Team Statistics Correlation and Over/Under Achievers

Post by **Hoff** » March 3rd, 2024, 10:01 am

Now that we are coming up on the end of the season and just ahead of the trade deadline, thought I would do a league wide regression correlation test on all team statistics FBB tracks and we have access to.

All correlation is to Win % as of sim 90 for the 2011 season:

: Correlation Statistics.jpg (563.56 KiB) Viewed 325 times

Surprisingly, I thought defense would rank higher on correlation to win %, but the top half of the rankings is dominated by offensive statistics. It's obviously super important to score a lot of points (duh), play at a fast pace, and secure possessions (rebounds).

Additionally, I calculated the correlation between Win % and point differential. This resulted in a correlation of 97.7%.

: Point Differential Ranks.jpg (836.61 KiB) Viewed 325 times

The luckiest teams (rank difference >2) trying to win this season so far have been the Nuggets and Hornets. Other overachievers (rank difference = 2) trying to win this season so far have been the Bulls, Jazz, and Warriors.

The unluckiest teams trying to win this season so far have been the SuperSonics and Magic. Other underachievers trying to win this season so far have been the Bucks.

In terms of the tank race, the Lakers have been the biggest losers, but they don't have their pick. The overachievers have been Raptors and Kings.

Post by **Tyler** » March 3rd, 2024, 10:47 am

Surprised the Dallas analytics department is sharing this proprietary information! Great stuff Hoff

Post by **Tyler** » March 3rd, 2024, 10:48 am

Something tells me Nav had this information prior to now based on how he constructs his squads

Post by **Merv** » March 3rd, 2024, 11:02 am

I’d love to see this for the last few years as well. Would be interesting if the highest correlations held or not. Stockiness looks quite optional if you get buckets

Post by **Hoff** » March 3rd, 2024, 11:05 am

Merv wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2024, 11:02 am I’d love to see this for the last few years as well. Would be interesting if the highest correlations held or not. Stockiness looks quite optional if you get buckets

Afternoon project

Post by **Derek** » March 3rd, 2024, 1:52 pm

Love it!

Post by **Derek** » March 3rd, 2024, 1:52 pm

Scoring and rebounding are good

Post by **Derek** » March 3rd, 2024, 1:56 pm

Interesting to see assists higher up than things like steals or 3P%

Post by **heimer** » March 3rd, 2024, 5:24 pm

Tyler wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2024, 10:47 am Surprised the Dallas analytics department is sharing this proprietary information! Great stuff Hoff

this is dallas not toronto

Post by **jwoo** » March 3rd, 2024, 6:05 pm

heimer wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2024, 5:24 pm
Tyler wrote: ↑March 3rd, 2024, 10:47 am Surprised the Dallas analytics department is sharing this proprietary information! Great stuff Hoff
this is dallas not toronto

Damn right

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