Page 1 of 2

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 2nd, 2024, 11:04 pm
by Merv
I was texting with someone today and was looking at old trades to get an idea of how the value of future picks really turned out so I figured why not write an article where we can see some of the initial reactions, what the picks became, and analyze if it really was good value or not. My goal through this hopefully partially amusing and interesting dive into SLN history will be to help inform and educate on a fair or unfair trade for studs.
Trade #1: AK47 becomes a Maverick
Mavericks Traded:
Antoine Walker
Lorenzen Wright
VAN 10 1st (16th Pick-Eric Bledsoe, TWolves)
VAN 11 1st (29th Pick-Aron Baynes, Raptors [Traded to MIA with MIN 12 FRP for Markieff Morris]
NYK 12 1st (24th Pick-Miles Plumlee, TWolves)
PHX 13 1st (21st Pick-Daniel Theis, TWolves)
PHI 13 1st (26th Pick-Kelly Olynyk, TWolves)
DAL 14 2nd (TBD, but likely in the 50s)

Timberwovles Traded:
Andrei Kirilenko
Initial Reactions
Jesse: A steal for the hoffmeister
Heimer: there goes ben’s wedding gift. only one for mollie now
JWoo: Image
Perception: The general perception at the time is that AK47 was worth a hell of a lot more than these 1sts and cap relief Pankin received from Hoff because it was unlikely these 1sts were going to be very high, and there were rumored to be large alternative offers on the table.

In Hindsight
Yeah, this is a pretty rough one for Pankin. Panned in real time, panned in hindsight. The perception would turn out correct that these picks wouldn't amount to much with only 1 of the 5 picks being above 20, and it was used on a guy who despite his NDL dominance, hasn't played a second in SLN and won't play in SLN under his rookie deal. The best player Pankin could've had in 2010 was Boban, 2011 was Cory Joseph, 2012 is TBD but the options are bad, and 2013 is too early to tell. For Hoff, AK has been great but some other moves may have set the Mavs between windows. A huge playoffs ahead.
Trade #2:Eddie Griffin to the Bulls
Bulls Traded:
Ben Gordon
Shane Battier
Lou Amundsen
Bulls 14 FRP (Trending to be mid-teens, Traded to Raptors for Devin Harris/KG)
Bulls 15 FRP (Trending to be mid-teens, Traded to Raptors for Devin Harris/KG)
Bulls 15 SRP
1000 RP

Cavs Traded:
Eddie Griffin
Reggie Evans
Initial Reactions
Jesse: Wow Merry Christmas to Matt, indeed! This is a nice fleece sweatshirt in Chicago
Ralph: 🫢
Weston: Bulls year?!
Perception: I felt like the general vibe at the time was that Matt completely fleeced Mantypas. Eddie Griffin was more or less what he is now, maybe slightly less efficient, and in his mid-late 20s. Another situation where people felt they'd been able to make or try to make larger, more compelling offers when a deal surprisingly got posted. I thought this was light, especially because I've rarely regarded Bulls picks as valuable because Tony Parker is an SLN god.

In Hindsight
Looking at it now, this was actually a pretty solid return for Mantypas. Could he have gotten more? Perhaps. But both Bulls picks might be in the prime NDL territory. Ben Gordon was really nice in Cleveland before getting traded for a 2016 1st. Lou Amundson turned into a pretty solid player before getting traded for 500 RP. Eddie Griffin eventually delivered a title after re-signing in Chicago so huge win for Matt. All in all, solid deal and the inspiration for this article
Trade #3: Eddy Curry Blockbuster
Suns Traded:
Eddy Curry

