2014 PLAYOFF PREVIEW
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jwoo
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2014 PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Looking forward to the playoffs! Will try to bang out some more off-season content too, mock draft and maybe FA preview in next few days.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) BOSTON vs. (8) ATLANTA
Season Series: 3-1 Boston
The Celtics come off a banner year and win this year's "Team I was way too low on in the Power Rankings" award. They're well balanced and are going to have plenty of cracks at the playoffs with Beasley and PG13 just entering their prime years. Joe got a bad dose of injury luck with Okafor (and to a lesser extent, Telfair) set to miss potentially the whole playoff run, which thins out the three-headed (three-butted?) monster of Okafor, Biedrins and Petro. The Celtics didn't shoot it that great as a team this season (44.9% FG), but they guard and take care of the ball.
The Hawks return to the playoffs for the first time in I don't know how long after getting hot to end the season and leapfrogging the Bulls, Hornets and Heat to sneak into the 8 seed. They just beat the Celtics on Day 116 and I think present a pretty difficult matchup on paper - they have a ton of offensive firepower with noted playoff legend Jamal Crawford, and they have good defenders to support him in Westbrook and Iguodala that might be able to help slow down the Celtics where it counts.
The pick: Celtics in seven. I think Atlanta has the ability to push Boston pretty hard, particularly with Okafor out and I think this could be a pretty exciting series. Hawks have the level of star talent that can challenge in a series like this but will have to find a way to eke out a road win or two. I liked the way Atlanta closed the season a lot, but I think home court + ball control probably gives the Celtics a slight edge. EDITOR'S NOTE: CAN WE GET POLYNICE TO WEIGH IN?
(2) MILWAUKEE vs. (7) WASHINGTON
Season Series: 2-2 (home teams won all four games)
It's always a bitch to play the Bucks and Kevin Durant, and Milwaukee pulled away in the second half and won a very deep on-paper Central division, fielding a very well-balanced roster with no glaring weaknesses. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the best No. 2's in the league, Gilbert Arenas is 32 but still playing at a high level, Ilyasova has become a really nice sixth man, and everyone else plays defense and stays out of the way. This is a hard team to attack matchup-wise, you just kinda have to hope you score more points. If there's a weakness, it's that the Bucks were toward the lower end of the pack in three-point shooting (38.4%), leaving opportunities to outscore them if you get enough threes up - but you have to slow them down first. Not easy!
The Bullets are kind of limping into the playoffs after a tough second half but still had a pretty good point differential and were sitting in the top four in the East for a good chunk of the season. They have a lot of offensive firepower and a pretty solid defense by the numbers, and the Manu/CP3/J-Rich trio is capable of going off in any game. Weston never really addressed the Gerald Wallace injury via trade and he's still out 19 more days, so the Bullets will have to win a series or two to actually get him back. They have the better backcourt in this series, but without Wallace, they don't have anyone to really guard Durant or Aldridge.
The pick: Bucks in six. Hard for me to pick against KD here since he might be guarded by ancient Vince Carter for a lot of the series. I like Milwaukee's build and I'm curious to see if there is a cat-and-mouse game between coaching staffs to get Thabo and his A+ defense matched up on (or off) Manu. This has potential to be a really fun series.
(3) PHILADELPHIA vs. (6) INDIANA
Season series: 3-0 Pacers
Philly hasn't always been consistent this season but after a lot of roster shuffling they have landed here - LeBron has his best running mate maybe ever in Paul Pierce, and there's a lot of offensive firepower here on a team that can play scorers 1-4 and just kind of run and gun people to death. DMo has decided to give Lamar Odom's corpse significant minutes and I'm curious to see how he holds up in a playoff series. Bottom line, hard to not like LeBron in any series, particularly with homecourt.
The Pacers are making their first playoff appearance of the Tonger era and beat the Sixers three times this season, but two of them were in the first half before a lot of moves were made etc. so I probably wouldn't put a ton of stock into it. Indiana has a lot of scoring with Bosh, Roy and Butler, they take good care of the ball thanks to Jason Hart, and they rebound really well - they should have a good interior advantage in this matchup. They do not have LeBron though, and I don't know if Hart can guard him. The Pacers are also nursing small injuries to D-Will and Brand that might make it hard to steal a road game out of the gate.
The pick: Sixers in seven. I'm not picking against LeBron. But I do think it's going to be a very tight series. Curious how the Pacers decide to approach the Bosh/Pierce matchup, which is maybe a key to the series. I think Indiana is deeper, particularly up front, and the parts probably make more sense, but none of that really matters sometimes when you are facing LBJ. I think the Pacers push Philly hard, but not sure it's enough against Bron.
