POD: Many Men in the Morning

[jwoo]

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JWoo Tyler Heimer and Chad XCX go around the league and discuss a wide range of teams that don’t always get airtime! Consider it a quasi season preview but also some offseason discussion too. Very fun pod even tho I feel sick (tested negative for Covid tho)

[Tyler]

Topics discussed:
- Julius Randle and the circus on the boards yesterday
- Trailblazers
- Magic
- Who will be better this year, Cavs or Bulls?
- Are the raptors actually disrespected or is this completely fake news?
- Tides turning in the pacific? warriors/Lakers/Sonics
- Rosé all day — where is a good landing spot for this man?

[pacers]

CHAD XCX

[Matt]

We're gonna play around with DCs. The goal is to win as many games as possible this year - I don't really care about "finding out what I have" with Luka because if he isn't good i'm fucked anyway lol. Luka is going to be a Bull for the next 10 seasons almost assuredly, and he's going to get supercamped so I'll have time next season to figure out how I want to camp him.

The one wrinkle is the anniversary bonus...which changes the equation a bit, because I probably am going to use both +5s on Luka and don't know if I want to rely on my scouts as the main source of info. So now there's a bit more of a benefit to seeing what his strengths/weaknesses are

[bpankin]

merv = brat

[Jordo]

CHAD XCX

Not to be confused with Chad GPT

[Hoff]

I had 2 S&T offers out for Randle but went to mostly every GM with cap space (the rest turned me down). I thought with low turnovers from Jimmy and Kyrie, Randle could fit well at 3. At the end of the day, I learned I was way overpaying for him and didn’t want to do the same S&T deals I had originally.

[quady]

Imo you do the Randle or Parker deals 10 times out of 10

[pacers]

just finished listening to this one. @Tyler to answer your question on what I'm aiming for in switching DCs every sim (standard disclaimers that this is just my approach, I'm not an expert, etc):
- My goals by the end of the season, in order, are: 1/ to get into the playoffs, 2/ to have enough data to feel confident taking one series off anyone, and 3/ getting a high seed.
- I switch up my DC to get a good understanding of downside variance and upside variance for player x position x setting (trap, press, etc) x matchup combinations. I just dump every box score into my analysis spreadsheet and it cascades out automatically. https://www.simleaguenirvana.com/viewtopic.php?t=1902
- I feel comfortable with a particular player x player matchup after 4 games and a player in a certain position (independent of matchup) after 10 games. So I'll look at the upcoming games, particularly which teams I'm likely to play in the playoffs, see what data I have already (from this season and past seasons), then set the DC.
- Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have more data than one additional home game (unless I have enough data from past seasons to feel good about the different combinations I could run in the series). Obviously sometimes this doesn't work in my favor, - e.g. I'm pretty sure I would have gotten out of the first round last season If I had home court advantage.

So, for example on the above - through the 16-17 regular season I had a good sense that every increased notch in press drops Jrue's PPP by ~0.05 but also suppresses opposing guard volume by a certain amount. So after Jerebko went off in the first sim of the finals as backup PG I increased press and that seemed to solve it.

Hope that answers it!

[jwoo]

believe all leftover pods need grades still @Joe @Nav @whoever is grading, would be great to have that before camps run so we can all be square