Rockets Traded:
Mike Conley
Balkman
Jason Terry
250rp
Hou 11 first (21st Pick-Alec Burks, MIA) [Traded to DEN for Cuttino Mobley]
Hou 12 first (14th Pick-Jeremy Lamb, TOR) [Traded to DET for Kenyon Martin]
Initial Reactions
Quady: curry / jamison / livingston is a bruising lineup [editor's note: it was]
JWoo: This is super fun for both teams
Derek: Nice return for Tyler. Rockets should be tough to play against though! [editor's note: holy hell they're tough]
Jesse: wow didn't see this till now, thats a lot of value for tyler!
Perception: Pretty fair deal all around. Conley had some haters, but I think most people felt the Rockets firsts could pay off if Conley didn't. Plus, everyone loved Balkman at the time who basically has been what he is now for a long time

In Hindsight
Home run for both teams? Conley blossomed into a studly PG who just got traded for all things Sonicks. Eddy Curry spearheads an inside offense in Houston that most people can't stop. It's been so so good for Nolan. Balkman was just fine for the Suns and is somehow still there. The picks were just fine but traded by Tyler in an effort to immediately retool that didn't really pan out. Conley as the centerpiece saves this deal for Tyler.
Trade #4: The Love Matrix
Blazers Traded:
Kevin Love
Marc Gasol
Mike Dunleavy
Carlos Boozer
Johan Petro
[Rudy Fernandez -- NDL*]
Sonics 2009 1st (17th Pick-Brandon Jennings, Kings)
Blazers 2013 1st (27th Pick-Alex Len, Magic) [Traded for David Lee]
Blazers 2014 1st (Trending for 29th) [Traded for Stephon Marbury]
Cavs 2011 2nd (38th pick-Chris Singleton, Kings)
400 Rp

Kangz Traded:
Shawn Marion --THE MATRIX --
Caron Butler
Nenad Kristic
[Glen "Big Baby" Davis -- NDL*]
Initial Reaction
Kipke: Wowowowowowowowowowowowo
Joe: Finally a real mf deal
Clinton: and Sam got Big Baby...lopsided trade. Trailblazers win
Bobby: How long did negotiations for this trade take? Chaos. I love it
Tyler: Artest market lookin strong to quite strong now [editor's note: it looked lovely]
Perception: It was a pretty huge price for Quady to pay at a time where the market was pretty dead. However, when you have Jameer ascend to stardom and land Dwight in FA, you go for it. Felt like one of those deals where you have to go for it because it tees you up for a title.

In Hindsight
Jesse traded basically every piece of this at some point, and some were quicker than others. Love and Dunleavy quickly turned into Ron Artest, who dominates in Sacramento. Brandon Jennings was just the centerpiece of the Tony Parker deal. Jesse probably wishes he still had Petro. Fernandez turned into an NDL stud and is now an absolute bucket getter. The Blazers firsts were predictably horrible. Marion and Butler turned the Blazers into perennial contenders but they haven't quite made it through to the finals yet. Quady traded Marion for a bunch of depth, so maybe that helps him get through. In retrospect, Jesse got two amazing prospects in Love and Fernandez but neither developed for Jesse and are both on their 4th team. Honestly, even though it was a huge price, I think this was pretty even.
Trade #5: The Pavlovic
Celtics Received:
MIL 08 FRP (15th Pick-Jerryd Bayless, Celtics)
MIL 09 FRP (23rd Pick-Sergio Llull, Bullets) [Traded for Kenyon Martin]

Hornets Received:
Sasha Pavlovic
Randy Foye
Pacers 08 FRP (10th Pick-Goran Dragic, Hornets)
Kings 09 FRP (26th Pick-Wayne Ellington, TWolves) [Traded for Jeff McInnis and Josh Howard]
Knicks 09 FRP (21st Pick-Jonas Jerebko, Nuggets) [Traded for Allen Iverson]
800 RPs

Bucks Received:
Gilbert Arenas
Mark Blount
Initial Reaction
Clinton: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Hoff: DAMN
JWoo: Yeesh
Nick: Amazing off-season for the bucks! Sans trading their 08 it was flawless. What’s the likelihood that 08 is a lotto pick I wonder?
Jesse: Sick 4 the bucks
Kipke: Offszn masterclass out in Milwaukee
Perception: So this happened as a 2 parter (MIL-BOS, MIL-CHA) but was more or less a 3-team deal. The price for Pavlovic seemed steep then he was immediately turned into the reigning MVP at the time and 2-time SLN champ Gilbert Arenas to go with a core of KD, Kwame, and LaMarcus. Everyone thought this deal was pretty bad for Jack and JWoo did like 7 pods going in about this trade.