(4) DETROIT vs. (5) NEW JERSEY
Season series: 2-2
This is gonna be a really fun one, with two teams making triumphant playoff debuts in their current eras. Kyrie is back from sabbatical and the Pistons have home court, they are pretty stacked in terms of star power, and feature the best perimeter shooting trio in the league, making them a tough team to slow down. Diop and Pau are probably at the tail end of their primes, so this is a big opportunity for the Pistons. Does Kyrie have any playoff specific stips?
The Nets have a pretty consequential injury, with Tayshaun Prince out for 18 days - one that could potentially swing the series due to how important he is. Really sucks considering the matchup in particular against a team that lights it up from three. Kemba, Redick and Granny Danger are going to have to step up, and Steven will have to decide how to cover for the injury. Anthony Davis against Old Pau is a pretty sick matchup, too.
The pick: Pistons in seven. Another series I think will be close. I would have taken the Nets if they were fully healthy, but think this is a particularly shitty injury for them in a series that would otherwise have been perfect for Tayshaun's specific strengths and weaknesses. It's a very even matchup otherwise. Ugh, I've only taken chalk so far.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) PORTLAND vs. (8) LA CLIPPERS
Season series: 4-0 Clippers
A series that was much spicier on paper due to the Clippers' regular-season domination looks a lot less exciting now that Derrick Rose fractured his cheekbone and will be replaced by Nate Robinson for the next 10 days (fuck, this is giving me IRL Bulls playoff PTSD). Just kidding, it's Keyon Dooling, whatever. The Blazers owned the best regular-season record in the league, living up to the preseason billing, and have no glaring weaknesses: they have a superstar PG, they are deep with shooters, they are staunch with butts up front. Not only is their star power with Jameer and Dwight, but this is also one of the best supporting casts in the league, if not the best.
The Clippers might be boned without Rose, who blossomed into a star this season and was able to finally play efficient basketball, his career year not coincidentally vaulting LA back into the playoffs for the first time in forever. Shitty break for Bobby. As the regular season indicated, LA otherwise matches up really well with the Blazers — they have a much-improved defense, they have size up front, scoring on the wing, and are playing balanced, which has lent itself to Boogie emerging as a stud. Great year for LA and if they can retain Cousins in FA, they should have a good little window here to be competitive and fun.
The pick: Blazers in five. I think maybe the Clippers find a way to steal a game, but without Rose I can't buy the upset potential here. This might be Portland's year.
(2) HOUSTON vs. (7) UTAH
Season series: 4-0 Rockets
Another series that will be a bit clouded by injury, with Darko out for 14 days in a matchup the Jazz can't really afford not to have him for. The defending champion Rockets are in good shape, winning their division and punishing people inside thanks to the king Eddy Curry and also Blake Griffin and T-Mac and Livingston, damn Houston is stacked. Rockets are in good form, they dominated this matchup during the season, they have the best oFG% in the league, and Utah is without its best interior defender, so yeah. Houston has a tough path to repeating, but it's certainly possible.
The Jazz catch a bad break here but at least have Al Jefferson to throw at the Rockets' front line. They aren't super deep, which is going to make this a really tall task against a team that fouls people out and beats them up. Utah has enough scoring to keep up with Dahntay/Jay Will/Marvin, but this is a tough matchup and it's hard to look at it with a ton of optimism for Utah. I've been wrong plenty of times though.
The pick: Rockets in five. I think Utah maybe steals a game, but maybe not more than that.
(3) SACRAMENTO vs. (6) SEATTLE
Season series: 3-1 Sonics
Fun matchup of two playoff DC specialists that will be a pretty fun one to watch. The Kings are without Luol Deng (fuck, Bulls fan PTSD again) for seven days and the Sonics got really hot to end the season, continuing their impressive playoff streak. I think a lot of people would probably look at the Kings as the title favorite just because they arguably have the two best players in any series they'll play, with Wade and Parker. Those guys are historically dominant playoff players and they're on the same team, so yeah, good luck lol. Sacramento has a solid supporting cast as well, with Metta defending on the wing, Boban doing his thing inside, Humphries back healthy, etc. — Jesse put a really tough team together and they'll have a chance to beat anybody.
Sonics are a fun team - they don't shoot it that well, but they're gritty and have gotten a lot out of this roster, with two studs in Conley and Oden who can win their matchups at important positions. Jamario Moon had a sweet season - he's not Paul Pierce on offense, but Nick has used him to similar effect. Seattle is capable of mucking games up, taking care of the ball and finding ways to eke out wins, but also I think the Kings were banged up during some of the regular season matchups with Humphries out.
