Article: Sack Value
Article: Sack Value
Happy TC eve everyone! On this merriest of occasions, and as I'm being reintroduced to the workforce (and thereby eager for procrastination methods), I thought I'd take a look at all of the Owed Picks (first rounders only) and geta sense of which picks are most valuable, which are least valuable, and what teams are sitting on high quality, silky sacks, and which teams are saddled with a big ole hunk of burlap.
There are 41 first rounders that are owed to different teams around the league. Before we begin, let's remind ourselves of relative sack size:
I went through and scored each pick on value from 1-5 based on the conveying team's construction, competition (division / conference strength), track record of GM ability (mostly just a Jesse adjustment mechanism), and overall guess as to where in that draft the pick will fall. I did not take into account the strength of the drafts themselves, as I think there are differing (and valid) opinions leaguewide around how much we should take that into account when evaluating future picks.
Let's go group by group and examine some of the more interesting owed firsts:
The Solid Gold
At this point in time, I think there are more "Solid Gold" picks than there ever have been, and likely will be for a long time - mostly as a result of Kyrie's wackiness, unlucky resigning luck in Houston, and reasonable aggressive GMing to maximize LeBron's prime. Before we dive in, I think it's worth defining what "solid gold" really means in this context - I don't think that these picks are likely to be top 5 pre-lotto. I think all of these picks probably top out at the 8 or 9 pre lotto range, and would require some heavy luck to turn into actual solid gold assets come draft day. This is mostly just based on the fact that there are usually around 7 tankers a year at least, and it's pretty easy to put together a better-than-tank-quality team if you're trying to.
Without further ado, here are the 5s:
PHI 2018 (owed to LAL)
DET 2018 (SAC)
DET 2019 (ORL)
PHI 2019 (TOR, swap rights)
HOU 2019 (WAS)
PHI 2020 (CHI)
DET 2020 (SAC)
DET 2021 (ORL)
PHI 2021 (TOR)
DET 2022 (CHI)
PHI 2022 (WAS)
The 76ers and Pistons picks make up almost all of this list, as they conveyed the 9th and 10th overall picks in this year's draft (Derrick White and De'Aaron Fox). It's pretty rare for the expected outcome of an owed pick to be lottery, but I think that's the baseline for both of these teams until we see something different. For the 76ers, LeBron is entering his age 33 season, and it's unlikely that he'll age as gracefully in FBB as he did IRL. For the Pistons, there are some young guys that should have potential that could keep the team in playoff contention if they hit (Dejounte Murray, Draymond Green, even Jordan Clarkson), but without any assets to play with, I think somewhere in the 8-15 range is likely for these picks, with an upside case for a top 3 with lotto luck and not much of a downside case. The Rockets pick next year should also be gold, with Arenas likely to retire after his age 36 season with his contract expiring. There are some pieces in place to field a competitive team, and Nolan did what he could in free agency after Curry and Griffin walked by signing Gortat to a nice deal, but without cap space or a real reason to trade future assets, I think his 18 pick will almost certainly be lotto.
The Trade Chips
This group of picks is smaller and anyone holding one of these will have you believe it's Solid Gold as they try to sell it to you. In normal circumstances, these would likely be some of the more valuable non-player assets in the league. Here are the 4s:
HOU 2018 (WAS)
CHI 2019 (CLE)
CHI 2020 (CLE)
POR 2021 (WAS)
UTA 2021 (POR)
CHI 2021 (GSW)
UTA 2022 (POR)
There definitely is some stratification in this group, as Houston 2018 is certainly more valuable than the Jazz picks. But I think there is a case to be made for each of these picks to end up in the lottery, which I don't think is quite as likely for the picks in the 3 category. For the Jazz (one of two teams that owe a pick that I considered a 1 for this exercise), these picks having a chance to be good is simply a cost of doing business - they needed to bring in a PG last offseason to capitalize on their window with Oden / Hefty / Marvin, and similarly, needed to accept some heavy resigning offers to ensure the biggest possible bites at the apple. The downside is that in 2020 (before the 2021 draft), Jameer will likely be retired, and they'll owe 59 million combined to 33 year old Oden, 36 year old Jefferson, and 34 year old Marvin, and unless Ralph wants to lever himself further, I'm not sure how they put together a competitive roster around those 3 players.
The CHI picks that are floating around in the ether are similarly valuable - my helter-skelter tank job is unlikely to result in a top 5 pick, and the most fool-proof way to flip your team into a contender is to draft a superstar (see: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetekounmpo, Anthony Davis, etc.). Without a top 5 pick, the margin of error is wayyyy smaller, and I could easily be conveying lotto picks to Mantypas and Clint.
