How Valuable Are Your Picks? Part 2 for 2 year anniversary
How Valuable Are Your Picks? Part 2 for 2 year anniversary
How Valuable are Your Picks? - A Two Year Anniversary Review[/b]
Yo! Back again with a brand new edition… after the 2009 draft I posted an article that broke down how valuable other teams picks are that are not yours!
Note: I tried to exclude all trade ups / backs or picks for player trades after the value was clear (like Jordo trading pick 4 for Kevin Love). I tried to isolate these picks to true futures that were conveyed.
Link to that article below:
https://simleaguenirvana.proboards.com/ ... tical-deep
TLDR Key findings from last article:
Average pick conveyed: 19.1
Median: 20
Mode: 26
Standard deviation: 7
Range: 28
% of top 10 picks conveyed: 12%
% of top 5 picks conveyed: 5%
In honor of our two year anniversary, I wanted to add in the data from the past 10 drafts so we can see how the league has changed since 2009? Have we wised up? Have we been more or less risk averse? Has there been any change at all? Are picks that you don’t control the destiny of worthwhile at all? Who’s picks have been worth the most over the last decade?
Key Metrics from 2010 - 2018:
Average pick conveyed: 19.4
Median: 20
Mode: 29
Standard Deviation: 6.4
Range: 26
Total Picks conveyed: 136
% of top 10 picks conveyed: 11%
% of top 5 picks conveyed: 1.5%
Macro takeaways:
At a high level, it appears like the league has become even sharper but just a hair (not sure it is statistically significant), the average pick conveyed has gotten slightly worse 19.1 vs 19.4 over time. The median is the exact same and the dispersion has tightened slightly. Interesting the number of top 5 picks has gone way down from 5% to 1.5%, this is likely due to less lotto luck and crazy jumps over the past 10 drafts and Mitchell leaving the league.
Picks conveyed by team 1997 - 2018:
Picks conveyed by team 2010 - 2018:
Overall takeaway:
Other teams picks are still not worth shit!! Don’t be dumb and trade Greg Oden for Darko and 3 Jazz picks like I did!! I hope when dealing, people realize it is not hard to bomb picks (look at the 2018 - 2019 Bulls). Unless the team has serious retirement risk and is totally over leveraged, the pick is likely to result in fellas that go to the NDL and die in the NDL. The names of some of the people picked around 19/20 are hilarious.
When valuing picks, there is not much value difference between pick 19 and pick 27, as the drafts flatten, become less obvious who will be good, and we have less info (no draft profiles) for these guys. It’s why the NBA pick value curve is exponential with the picks at the top being WAYYYY more valuable assets than anything outside of the lotto. As I mentioned in the last article, even if the team does convey a lottery pick, you have to win the lottery (like Scoops did with the T Wolves pick jumping to 2 to get Dame). Lottery picks that have been conveyed in the past have also resulted in players like Norman Powell and Derrick Williams (despite Joe’s current effort to sell this bum, he is still very much a bum).
I’d love for this article to spark discussion and even more spark a trade market and produce less COWARDS (as Skillz would say). I do think there is value in holding a teams picks if you are targeting a certain player down the future, but I don’t think there is as much value in picking Luke Cormet and letting him die in the NDL.
Google sheet of data if you want to play around with it:
Yo! Back again with a brand new edition… after the 2009 draft I posted an article that broke down how valuable other teams picks are that are not yours!
Note: I tried to exclude all trade ups / backs or picks for player trades after the value was clear (like Jordo trading pick 4 for Kevin Love). I tried to isolate these picks to true futures that were conveyed.
Link to that article below:
https://simleaguenirvana.proboards.com/ ... tical-deep
TLDR Key findings from last article:
Average pick conveyed: 19.1
Median: 20
Mode: 26
Standard deviation: 7
Range: 28
% of top 10 picks conveyed: 12%
% of top 5 picks conveyed: 5%
In honor of our two year anniversary, I wanted to add in the data from the past 10 drafts so we can see how the league has changed since 2009? Have we wised up? Have we been more or less risk averse? Has there been any change at all? Are picks that you don’t control the destiny of worthwhile at all? Who’s picks have been worth the most over the last decade?
Key Metrics from 2010 - 2018:
Average pick conveyed: 19.4
Median: 20
Mode: 29
Standard Deviation: 6.4
Range: 26
Total Picks conveyed: 136
% of top 10 picks conveyed: 11%
% of top 5 picks conveyed: 1.5%
Macro takeaways:
At a high level, it appears like the league has become even sharper but just a hair (not sure it is statistically significant), the average pick conveyed has gotten slightly worse 19.1 vs 19.4 over time. The median is the exact same and the dispersion has tightened slightly. Interesting the number of top 5 picks has gone way down from 5% to 1.5%, this is likely due to less lotto luck and crazy jumps over the past 10 drafts and Mitchell leaving the league.
Picks conveyed by team 1997 - 2018:
Picks conveyed by team 2010 - 2018:
Overall takeaway:
Other teams picks are still not worth shit!! Don’t be dumb and trade Greg Oden for Darko and 3 Jazz picks like I did!! I hope when dealing, people realize it is not hard to bomb picks (look at the 2018 - 2019 Bulls). Unless the team has serious retirement risk and is totally over leveraged, the pick is likely to result in fellas that go to the NDL and die in the NDL. The names of some of the people picked around 19/20 are hilarious.
When valuing picks, there is not much value difference between pick 19 and pick 27, as the drafts flatten, become less obvious who will be good, and we have less info (no draft profiles) for these guys. It’s why the NBA pick value curve is exponential with the picks at the top being WAYYYY more valuable assets than anything outside of the lotto. As I mentioned in the last article, even if the team does convey a lottery pick, you have to win the lottery (like Scoops did with the T Wolves pick jumping to 2 to get Dame). Lottery picks that have been conveyed in the past have also resulted in players like Norman Powell and Derrick Williams (despite Joe’s current effort to sell this bum, he is still very much a bum).
I’d love for this article to spark discussion and even more spark a trade market and produce less COWARDS (as Skillz would say). I do think there is value in holding a teams picks if you are targeting a certain player down the future, but I don’t think there is as much value in picking Luke Cormet and letting him die in the NDL.
Google sheet of data if you want to play around with it:
Last edited by Tyler on September 17th, 2024, 5:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Love the analysis
Curious how this would spark a trade market though, it seems you’re advocating people don’t make trades because picks are bad
Curious how this would spark a trade market though, it seems you’re advocating people don’t make trades because picks are bad
Also why is Luke Kornet catching strays??
yeah idk im just trying to get RPs
Also Norman Powell looks solid!
I feel like solid guys def come out of the 19-27 range
I feel like solid guys def come out of the 19-27 range
I guess I have a hunch teams (like myself) are extra wary of over leveraging themselves and are hesitant to trade their futures. My point is if you trade your futures, you can still tank those picks pretty easy. But you make a good point, I guess you hope that the trade partner did not read this article and thinks your picks are valuable
Last edited by Tyler on September 17th, 2024, 6:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Solid guys def come out of that range but there are just as many, if not more players, that get picked in that range and suck ass forever
Norman Powell was selected at the 4th highest pick conveyed out of 136 conveyed picks since 2009. He is far from a starter on a contender is my point.
That's actually a crazy stat
If Derrick Williams is so bad, how come the reigning champs barely squeaked out a 2 point win at home against us bums
get these guys off my team!
get these guys off my team!
I miss Manu
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