The pick: Kings in six. I think Sac is probably my title pick, and I think they can weather the Deng injury against a Sonics team that doesn't have a ton of consistent offensive volume coming from any one wing player. Rockets-Kings second round series would be electric, but I also would never totally count out the Sonics, they just always seem find ways to win in the playoffs. Fun series.
(4) DALLAS vs. (5) DENVER
Season series: 2-2
Yet another super compelling first-round matchup, between the upstart Mavs and very potent Nuggets, a series that feels like a toss-up. Dallas is led by rising star Jrue Holiday and has a really nice starting five, with Rudy Fernandez, AK and Whiteside giving them some high-end talent. The Mavs have been one of the season's nice surprises and would seem to have enough defense on the roster to give the Nuggets' offense problems. They're stocky and take good care of the ball, although their rebounding isn't on par with Denver. Dallas actually shot the ball better than Denver on whole this season, and they had the fewest turnovers in the league.
The Nuggets have enough offense to beat anybody and finished the season on a way better note than they started it. They're a middle of the pack team defensively, but that's often enough. Melo and Steph are elite perimeter scorers, and while Monta had a bad season, this isn't a fun team to have to try and take down in a series. They rebound it well with Perk and Mahinmi, but they are a little one-dimensional on offense at times due to how concentrated their shots are with just a few players. Tony Allen is a fun matchup piece defensively, and I'm curious if he gets some run over Monta as a starter at any point (maybe to slow down Rudy?)
The pick: Nuggets in seven. Felt like I had to pick one upset, and I feel like this is really an even series. I think the rebounding edge and three-point shooting edge probably plays in favor of Denver. I think Dallas is the more consistent team but my gut tilts toward Denver's star power and general butt quality/depth - thought Hoff maybe should have found a way to unload Ryan Anderson for another rebounder. Not confident in this though, can go both ways for sure, but I think Denver sneaks past.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) BOSTON vs. (8) ATLANTA
Season Series: 3-1 Boston
The Celtics come off a banner year and win this year's "Team I was way too low on in the Power Rankings" award. They're well balanced and are going to have plenty of cracks at the playoffs with Beasley and PG13 just entering their prime years. Joe got a bad dose of injury luck with Okafor (and to a lesser extent, Telfair) set to miss potentially the whole playoff run, which thins out the three-headed (three-butted?) monster of Okafor, Biedrins and Petro. The Celtics didn't shoot it that great as a team this season (44.9% FG), but they guard and take care of the ball.
The Hawks return to the playoffs for the first time in I don't know how long after getting hot to end the season and leapfrogging the Bulls, Hornets and Heat to sneak into the 8 seed. They just beat the Celtics on Day 116 and I think present a pretty difficult matchup on paper - they have a ton of offensive firepower with noted playoff legend Jamal Crawford, and they have good defenders to support him in Westbrook and Iguodala that might be able to help slow down the Celtics where it counts.
The pick: Celtics in seven. I think Atlanta has the ability to push Boston pretty hard, particularly with Okafor out and I think this could be a pretty exciting series. Hawks have the level of star talent that can challenge in a series like this but will have to find a way to eke out a road win or two. I liked the way Atlanta closed the season a lot, but I think home court + ball control probably gives the Celtics a slight edge. EDITOR'S NOTE: CAN WE GET POLYNICE TO WEIGH IN?
(2) MILWAUKEE vs. (7) WASHINGTON
Season Series: 2-2 (home teams won all four games)
It's always a bitch to play the Bucks and Kevin Durant, and Milwaukee pulled away in the second half and won a very deep on-paper Central division, fielding a very well-balanced roster with no glaring weaknesses. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the best No. 2's in the league, Gilbert Arenas is 32 but still playing at a high level, Ilyasova has become a really nice sixth man, and everyone else plays defense and stays out of the way. This is a hard team to attack matchup-wise, you just kinda have to hope you score more points. If there's a weakness, it's that the Bucks were toward the lower end of the pack in three-point shooting (38.4%), leaving opportunities to outscore them if you get enough threes up - but you have to slow them down first. Not easy!