The HOU pick was discussed above, and I think is a borderline 5 - but with Arenas in tow this season I could see the Rockets competing for the 8 seed out West. The Portland pick is interesting too - they're building organically and should be able to get a couple top picks to pair with Lauri, who I like a lot, but man...they're set to pay 35 year old Dwight 30.7m in 2021. With all that cash Dwight's probably gonna have too much meat to think about to focus on basketball.
The Of Course...But Maybes?!?
Louis CK has a hilarious routine (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLGzFQg_1xc) where he talks about things that he knows to be true, but then has an intrusive thought about - if you haven't seen it, do yourself a favor. I think that's apt for this group, outlined below:
2020 UTA (SEA)
2020 CLE (SEA)
2020 PHX (CHI)
2021 CLE (SEA)
2022 ORL (CHI)
2019 SA (TOR)
Of COURSE, Cleveland has a nice young core, Zach Lavine looks promising, Nerlens is one of the best young big butts the league has to offer, OG was a nice defensive complement to Lavine, DLo looks promising, and they're building organically. Of course. BUT MAYBE...a backcourt of Lavine and Dlo averaging 6+ TOs per 36 and no frontcourt is cause for concern?
Of course, the Suns are gonna win like 65 games this year. Of course, Tyler has like a million GMOTYs and is about to win another after trading for arguably the most impactful player in the league in his prime. BUT MAYBE...36 year old McCants and 35 year old Livingtson making 52.5M in 2020 is gonna make it hard to build around? Maybe there's already 76m accounted for on the Suns cap sheet in 2020 for 6 players and it's gonna be pretty tough to maneuver your way into a top seed?
OF COURSE, the Magic have a former 2nd overall pick going into his 3rd season, Kawhi Leonard in his absolute prime post-shooting camp, and plenty of prospects in Caruso / Smart / Randle. Of course, Merv is one of the most active GMs and has plenty of assets at his disposal to improve this roster over the next few years. BUT MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, Kawhi like isn't that good? Maybe it's going tough to win with Dubious Handle coughing it up 3 times per 36?
The Non-Lottos
This group is pretty boring - it's mostly filled with teams that were already decent and then traded their own picks to either add a star or improve around the edges. And also all the Kings picks are in this group.
2018 SAC (GSW)
2018 ATL (PHI)
2018 NYK (MIL)
2019 NYK (GSW)
2019 UTA (SEA)
2019 BOS (MIL)
2019 ATL (MIL)
2019 DAL (MIL)
2020 SA (SEA)
2020 SAC (SEA)
2020 ATL (MIL)
2020 DAL (DET)
2021 ATL (MIL)
2021 SAC (SEA)
2021 DAL (MIL)
2022 SAC (HOU)
Despite 15 picks being in this group, they only will be conveyed collectively by 7 teams. None of these teams face any real risk, barring some horrific injury luck, of being in the lottery, and I'd expect almost all to fall in the 20-29 range.
I do think the Dallas picks are the most interesting of this group, if only for the reason that I don't think anyone would have projected the Pistons picks to be particularly valuable 4 seasons ago, but the Kyrie stip definitely introduces a variable unique to the Mavericks as far as this list is concerned. Those are the only picks in this group with a lot of real upside in my opinion, even though that upside is not particularly likely to come to fruition.
There are also some arguments for some picks to be moved into the 1 category (2019 UTA, 2018 NYK probably are the most likely?) but I think the Jazz and Timberwolves are far and away better than the rest of the league this season, so I don't mind keeping them in a tier of their own.
The Reasons Jesse Claims that 400 RP is Worth a FRP
Every year, someone trades into the end of the first round for a nominal sum of RP, and every year, Jesse files it away for use in a future negotiation. Only two picks fall into this category, but I'd be surprised if either of these falls below 25 overall.
2018 MIN (GSW)
2018 UTA (LAL)
Wrapping Up
Ah, but we aren't done yet! We still have to find out whose sack is laced with the smooth silk of Pentos, and whose is patched together with rough burlap crafted below the whorehouses of Fleabottom. Yes, I've been rewatching GoT - had to do something to get the taste of House of the Dragon out of my mouth.
By Total Points
The Bullets are sitting on some great picks, despite only having 4 of them in their sack - they lead the league in Total Sack Value. The highest Average Sack Value, however, goes to the Magic / Raptors / Kings in a 3 way tie, as they have no room in their sack for anything besides solid gold. On the other hand, the Bucks, Sonics, and Warriors have several picks but have the lowest Average Sack Value among teams with more than 1 pick. Here is Average Sack Value:
There you have it! Please remember to like and subscribe and tell me where I'm wrong and stupid and biased in the comments. Here's to TC!
