+/A/B/C with B pot. 5 years later, Chris would be B-/A-/A+/A/C with B pot. He got this early in his career and would see some solid TCs and general statistical growth that would be expected for a young top 3 pick.

Atlanta
+20 Pot Channing Frye

Frye was in the NDL when getting this. He would peak at B+/A- DEF/REB. Generally speaking, Heimer was mid tank and his roster was completely desolate. Maybe Yuta Tabuse could've gotten +20!

Charlotte
+20 Pot Yao Ming

Mr. Hornet. Yao was already in his prime at the time of his freebie at the tender age of 26, sporting A/C/C/A-/A-. 5 years later, Yao would be A-/C/C/B/A-. 12 years later, Yao is once again a Charlotte Hornet and is A-/C/C/B-/A-. The longevity of Yao's ratings are pretty awesome. I feel like it's more likely a prime or older guy given the +20 pot will see a longer career, maybe not to this extent, but will help them stave off death for an extra season or 3.

Chicago
Tony Parker +5 Strength +5 3PT

Tony would see his outside rating grow over 5 seasons from B+ to A- after this +5 3PT. He was 24, in his prime, and locked up on a sweetheart deal. Tony would see no noticeable statistical impact from these freebies but Tony is also the PG GOAT so... I only wonder, if the 24 year old had been given +20 pot, could he have been even better? Hard to imagine.

Cleveland
+20 Pot Josh Smith

For all of you new folks, there was a time when people thought Josh Smith would be worth a max. At this freebie, he was A-/C+/C/B+/C+ showing B pot in his 3rd season. 5 years later, he'd be shipped to Atlanta for spare parts and only be A-/B-/C/B+/C+. Pretty underwhelming and overall a disappointing career given the promise he showed. There was another guy in Cleveland who could've gotten freebies...Eddie Griffin at the age of 24 with A-/C/B/A-/A-. Oh to think what that could've been.

Detroit
+20 Pot Andrew Bynum

19 at the time and before one of the worst super camps ever. Andrew was C/D+/D-/B-/B-. 5 years later he'd be at C+/C-/F+/B/B. He's basically been tossed back and forth between Joe and Matt since 2011. An elite shotblocker and adequate rebounder. Bynum hasn't quite lived up to the billing. Other options for the freebie were former #3 pick Kyle Lowry and Ben Gordon. Would've been interesting to see Lowry if he'd gotten +20 pot as a rookie.

Indiana
Chris Andersen +5 Off Reb, +5 BLK

Honestly, Calvin kind of has me at a loss here. Kobe Bryant was RIGHT THERE! Yawn Mahinmi already looked solid and could've been another option! But 28 year old Birdman would get the boosts while already boasting A-/B+ DEF/REB and doing 10.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG. He would never top 3.0 BPG after that season and would grab a few more boards despite not having a grade improvement.

Milwaukee
+20 Pot LaMarcus Aldridge

One year early for Kevin Durant! LMA would get this Pot as a rookie showing B-/C/C/B/C+ with A pot, and 5 years later would be A-/C+/C+/A-/B+. This was the easy choice for the freebie and helped boost LMA into a future All SLN big man. Even now, LMA retains A-/C+/C/B+/A-.

Toronto
Kevin Garnett +5 Strength, +5 Inside

KG was 30 years old and completely dominant. Sporting A-/A-/B/A-/A- he was a total superstar! These freebies seemed to have helped KG as he'd imrpove his efficiency in the next two seasons. The only question would be, was KG the right choice for the contending Raptors at the time. I can almost guarantee he texted someone thinking about giving them to Tony Allen at the time. Perk would've been an intriguing option for a +20 pot but hard to fault with juicing your best player.

Dallas
+20 Pot Jamario Moon

Sporting B+/B/B+/A-/B as a 25 year old, 5 years later he'd be at A-/B-/A-/B+/B+. A total enigma of a player. Ralph still hates him to this day. Maybe Hoff should've given stuff to Pau Gasol? At the same time, he tore this whole thing down for the largest sack ever.

Denver
Allen Iverson +5 JS, +5 Inside

AI was the highest rated player in the game per Ashes at one point. Dude was nice! Kipke had a pretty veteran team at the time of this freebie and Shawn Marion was probably the only competitor for this. I do think there's very clear proof these had a massive impact for AI as he would go from his FG%/FT% dipping in Denver to 4 straight years over his career averages at the ages 32-35.

Houston
+20 Pot Renaldo Balkman

I don't think these freebies could come at ANY worse time for Nolan. In 2006, his roster was horrendous and Balkman was the only "prospect" on the squad. One of those guys that came in SLN ready and just generally never got better, even with +20 pot. From C+/D+/D-/B+/B- to B-/C-/D-/B/B in 5 years...not ideal, albeit better.

Minnesota
Andrei Kirilenko +5 Strength, +5 Handles

AK47 had such a long second career, you almost forget about the Minnesota years! Pankin had star AK47, Tyson Chandler, and Amare at the time. AK47 would see his TOs dip over time but some of that was also due to not being the primary offensive option in Dallas. His FG% and RPG were roughly inline with his previous seasons so nothing overly noticeable, but AK47 was that dude.

San Antonio
Devin Harris +5 Inside, +5 3PT

One of those guys who would consistently vacillate between B+/A- Outside and C+/B- Inside. 2 seasons, after the freebie, Devin would take a big leap in FG% to around 47% from 43.5%. His 3PT shooting never was overly great, being consistently around 40% for the next 5 years.

