Pod: Trade Deadline Action

Post by **Merv** » March 25th, 2025, 4:49 am

How do people actually view scouted potential? It feels like the thing people use to use confirmation bias on if a guy has upside or not but as far as I’ve been told, the correlation isn’t particularly good beyond high draft pick has high pot

Post by **Merv** » March 25th, 2025, 4:55 am

Re: Blazers being better out of nowhere

Lauri played 13 games last year. Shabazz breakout + Lauri healthy = more wins

Also, let’s normalize talking about more teams. Need Blazers Talk, need Warriors talk, need Heat talk, need Swamp talk…because more Steven is good for the league

Post by **heimer** » March 25th, 2025, 9:05 am

Merv wrote: March 25th, 2025, 4:55 am Re: Blazers being better out of nowhere

Lauri played 13 games last year. Shabazz breakout + Lauri healthy = more wins

Also, let’s normalize talking about more teams. Need Blazers Talk, need Warriors talk, need Heat talk, need Swamp talk…because more Steven is good for the league

could have spent another hour talking about these teams but this was mostly recapping trades. normalization not needed. blazers got a bit of chatter at the end. steven is great for the league but we need to see some moves to speak about moves !!

Post by **Matt** » March 25th, 2025, 11:48 am

Merv wrote: March 25th, 2025, 4:49 am How do people actually view scouted potential? It feels like the thing people use to use confirmation bias on if a guy has upside or not but as far as I’ve been told, the correlation isn’t particularly good beyond high draft pick has high pot

*disclaimer - i don't know any of what I'm about to say for certain*

In our old league, the commish didn't really take that much time to make sure that scouted potential in the draft file correlated with actual potential. My guess (unsubstantiated) is that when you create a player in FBB, scouted potential auto-generates, and then you can go in after the fact and change it? So my guess is that for the most part (with some purposeful obfuscations) scouted potential at the draft is relatively accurate, and every year of experience players have leads to more variance between scouted and actual potential, since Ashes isn't making sure that scouted potential mirrors real potential. In SLOR, since scouted potential was unreliable from year 0, it was almost completely unreliable as a predictor, but in SLN, I think it's a better indicator for younger players (still not perfect and Ashes can still trick us / plant some hidden gems for us to find).

Would love thoughts from ashes / jesse since they've actually been inside FBB!

Post by **Joe** » March 25th, 2025, 12:54 pm

Matt wrote: March 25th, 2025, 11:48 am
Merv wrote: March 25th, 2025, 4:49 am How do people actually view scouted potential? It feels like the thing people use to use confirmation bias on if a guy has upside or not but as far as I’ve been told, the correlation isn’t particularly good beyond high draft pick has high pot
Would love thoughts from ashes / jesse since they've actually been inside FBB!

ayo?

Post by **jwoo** » March 25th, 2025, 12:56 pm

Joe wrote: March 25th, 2025, 12:54 pm
Matt wrote: March 25th, 2025, 11:48 am
Merv wrote: March 25th, 2025, 4:49 am How do people actually view scouted potential? It feels like the thing people use to use confirmation bias on if a guy has upside or not but as far as I’ve been told, the correlation isn’t particularly good beyond high draft pick has high pot
Would love thoughts from ashes / jesse since they've actually been inside FBB!
ayo?