There are 41 first rounders that are owed to different teams around the league. Before we begin, let's remind ourselves of relative sack size:
| Team | Count |
|---|---|
| MIL | 7 |
| SEA | 7 |
| GSW | 4 |
| WAS | 4 |
| CHI | 4 |
| TOR | 3 |
| LAL | 2 |
| SAC | 2 |
| ORL | 2 |
| CLE | 2 |
| POR | 2 |
| PHI | 1 |
| DET | 1 |
| HOU | 1 |
Let's go group by group and examine some of the more interesting owed firsts:
The Solid Gold
At this point in time, I think there are more "Solid Gold" picks than there ever have been, and likely will be for a long time - mostly as a result of Kyrie's wackiness, unlucky resigning luck in Houston, and reasonable aggressive GMing to maximize LeBron's prime. Before we dive in, I think it's worth defining what "solid gold" really means in this context - I don't think that these picks are likely to be top 5 pre-lotto. I think all of these picks probably top out at the 8 or 9 pre lotto range, and would require some heavy luck to turn into actual solid gold assets come draft day. This is mostly just based on the fact that there are usually around 7 tankers a year at least, and it's pretty easy to put together a better-than-tank-quality team if you're trying to.
Without further ado, here are the 5s:
PHI 2018 (owed to LAL)
DET 2018 (SAC)
DET 2019 (ORL)
PHI 2019 (TOR, swap rights)
HOU 2019 (WAS)
PHI 2020 (CHI)
DET 2020 (SAC)
DET 2021 (ORL)
PHI 2021 (TOR)
DET 2022 (CHI)
PHI 2022 (WAS)
The 76ers and Pistons picks make up almost all of this list, as they conveyed the 9th and 10th overall picks in this year's draft (Derrick White and De'Aaron Fox). It's pretty rare for the expected outcome of an owed pick to be lottery, but I think that's the baseline for both of these teams until we see something different. For the 76ers, LeBron is entering his age 33 season, and it's unlikely that he'll age as gracefully in FBB as he did IRL. For the Pistons, there are some young guys that should have potential that could keep the team in playoff contention if they hit (Dejounte Murray, Draymond Green, even Jordan Clarkson), but without any assets to play with, I think somewhere in the 8-15 range is likely for these picks, with an upside case for a top 3 with lotto luck and not much of a downside case. The Rockets pick next year should also be gold, with Arenas likely to retire after his age 36 season with his contract expiring. There are some pieces in place to field a competitive team, and Nolan did what he could in free agency after Curry and Griffin walked by signing Gortat to a nice deal, but without cap space or a real reason to trade future assets, I think his 18 pick will almost certainly be lotto.
The Trade Chips
This group of picks is smaller and anyone holding one of these will have you believe it's Solid Gold as they try to sell it to you. In normal circumstances, these would likely be some of the more valuable non-player assets in the league. Here are the 4s:
HOU 2018 (WAS)
CHI 2019 (CLE)
CHI 2020 (CLE)
POR 2021 (WAS)
UTA 2021 (POR)
CHI 2021 (GSW)
UTA 2022 (POR)
There definitely is some stratification in this group, as Houston 2018 is certainly more valuable than the Jazz picks. But I think there is a case to be made for each of these picks to end up in the lottery, which I don't think is quite as likely for the picks in the 3 category. For the Jazz (one of two teams that owe a pick that I considered a 1 for this exercise), these picks having a chance to be good is simply a cost of doing business - they needed to bring in a PG last offseason to capitalize on their window with Oden / Hefty / Marvin, and similarly, needed to accept some heavy resigning offers to ensure the biggest possible bites at the apple. The downside is that in 2020 (before the 2021 draft), Jameer will likely be retired, and they'll owe 59 million combined to 33 year old Oden, 36 year old Jefferson, and 34 year old Marvin, and unless Ralph wants to lever himself further, I'm not sure how they put together a competitive roster around those 3 players.
The CHI picks that are floating around in the ether are similarly valuable - my helter-skelter tank job is unlikely to result in a top 5 pick, and the most fool-proof way to flip your team into a contender is to draft a superstar (see: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetekounmpo, Anthony Davis, etc.). Without a top 5 pick, the margin of error is wayyyy smaller, and I could easily be conveying lotto picks to Mantypas and Clint.
The HOU pick was discussed above, and I think is a borderline 5 - but with Arenas in tow this season I could see the Rockets competing for the 8 seed out West. The Portland pick is interesting too - they're building organically and should be able to get a couple top picks to pair with Lauri, who I like a lot, but man...they're set to pay 35 year old Dwight 30.7m in 2021. With all that cash Dwight's probably gonna have too much meat to think about to focus on basketball.
The Of Course...But Maybes?!?
