Proposal for Modernized Lottery Odds (with FAQ)

[LeBronto]

Esteemed SLN GMs,

Ashes let me know over the weekend that he is open to the idea (which I've discussed many times on podcasts) of flattening the lottery odds to reflect how the real life NBA draft lottery now works in this modern era. I wanted to push this idea out to everyone ASAP as I think it will help solve some of the issues and incentives around being completely ass.

What's the really quick explanation of the proposal?

Quick historical context: the 2019 draft (which we are currently approaching) was the first draft where the NBA adopted this new lottery system. The purpose of these changes:

-Disincentivize tanking/the need to be embarrassingly bad by giving the teams with the three worst records the same odds to win the lotto.

-Allow for the top four picks, not just the top three, to be determined by lottery, allowing more teams an opportunity to move up in the draft

-Introduce an additional layer of randomness and intrigue to the draft that also offers teams in the mid-lottery a better chance at landing a franchise-changing player.

I think we currently have some market liquidity issues around tanking where bad teams have to avoid accumulating talent in order to be as bad as possible. It makes it harder for tankers to take on salary or even value mid-tier prospects as developmental pieces because every year there are 2-3 teams that completely gut it and undercut your tank attempt.

The idea here is to make tanking more challenging (while still a very viable route to long-term success) and encourage/enable bad teams to properly enjoy the process of roster building without being afraid of having a randomly great sim that totally fucks your shot at the No. 1 pick. Teams will still tank - but the difference in the odds value weighted on each spot is much less drastic. It also lessens the reward placed on the strategy of "I'm gonna start NDL players!"

So what does it look like?

Per Ashes, these are the FBB standard odds for the No. 1 pick

1 - 25%
2 - 20%
3 - 15%
4 - 12%
5 - 9%
6 - 7%
7 - 5%
8 - 3%
9 - 2%
10 - 1%
11 - .7%
12 - .6%
13 - .5%

Our new odds for No. 1 would be something like this:

1 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
2 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
3 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
4 - 12.6% chance at No. 1, 48.4% chance top four
5 - 10.6% chance at No. 1, 42.4% chance top four
6 - 9% chance at No. 1, 37.5% chance top four
7 - 7.5% chance at No. 1, 32.1 chance top four
8 - 6% chance at No. 1, 26.5% chance top four
9 - 4.5% chance at No. 1, 20.5% chance top four
10 - 3% chance at No. 1, 13.9% chance top four
11 - 2% chance at No. 1, 9.5% chance top four
12 - 1.5% chance at No. 1, 7.2% chance top four
13 - 1% chance at No. 1, 4.8% chance top four

If you want to visualize further — the below link, you can find a handy lottery simulator that reflects the changes to the system. Ashes would use this to conduct the lottery. This simulator will also manually allow us to adjust the odds and account for ties in the 4-13 spots.

https://zengm.com/universal-draft-lottery-simulator/

Key things to know:

-The three worst teams have a 14.1% chance to win the lottery, still the best chance — but there is a much broader chance for people drafting further down to move up in the order. It's a more balanced system that still favors the worst teams, but also makes tanking a more nebulous process that can take many years.

-Order of finish matters in establishing the default order - if you have the worst record, the absolute worst you can pick is fifth, second-worst is sixth, etc

-Ties will have to be broken manually via coin flip (fun fact, it's actually how the NBA does it)

-This change would also allow us to run the lottery on our own during the playoffs if we want (as opposed to it having to occur right after the finals), giving teams more time to research the draft, send scouting reports and prepare.

What would the new logistical process be?

-FBB is archaic, so in order for this process to work, the pick sequence will have to be manually traded between teams after the game runs its lottery. Ashes understandably wants to have minimal work to do with this, so we need to streamline this for him.

The lottery will be run by Ashes online using the simulator.

HOWEVER - it will be someone else's task to manage the logistical process leading up to that. To handle that, I would propose the creation of a Lotto Mod job (this should be a solid RP reward because it requires a lot of attention to detail and promptness)

Here's an example of how the lotto process would work.

—Lotto Mod monitors lotto odds during the season and sends periodic projections/updates to the league (maybe every 30 days for funsies, their discretion)

—After the final regular season sim, Ashes breaks ties manually via coin flip to establish the final order. Lotto Mod then balances/finalizes odds structure accounting for ties.

—24 hours or so later after ties are broken, Ashes runs the lottery (he can also sim the combine and open up scouting reports if he wants, which takes place the week of the lotto IRL).

—Following the lotto, the lotto mod works with Ashes to determine which selections should be traded to which team (this is the most annoying part but shouldn't be that bad).

What now?

—I'd turn this next phase over to Tong who is overseeing the formal rules proposal process so we can figure out how to enact a vote, etc.

—While I think there is a case for this to be adopted in the 2019 draft, in order to mirror the IRL NBA, realistically for fairness we might need to focus on 2020 or 2021 just to allow teams time to properly strategize and prepare for a large-scale change to the lotto system.

—It seems like people generally are open to the realism and basic balance incentives this brings, but obviously we need to discuss and have due process.

I personally think this would be a huge help to some of what ails our league in terms of competitive incentives, balance, and the often one-track nature of rebuilds (it becomes viable to collect prospects, sign smart contracts, use FA to build, rather than just gutting your roster and starting bums until you get a stud), without changing anything significant about what we love about FBB.

Thanks everyone for reading (this took me longer than I expected to write out) and I'd be happy to discuss any questions either on the forums here or on the side. Having a real-life proxy for how this impacts the draft should make it easier to understand and hopefully buy in on.

[Tyler]

If Ashes is down, I think this is a great idea at first glance

[Tyler]

Think we’d need to impose some fines for sim days 100-120 for intentional tanking a la IRL Mavericks

[LeBronto]

I’ll formally move this to the democracy inaction thread later. Working with Tong

[Concepts of a Plan]

All in. Will make tanking more fun because you can actually try guys/stuff out without being heavily penalized

[Hoff]

Love this

[scoops]

i'm in for this

[Wes]

Im in and vote to implement this season!

[Josh]

all for it

[Jordo]

Totally on board

And will throw my hat in the ring for Lotto Mod, as a GM who never has FRPs you know the odds will never be biased