In Hindsight
Joe hit the Pavlovic thing out of the park. He full on Prop Joe'd people into thinking Sasha was a budding star (he wasn't) and then even better, turned one of the Bucks picks into Kenyon Martin who was a key piece in finally making it the Celtics year for once. Milwaukee got their franchise PG for 5 firsts and Randy Foye. It's kind of funny because without doing this, I'd still say Derek smashed this trade, but there was a lot of good shit done with these picks by Joe and Jack. For Jack, he really did make some chicken salad out of chicken shit. The Pacers pick provided his new PG. The Kings pick became his long time rotational wing, Josh Howard, and the eventual matching salary with Knicks 09 to get Allen Iverson who was amazing in Charlotte. The real mistake Jack made was the gigantic contract Sasha would eventually receive but this deal on its face turned out pretty solid for all parties. Impressive GMing from Jack minus Pavlovic's current deal.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

What did we learn here? 1. I did this while watching the Knicks beat the 76ers and Jalen Brunson is ridiculously good. 2. Some of these trades can seem like they're terrible but GMs have a ton of leeway in the future to make moves and swing winning trades down the line. Honestly, aggression in trading a pick that you think might not be the best seems to be the best case scenario. The further off a pick was the better since it enabled GMs to sell that to other people in hopes they'd hit it big. 3. I'm not sure anything was learned but it was fun to go back and analyze a few older trades to see how they panned out over time.

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 9:38 am
by Joe
This was a v fun read. I would love to go back and look at some of the earliest trades from like the late 90s and do the same thing (if it’s even possible to remember the context)

Chicken salad out of chicken shit is pretty graphic tbh

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 9:59 am
by Hoff
The AK trade was a fun one the hash out. It took like 3 days because Pankin was moving I think? I was able to get the price down from 8 to 5 picks, and we got it done right before Michigan kicked off against Bama.

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 10:00 am
by Hoff
I wonder what all my picks I traded (I think Matt) for AI became!

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 10:45 am
by Josh
Hoff wrote: May 3rd, 2024, 9:59 am The AK trade was a fun one the hash out. It took like 3 days because Pankin was moving I think? I was able to get the price down from 8 to 5 picks, and we got it done right before Michigan kicked off against Bama.

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 11:08 am
by quady
whom amongst us had Rudy F as the best prospect going out in the Marion deal?

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 11:46 am
by Tyler
I remember Joe marketing the shit out of Sasha and Weston hit him with “sounds like the perfect bench piece for the Celtics. What gives Joe?”

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 11:58 am
by Hoff
Tyler wrote: May 3rd, 2024, 11:46 am I remember Joe marketing the shit out of Sasha and Weston hit him with “sounds like the perfect bench piece for the Celtics. What gives Joe?”
Gortits still the profile pic

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 12:00 pm
by Joe
Tyler wrote: May 3rd, 2024, 11:46 am I remember Joe marketing the shit out of Sasha and Weston hit him with “sounds like the perfect bench piece for the Celtics. What gives Joe?”
He was gonna be due a max and I couldnt afford him with Chauncey, TMac and Manu on the books! And he had the same ratings as DWade at the time to be clear

Major Trades Revisited: Was the Initial Reaction Correct and What is Good Value?

Posted: May 3rd, 2024, 12:14 pm
by jwoo
Joe wrote: May 3rd, 2024, 12:00 pm
Tyler wrote: May 3rd, 2024, 11:46 am I remember Joe marketing the shit out of Sasha and Weston hit him with “sounds like the perfect bench piece for the Celtics. What gives Joe?”
He was gonna be due a max and I couldnt afford him with Chauncey, TMac and Manu on the books! And he had the same ratings as DWade at the time to be clear
was he gonna be due a max tho