Utah
+20 Pot Rashad McCants

What a boon this +20 pot turned out to be for Ralph Matt. One of the Pokemon and a backcourt mate of Ray Felton and Brandon Roy. Honestly, I'm surprised McCants got this over Roy looking back at it. At the time, McCants sported B-/A-/C/B/C- and would get to B+/A/C/B/C in 5 years. He would be a victim of salary cap math and signed the nicest deal with Kipke in a sign and trade for Matt.
Rashad would blossom into a guy oft-described as "the best 2-way guard in SLN", which I never bought into, but he was really damn good.
McCants is still alive and kicking at B+/A/D+/C/C all these years later.
Vancouver
+20 Pot Jay Williams

I think a surprising choice for most over Dwyane Wade. Jay Will was the longtime PG of a Grizz dynasty. At the time of the freebie, Jay was at C+/B/A-/B+/C- and would get to C+/A-/B+/A/C- in 5 years. He got a nice bump in efficiency with his jump to A- outside. Honestly, this freebie might've helped create the longevity of the dynasty because otherwise, Josh may have had to maneuver some key pieces to land that elusive PG.

Golden State
+20 Pot Monta Ellis

The OG Clinton Warrior. Monta was B-/B/B-/C+/C in year 2 of his career while showing a distinct turnover problem. 5 seasons later, B/A-/A-/B-/C with his efficiency and rebounding up and turnovers down. Monta had terrific development, no doubt aided by his +20 pot. Another one that is still around and now sports, B/A/B+/C+/C+.

LA Clippers
+20 Pot Richard Jefferson

This team was beginning to enter a full-on tank and RJ was the only piece that looked like he could be a piece and was sub-30. At 26, he was B/B+/C/B/C and would become B/A-/C/B-/C. However, this was all just pretty ratings. He had one decent year with LAC but was an elite tank commander and generally shitty player otherwise.

LA Lakers
Steve Francis +5 Handles, +5 Inside

29 years old at A-/A-/B+/B+/C with a huge turnover problem. He would win MVP 2 years later when he reached elite yet short-lived hyper efficiency. His turnover problem never really went away. Jayant really had 2 freebie guys since he acquired Rip Hamilton late in the year. I'd imagine this came down to Michael Redd or Steve Francis, and he chose the better ratings guy which was probably correct.

Phoenix
+20 Pot Joe Johnson

This generally didn't work out but he did become a nice sixth man for a time. Joe had some of the prettiest ratings at B/A-/C+/B-/C- and would get to B/A/C+/B+/C-. Joe looked a lot better on the roster page than he was in the box scores. Similar to Cleveland, you wonder what would've happened had Tyler given the +20 pot to another Eddy...24 year old Eddy Curry.

Portland
+20 Pot Jameer Nelson

10/10 outcome. Couldn't have gone better. Quady chose Jameer over Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, and Lou Williams who were all recent lotto picks. You chose...wisely. As a 3rd year player, Jameer was C/A-/A/B/C and 5 seasons later would be C+/A+/A+/A/C.

Sacramento
Tayshaun Prince +5 Inside, +5 JS

Looking at Jesse's roster, I'm not sure how HUMP MANNNNNN didn't get this freebie for potential! Tayshaun was B-/A-/D-/A-/B-. He'd take a noticeable step froward in FG% and FT% in the year after the freebie before getting traded to San Antonio. After that, Tayshaun was generally fine but a bit inconsistent as a shooter.

Seattle
Paul Pierce +5 STL, +5 Inside

Nick tried so hard to give these to Dirk and came up empty. Instead they'd go to Poopy Pants. Paul would see a pretty big jump in his volume and the steals were relatively neutral.

After looking through all of these, it doesn't seem like there's an overly clearcut choice in terms of what to do. At the end of the day, the game truly takes the wheel and TCs you to life or death. It appears like the +5's were roughly negligible but some showed nice impact. +20 pot seems to have prolonged some careers and in Jameer's case gave him a chance to become a superstar. Juicing young players that had high pot with more pot typically worked out, which isn't surprising.
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mantypas/CavsCzar
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Post by mantypas/CavsCzar »

Great article, ugh Josh Smith nightmares. Never knew how good I truly had it with Eddie G
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Post by jwoo »

Great stuff - would be curious to see what age and year EXP all these guys were when they got pot boosts
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Post by Concepts of a Plan »

jwoo wrote: September 13th, 2024, 7:57 pm Great stuff - would be curious to see what age and year EXP all these guys were when they got pot boosts
This wouldn’t work for LMGTFY so: https://www.simleaguenirvana.com/history/06/
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Post by Wes »

What an overall disappointment CP3 ended up being. Not sure if it was bad TC luck or his game just didn’t translate great to SLN. He also ticked up to flat A outside year 2/3 then immediately went back down to A- and never got back up. What could have been…
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Post by jwoo »

Wes wrote: September 13th, 2024, 8:41 pm What an overall disappointment CP3 ended up being. Not sure if it was bad TC luck or his game just didn’t translate great to SLN. He also ticked up to flat A outside year 2/3 then immediately went back down to A- and never got back up. What could have been…
I think I’ve said this before but interesting case study of the downside to waiting an extra year to supercamp (not criticizing you Wes) - I always wondered if CP would have been supercamped/camped earlier if he would have been more effective as a handler
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Post by Joe »

Very glad somebody put this together. Tbh I thought the 20 pot would honestly have an even higher hit rate historically
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Post by heimer »

a deep regret for not giving Yuta the Yoda +20 pots has suddenly set in mah belleh
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Post by Skillz »

honestly some dissapointing results which should hopefully make us feel a bit better about inflation after these yr-2 boosts!
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Post by ashes »

it's almost like I've been doing this for 23 years!

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