2016-2017 Adjusted True Shooting

[Josh]

I've always had a hard time evaluating the impact and value of high volume, high TO players. Tim Hardaway Jr is a great example this year - super efficient scorer but a pretty awful stock differential. Would a player with the same volume shooting 46% with neutral TO differential be better?

Given that assists / passing don't matter much in SLN, a player's impact on offense is limited to shooting and turning the ball over (ignoring offensive rebounding because it is impacted by the rebounding ability from the rest of the team). With this thinking, a turnover is equivalent to a missed FGA (actually, a turnover is probably worse because a missed FGA could lead to an offensive rebound).

I thought it would be interesting to calculate an adjusted true shooting percentage if a turnover counted as a FGA. Using last year's full season data, there were some big risers and fallers. Kyrie, CJ Miles and Boban remain near the tip top, but Dame, Lin, Oj Mayo, and CP3 are big losers. KD gets a nice boost here.

If we're taking TOs into account, it's only natural to consider steals. If Jrue is penalized for having 2.5 TOs, you can argue the stat should benefit from his 2.8 steals. With each steal counting as a point (thinking that a steal = a possession = roughly a point), you get my adjusted TS% #2. Yaroslav and Rudy look like great players here. And hmmmm, interesting how my starting SG ends up with the #1 spot here A+ defense hell yeah

Tim Hardaway Jr is rocking a 61.9% TS% this year - higher than anyone's TS% last year and would be the 8th best of all time in SLN. However, when adjusted for turnovers, he would be ~5th in the league last season, and when accounting for steals, he could be #14. Long way of saying, still pretty good.

Of course, this analysis ignores rebounding and positional defense - 2 things that matter greatly. Ready for the real nba analytics nerds guys to tell me why this sucks!

Rank	Player	Team	TS%	PPG	Steals	Turnovers	Adjusted TS% #1 - Adds TOs as a FGA	Adjusted TS% Rank	Adjusted TS% #2 - Adds TOs as a FGA Adds Steals as a Point	Adjusted TS% Rank
1	Kyrie Irving	Mavericks	60.9%	31.3	1.6	1.6	57.4%	1	60.4%	2
2	Ben Gordon	Timberwolves	60.5%	14.0	1.0	1.3	54.3%	10	58.4%	6
3	CJ Miles	Grizzlies	60.0%	31.1	1.5	1.6	56.6%	2	59.4%	3
4	Boban Marjanovic	Kings	59.7%	29.6	0.7	1.7	55.8%	3	57.0%	14
5	Von Wafer	SuperSonics	59.4%	11.2	1.3	1.7	50.3%	49	55.9%	22
6	Damian Lillard	Heat	59.1%	23.2	1.2	2.7	52.0%	24	54.6%	41
7	Dwyane Wade	Heat	59.1%	25.1	1.5	1.8	54.5%	8	57.8%	11
8	Kevin Love	Spurs	59.0%	27.5	0.7	1.5	55.4%	5	56.8%	18
9	Steph Curry	Nuggets	58.9%	31.4	2.3	2.3	54.2%	11	58.2%	8
10	Lou Williams	Nets	58.8%	26.9	1.9	1.8	54.4%	9	58.3%	7
11	Kevin Durant	Hawks	58.7%	32.5	1.8	1.5	55.7%	4	58.8%	4
12	Jeremy Lin	Mavericks	58.7%	21.5	1.7	2.2	52.3%	20	56.3%	19
13	OJ Mayo	Trail Blazers	58.3%	13.8	1.0	2.0	49.7%	63	53.2%	62
14	Yaroslav Korolev	Raptors	58.3%	21.3	2.4	1.9	52.8%	17	58.7%	5
15	Jrue Holiday	Pacers	58.2%	24.8	2.8	2.5	52.2%	21	58.1%	10
16	Tyreke Evans	Hawks	58.2%	27.9	1.8	1.8	54.1%	12	57.6%	12
17	Rudy Fernandez	Rockets	58.0%	23.4	1.8	1.5	54.0%	13	58.1%	9
18	Marvin Williams	Jazz	58.0%	32.9	1.2	1.5	55.1%	6	57.0%	15
19	Thabo Sefolosha	Grizzlies	57.6%	14.3	1.9	0.9	53.8%	14	61.0%	1
20	Carmelo Anthony	Nuggets	57.6%	29.9	1.3	1.3	54.8%	7	57.3%	13
21	Chris Paul	Rockets	57.5%	16.8	2.0	3.4	46.8%	109	52.4%	81
22	Buddy Hield	Suns	57.5%	14.1	0.7	1.1	52.7%	18	55.4%	28
23	Yao Ming	Kings	57.5%	18.3	0.7	2.1	50.8%	39	52.7%	75
24	Rudy Gay	Knicks	57.5%	25.6	1.7	2.5	51.7%	29	55.0%	34
25	Tony Parker	Raptors	57.5%	29.1	1.9	2.8	51.8%	26	55.3%	30

[Merv]

Low volume Grizzly in article discussing high volume guys ending up #1 smells awfully fishy, like Josh left all his salmon out!

But yes, CJ Miles is good. Sad I traded him all those years ago.

[bpankin]

Ben Gordon not dead?!? 🫨

[Jesse]

Not enough Boban talk

[Kipke]

750 RP