Louis CK has a hilarious routine (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLGzFQg_1xc) where he talks about things that he knows to be true, but then has an intrusive thought about - if you haven't seen it, do yourself a favor. I think that's apt for this group, outlined below:
2020 UTA (SEA)
2020 CLE (SEA)
2020 PHX (CHI)
2021 CLE (SEA)
2022 ORL (CHI)
2019 SA (TOR)
Of COURSE, Cleveland has a nice young core, Zach Lavine looks promising, Nerlens is one of the best young big butts the league has to offer, OG was a nice defensive complement to Lavine, DLo looks promising, and they're building organically. Of course. BUT MAYBE...a backcourt of Lavine and Dlo averaging 6+ TOs per 36 and no frontcourt is cause for concern?
Of course, the Suns are gonna win like 65 games this year. Of course, Tyler has like a million GMOTYs and is about to win another after trading for arguably the most impactful player in the league in his prime. BUT MAYBE...36 year old McCants and 35 year old Livingtson making 52.5M in 2020 is gonna make it hard to build around? Maybe there's already 76m accounted for on the Suns cap sheet in 2020 for 6 players and it's gonna be pretty tough to maneuver your way into a top seed?
OF COURSE, the Magic have a former 2nd overall pick going into his 3rd season, Kawhi Leonard in his absolute prime post-shooting camp, and plenty of prospects in Caruso / Smart / Randle. Of course, Merv is one of the most active GMs and has plenty of assets at his disposal to improve this roster over the next few years. BUT MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, Kawhi like isn't that good? Maybe it's going tough to win with Dubious Handle coughing it up 3 times per 36?
The Non-Lottos
This group is pretty boring - it's mostly filled with teams that were already decent and then traded their own picks to either add a star or improve around the edges. And also all the Kings picks are in this group.
2018 SAC (GSW)
2018 ATL (PHI)
2018 NYK (MIL)
2019 NYK (GSW)
2019 UTA (SEA)
2019 BOS (MIL)
2019 ATL (MIL)
2019 DAL (MIL)
2020 SA (SEA)
2020 SAC (SEA)
2020 ATL (MIL)
2020 DAL (DET)
2021 ATL (MIL)
2021 SAC (SEA)
2021 DAL (MIL)
2022 SAC (HOU)
Despite 15 picks being in this group, they only will be conveyed collectively by 7 teams. None of these teams face any real risk, barring some horrific injury luck, of being in the lottery, and I'd expect almost all to fall in the 20-29 range.
I do think the Dallas picks are the most interesting of this group, if only for the reason that I don't think anyone would have projected the Pistons picks to be particularly valuable 4 seasons ago, but the Kyrie stip definitely introduces a variable unique to the Mavericks as far as this list is concerned. Those are the only picks in this group with a lot of real upside in my opinion, even though that upside is not particularly likely to come to fruition.
There are also some arguments for some picks to be moved into the 1 category (2019 UTA, 2018 NYK probably are the most likely?) but I think the Jazz and Timberwolves are far and away better than the rest of the league this season, so I don't mind keeping them in a tier of their own.
The Reasons Jesse Claims that 400 RP is Worth a FRP
Every year, someone trades into the end of the first round for a nominal sum of RP, and every year, Jesse files it away for use in a future negotiation. Only two picks fall into this category, but I'd be surprised if either of these falls below 25 overall.
2018 MIN (GSW)
2018 UTA (LAL)
Wrapping Up
Ah, but we aren't done yet! We still have to find out whose sack is laced with the smooth silk of Pentos, and whose is patched together with rough burlap crafted below the whorehouses of Fleabottom. Yes, I've been rewatching GoT - had to do something to get the taste of House of the Dragon out of my mouth.
By Total Points
| Team | Sum |
|---|---|
| WAS | 18 |
| SEA | 17 |
| CHI | 16 |
| MIL | 14 |
| TOR | 13 |
| ORL | 10 |
| SAC | 10 |
| GSW | 9 |
| CLE | 8 |
| POR | 8 |
| LAL | 6 |
| PHI | 2 |
| DET | 2 |
| HOU | 2 |
| Team | Average |
|---|---|
| ORL | 5 |
| SAC | 5 |
| WAS | 4.5 |
| TOR | 4.33333 |
| CHI | 4 |
| CLE | 4 |
| POR | 4 |
| LAL | 3 |
| SEA | 2.428571429 |
| GSW | 2.25 |
| MIL | 2 |
| PHI | 2 |
| DET | 2 |
| HOU | 2 |
Article: Sack Value
Nobody wants my solid gold or my maybes. It’s nothing but depression in Orlando. 24/7
Article: Sack Value
Ooooo I gotta compute the kings / sonics deal
Pistons 18 for sac 20 21 ut 19 20
Who is the winner Matt!?
Pistons 18 for sac 20 21 ut 19 20
Who is the winner Matt!?
Article: Sack Value
Convinced Matt only wrote this article to sneak in the Dwight thinking about meat line
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