The Bullets are kind of limping into the playoffs after a tough second half but still had a pretty good point differential and were sitting in the top four in the East for a good chunk of the season. They have a lot of offensive firepower and a pretty solid defense by the numbers, and the Manu/CP3/J-Rich trio is capable of going off in any game. Weston never really addressed the Gerald Wallace injury via trade and he's still out 19 more days, so the Bullets will have to win a series or two to actually get him back. They have the better backcourt in this series, but without Wallace, they don't have anyone to really guard Durant or Aldridge.
The pick: Bucks in six. Hard for me to pick against KD here since he might be guarded by ancient Vince Carter for a lot of the series. I like Milwaukee's build and I'm curious to see if there is a cat-and-mouse game between coaching staffs to get Thabo and his A+ defense matched up on (or off) Manu. This has potential to be a really fun series.
(3) PHILADELPHIA vs. (6) INDIANA
Season series: 3-0 Pacers
Philly hasn't always been consistent this season but after a lot of roster shuffling they have landed here - LeBron has his best running mate maybe ever in Paul Pierce, and there's a lot of offensive firepower here on a team that can play scorers 1-4 and just kind of run and gun people to death. DMo has decided to give Lamar Odom's corpse significant minutes and I'm curious to see how he holds up in a playoff series. Bottom line, hard to not like LeBron in any series, particularly with homecourt.
The Pacers are making their first playoff appearance of the Tonger era and beat the Sixers three times this season, but two of them were in the first half before a lot of moves were made etc. so I probably wouldn't put a ton of stock into it. Indiana has a lot of scoring with Bosh, Roy and Butler, they take good care of the ball thanks to Jason Hart, and they rebound really well - they should have a good interior advantage in this matchup. They do not have LeBron though, and I don't know if Hart can guard him. The Pacers are also nursing small injuries to D-Will and Brand that might make it hard to steal a road game out of the gate.
The pick: Sixers in seven. I'm not picking against LeBron. But I do think it's going to be a very tight series. Curious how the Pacers decide to approach the Bosh/Pierce matchup, which is maybe a key to the series. I think Indiana is deeper, particularly up front, and the parts probably make more sense, but none of that really matters sometimes when you are facing LBJ. I think the Pacers push Philly hard, but not sure it's enough against Bron.
(4) DETROIT vs. (5) NEW JERSEY
Season series: 2-2
This is gonna be a really fun one, with two teams making triumphant playoff debuts in their current eras. Kyrie is back from sabbatical and the Pistons have home court, they are pretty stacked in terms of star power, and feature the best perimeter shooting trio in the league, making them a tough team to slow down. Diop and Pau are probably at the tail end of their primes, so this is a big opportunity for the Pistons. Does Kyrie have any playoff specific stips?
The Nets have a pretty consequential injury, with Tayshaun Prince out for 18 days - one that could potentially swing the series due to how important he is. Really sucks considering the matchup in particular against a team that lights it up from three. Kemba, Redick and Granny Danger are going to have to step up, and Steven will have to decide how to cover for the injury. Anthony Davis against Old Pau is a pretty sick matchup, too.
The pick: Pistons in seven. Another series I think will be close. I would have taken the Nets if they were fully healthy, but think this is a particularly shitty injury for them in a series that would otherwise have been perfect for Tayshaun's specific strengths and weaknesses. It's a very even matchup otherwise. Ugh, I've only taken chalk so far.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) PORTLAND vs. (8) LA CLIPPERS
Season series: 4-0 Clippers
A series that was much spicier on paper due to the Clippers' regular-season domination looks a lot less exciting now that Derrick Rose fractured his cheekbone and will be replaced by Nate Robinson for the next 10 days (fuck, this is giving me IRL Bulls playoff PTSD). Just kidding, it's Keyon Dooling, whatever. The Blazers owned the best regular-season record in the league, living up to the preseason billing, and have no glaring weaknesses: they have a superstar PG, they are deep with shooters, they are staunch with butts up front. Not only is their star power with Jameer and Dwight, but this is also one of the best supporting casts in the league, if not the best.
The Clippers might be boned without Rose, who blossomed into a star this season and was able to finally play efficient basketball, his career year not coincidentally vaulting LA back into the playoffs for the first time in forever. Shitty break for Bobby. As the regular season indicated, LA otherwise matches up really well with the Blazers — they have a much-improved defense, they have size up front, scoring on the wing, and are playing balanced, which has lent itself to Boogie emerging as a stud. Great year for LA and if they can retain Cousins in FA, they should have a good little window here to be competitive and fun.
The pick: Blazers in five. I think maybe the Clippers find a way to steal a game, but without Rose I can't buy the upset potential here. This might be Portland's year.
