SLN Draft Lotto History - What are the odds?
Posted: May 13th, 2024, 4:44 pm
Kicked this idea around on the pod and finally got around to it today. Took a look at how the draft lotto has played out over the 18 (18!!!) draft lottos we’ve done as a league from 1997-2014.
The spreadsheet lists:
(1) the expected pick;
(2) the average actual draft position;
(3) the highest actual draft position to come from that expected slot with how many times it happened in parentheses; and
(4) the lowest actual draft spot to come from that expected spot and how often that has occurred.
The data in the spreadsheet is interesting for quite a few reasons but pulled some of the biggest takeaways out below.
Takeaway #1: D Morrel’s 2003 coup is still the wildest thing to happen in SLN lotto history.
DMo jumped from 12 to 1 with a traded pick to get LeBron. The #12 expected pick has jumped above the #12 actual draft spot ZERO of the other 17 draft lottos. That spot has never even jumped up one place any other time in SLN history. The next lowest expected spot to jump all the way up to #1 in the draft is the 6 spot. So expected picks 7, 8 ,9, 10, 11, and 13 have never done what DMo did for the 2003 draft. AND IT WAS FOR LEBRON.
Takeaway #2: The #1 expected pick has only turned into the #1 actual pick six times.
For all you tankers out there, it’s a 33% odds of staying at #1 in the draft. The #1 expected pick has fallen to #4 actual pick six separate times. So thus far, you’ve been as likely to pick at #4 as you are to hold onto the top spot.
Takeaway #3: Picks 8-13 basically never move more than one spot. To build on the first takeaway, consider this:
-Expected pick 8 has turned into actual pick 3 two times. It has been pick 8 or 9 the 16 other lottos.
-Expected pick 9 has turned into actual pick 3 once. It has become pick 9 or 10 the other 17 times.
-Expected pick 10 has *never* been anything other than actual pick 10 or 11.
-Expected pick 11 has *never* been anything other than actual pick 11 or 12
-Expected pick 12 turned into pick 1 for LeBron. It has been pick 12 or 13 the other 17 times.
-Expected pick 13 randomly went actual pick 3 and 2 back to back in the 2005/2006 drafts. It has been pick 13 the other 16 times.
To me, I expected these picks to jump around a little more. Like pick 8 becoming pick 11 occasionally and vice versa.
Takeaway #4: The #2 expected pick may be cursed.
It’s only jumped up to number one ONCE. But it’s fallen all the way to pick #5 three different times.
Takeaway #5: LeBron mania-aside, the craziest Draft Lotto we’ve likely ever had was in 2006.
Pankin jumped all the way from #13 to the second pick which was traded to Portland and became Rudy Gay. Grundle had the expected #4 spot and jumped up to #1 to take Brandon Roy. It was one of just three drafts we had where neither the expected #1 or #2 teams didn’t pick above pick #4. The other two times came in the 2009 and 2011 drafts but in both of those scenarios expected picks 9-13 were straight chalk homie.
Fun to write, fun to pull the data, hope y’all enjoy the read.
The spreadsheet lists:
(1) the expected pick;
(2) the average actual draft position;
(3) the highest actual draft position to come from that expected slot with how many times it happened in parentheses; and
(4) the lowest actual draft spot to come from that expected spot and how often that has occurred.
The data in the spreadsheet is interesting for quite a few reasons but pulled some of the biggest takeaways out below.
Takeaway #1: D Morrel’s 2003 coup is still the wildest thing to happen in SLN lotto history.
DMo jumped from 12 to 1 with a traded pick to get LeBron. The #12 expected pick has jumped above the #12 actual draft spot ZERO of the other 17 draft lottos. That spot has never even jumped up one place any other time in SLN history. The next lowest expected spot to jump all the way up to #1 in the draft is the 6 spot. So expected picks 7, 8 ,9, 10, 11, and 13 have never done what DMo did for the 2003 draft. AND IT WAS FOR LEBRON.
Takeaway #2: The #1 expected pick has only turned into the #1 actual pick six times.
For all you tankers out there, it’s a 33% odds of staying at #1 in the draft. The #1 expected pick has fallen to #4 actual pick six separate times. So thus far, you’ve been as likely to pick at #4 as you are to hold onto the top spot.
Takeaway #3: Picks 8-13 basically never move more than one spot. To build on the first takeaway, consider this:
-Expected pick 8 has turned into actual pick 3 two times. It has been pick 8 or 9 the 16 other lottos.
-Expected pick 9 has turned into actual pick 3 once. It has become pick 9 or 10 the other 17 times.
-Expected pick 10 has *never* been anything other than actual pick 10 or 11.
-Expected pick 11 has *never* been anything other than actual pick 11 or 12
-Expected pick 12 turned into pick 1 for LeBron. It has been pick 12 or 13 the other 17 times.
-Expected pick 13 randomly went actual pick 3 and 2 back to back in the 2005/2006 drafts. It has been pick 13 the other 16 times.
To me, I expected these picks to jump around a little more. Like pick 8 becoming pick 11 occasionally and vice versa.
Takeaway #4: The #2 expected pick may be cursed.
It’s only jumped up to number one ONCE. But it’s fallen all the way to pick #5 three different times.
Takeaway #5: LeBron mania-aside, the craziest Draft Lotto we’ve likely ever had was in 2006.
Pankin jumped all the way from #13 to the second pick which was traded to Portland and became Rudy Gay. Grundle had the expected #4 spot and jumped up to #1 to take Brandon Roy. It was one of just three drafts we had where neither the expected #1 or #2 teams didn’t pick above pick #4. The other two times came in the 2009 and 2011 drafts but in both of those scenarios expected picks 9-13 were straight chalk homie.
Fun to write, fun to pull the data, hope y’all enjoy the read.