(2) HOUSTON vs. (7) UTAH
Season series: 4-0 Rockets
Another series that will be a bit clouded by injury, with Darko out for 14 days in a matchup the Jazz can't really afford not to have him for. The defending champion Rockets are in good shape, winning their division and punishing people inside thanks to the king Eddy Curry and also Blake Griffin and T-Mac and Livingston, damn Houston is stacked. Rockets are in good form, they dominated this matchup during the season, they have the best oFG% in the league, and Utah is without its best interior defender, so yeah. Houston has a tough path to repeating, but it's certainly possible.
The Jazz catch a bad break here but at least have Al Jefferson to throw at the Rockets' front line. They aren't super deep, which is going to make this a really tall task against a team that fouls people out and beats them up. Utah has enough scoring to keep up with Dahntay/Jay Will/Marvin, but this is a tough matchup and it's hard to look at it with a ton of optimism for Utah. I've been wrong plenty of times though.
The pick: Rockets in five. I think Utah maybe steals a game, but maybe not more than that.
(3) SACRAMENTO vs. (6) SEATTLE
Season series: 3-1 Sonics
Fun matchup of two playoff DC specialists that will be a pretty fun one to watch. The Kings are without Luol Deng (fuck, Bulls fan PTSD again) for seven days and the Sonics got really hot to end the season, continuing their impressive playoff streak. I think a lot of people would probably look at the Kings as the title favorite just because they arguably have the two best players in any series they'll play, with Wade and Parker. Those guys are historically dominant playoff players and they're on the same team, so yeah, good luck lol. Sacramento has a solid supporting cast as well, with Metta defending on the wing, Boban doing his thing inside, Humphries back healthy, etc. — Jesse put a really tough team together and they'll have a chance to beat anybody.
Sonics are a fun team - they don't shoot it that well, but they're gritty and have gotten a lot out of this roster, with two studs in Conley and Oden who can win their matchups at important positions. Jamario Moon had a sweet season - he's not Paul Pierce on offense, but Nick has used him to similar effect. Seattle is capable of mucking games up, taking care of the ball and finding ways to eke out wins, but also I think the Kings were banged up during some of the regular season matchups with Humphries out.
The pick: Kings in six. I think Sac is probably my title pick, and I think they can weather the Deng injury against a Sonics team that doesn't have a ton of consistent offensive volume coming from any one wing player. Rockets-Kings second round series would be electric, but I also would never totally count out the Sonics, they just always seem find ways to win in the playoffs. Fun series.
(4) DALLAS vs. (5) DENVER
Season series: 2-2
Yet another super compelling first-round matchup, between the upstart Mavs and very potent Nuggets, a series that feels like a toss-up. Dallas is led by rising star Jrue Holiday and has a really nice starting five, with Rudy Fernandez, AK and Whiteside giving them some high-end talent. The Mavs have been one of the season's nice surprises and would seem to have enough defense on the roster to give the Nuggets' offense problems. They're stocky and take good care of the ball, although their rebounding isn't on par with Denver. Dallas actually shot the ball better than Denver on whole this season, and they had the fewest turnovers in the league.
The Nuggets have enough offense to beat anybody and finished the season on a way better note than they started it. They're a middle of the pack team defensively, but that's often enough. Melo and Steph are elite perimeter scorers, and while Monta had a bad season, this isn't a fun team to have to try and take down in a series. They rebound it well with Perk and Mahinmi, but they are a little one-dimensional on offense at times due to how concentrated their shots are with just a few players. Tony Allen is a fun matchup piece defensively, and I'm curious if he gets some run over Monta as a starter at any point (maybe to slow down Rudy?)
The pick: Nuggets in seven. Felt like I had to pick one upset, and I feel like this is really an even series. I think the rebounding edge and three-point shooting edge probably plays in favor of Denver. I think Dallas is the more consistent team but my gut tilts toward Denver's star power and general butt quality/depth - thought Hoff maybe should have found a way to unload Ryan Anderson for another rebounder. Not confident in this though, can go both ways for sure, but I think Denver sneaks past.
Last edited by jwoo on May 5th, 2024, 1:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
free healthcare has never been more important
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jwoo
- General Manager
- Posts: 3806
- Joined: December 30th, 2023, 3:58 pm
- Location: French Canada
- Contact:
2014 PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Updated with both East and West now. Good luck everyone
free healthcare has never been more important
2014 PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Great preview! I’m not confident against the hot Nuggets. I feel like we always struggle against Denver.
2014 PLAYOFF PREVIEW
I got Heimer over the Celtics. My man posted his DC. With swag like that, I believe
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