SLN Mad Money Ratings
Posted: December 12th, 2024, 12:33 am
SLN Mad Money: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
There’s been a lot of talk on pods about who should be buying and selling and who’s been sitting on their hands so long they’re ready to give themselves a Stranger, so I figured a little Op Ed on the trade market couldn’t hurt. In this piece of totally non-self-interested propaganda, I break down what I think each team SHOULD be doing and what they’ve got on hand to be doing it with. I know, it’s not exactly Mad Money because the ratings are what the teams (not investors) should do, but this title/structure will get way more clicks and who knows, maybe a better grade from those wise and generous gentlemen who dole out the content RP at the end of the year.
For the most valuable trade assets, I only included stuff that I think that team could or should trade, depending on what their rating (BUY/SELL/HOLD) is; e.g., Detroit is and should be selling, and their most valuable roster piece is Haliburton, but they probably shouldn’t consider Haliburton a top trade asset right now unless they want to be tanking until Lebron’s first grandchild gets drafted by the Lakers.
EDITOR'S NOTE: This is now updated with the West teams!
ATLANTIC
Boston Celtics
Rating: BUY / HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Hassan Whiteside, Anfernee Simons, Jaden McDaniels, TOR 21, LAL 24, Ja Morant (maybe??)
Why: Boston is without their star big man for the duration of the year and the clock is (probably) ticking on Harden’s prime. Sans Whiteside, Boston is firmly in the tier below New York, Indiana, Charlotte and Atlanta and probably the owners of pretty long championship odds. If they think they can luck into the second round of the playoffs, might make sense to hold onto Whiteside until he returns; if not, Boston could use an upgrade, particularly in the rebounding department, and could move the still highly productive Whiteside or some of their young prospects to do so.
Miami Heat
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Okafor, Dame
Why: Miami is -12 in a full on tank, but they’d be worse if they unloaded their two competent starters (although Dame is probably doing a fine job tank commanding with 4 TOs a game).
Brooklyn Nets
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Kemba Walker
Why: Getting rid of AD and Blake was a good start, but a competent point guard will always keep you from bottoming out, and Kemba’s considerably more than competent. There should be plenty of teams out there willing to take on a big expiring in this hard-cap-less environment, as Kemba is still probably a Top 10-ish guy at the 1 and he knows that horses are not, in fact, just really big dogs.
New York Knicks
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: 756 RP and Tre Jones.
Why: On the one hand, the Knicks have the best team in the league. On the other, that is literally ALL they have, though, as Nav has emptied the NY coffers of picks, players and RP in pursuit of this juggernaut. They could probably spend a few shekels on a better fourth big (the aforementioned Emeka seems like a good fit), but it’s hard for me to recommend any changes when this team is +13 halfway through the year and casting a very large, very Cameroonian shadow over my own organization.
Orlando Magic
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: ORL 24, 25, 26
Why: Orlando is a good team, not a great team. They’ve got elite shooting, good stocks and passable rebounding, but the turnovers in the frontcourt are absolutely killing them - they’re second to last among non-tankers in TOPG. They’ve started to solve this problem by shipping out Tristan Thompson for Robin Lopez (savvy move, Merv), but the next guy to go should probably be Zubac. If Sullinger got traded for value on his deal, Orlando should be able to find someone to take the big Croat. Then they can invest all of the team’s ticket revenue in genetic research to clone 3 more John Hensons to fill out the frontcourt.
Philadelphia 76ers
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Deandre Jordan
Why: The guys keeping this team from truly bottoming out are all on hilariously untradeable contracts (for now), so the Sixers can really only get worse by moving DJ, and then look to ditch CP3 and LMA’s expirings in 2021. Unfortunately, despite DJ’s still excellent production, at 32 years old and owed $56M in the next 4 seasons, DMo might have to settle for something less than the king’s ransom he’s hoping for.
Washington Bullets
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Shabazz Muhammed, Ant, Maxey
Why: At the beginning of the season I might have said buy; alas, we are at Day 60 and the addition of Anthony Davis has not moved the needle for Washington as much as Weston may have hoped, mostly because Anthony Davis doesn’t play point guard so the Bullets are starting a true rookie at that position all year. With still relatively few tankers, it probably makes the most sense to finish out this season in the lottery and snag another asset and look to flip the switch next year. There aren’t any vets on the roster that won’t be around for Maxey/Ant’s ascension, so not much to sell either. If I strap on my Captain Hindsight cape, this team would have been a great destination for Kemba as well as AD if winning had been the vision in 2020.
CENTRAL
Atlanta Hawks
Rating: BUY/HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: 1500 RP.
Why: It’s a testament to how incredible the Atlanta starters are that this team is +8 with close to 50 minutes a game coming from leftover FAs Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes and Rakeem Christmas (whose secret stip of course involves the receipt of +20 potential left under the tree on the 25th). A little upgrade in the frontcourt would go a long way to closing the small gap between them and the Hornets/Pacers, though Atlanta doesn’t have a ton of salary to move. Another potential home for Mr. Okafor?
Charlotte Hornets
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: CHA 22, 24 (I think?)
Why: This team is +12 and leading the competitive Central with Draymond Green playing 30 minutes a game – truly astounding. With Boogie at the 5, they need to make sure they’re getting blocks from the other big man spots, and Draymond is positively allergic to rim protection – Charlotte’s only weakness is the 6th worst block rate in the league (they obliterate everyone else in every other category). If Draymond were replaced with a league-average big butt sporting a 2+ stock to TO ratio and not shooting it so much, Charlotte would surpass NYK as the top dog (insect?) in SLN. Scary thought!
Chicago Bulls
Rating: BUY/HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: DET 22, Inflamed Larry Sanders, Dillon Brooks, Klay Thompson
Why: Chicago has suffered some bad luck as of late with the Sanders injury, but Luka’s emergence in 2020 has opened their competitive window. Unfortunately, their lack of boards on the wing is leading to a -3 rebounding differential and torpedoing their chances of competing in a crowded Central. Brooks and Thompson both have value and could be useful to a team that can afford to punt a little on the glass in favor of scoring. Adding the vaunted DET 22 to one of them could make for a pretty compelling package to bring back a guy in the mold of, say, Shabbazz Muhammed or Rudy Gay?
Cleveland Cavaliers
Rating: HOLD, then SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Zack Levine, DLo
Why: Zack Levine and D-Lo are both pretty cool players on their own, but it’s really tough to win with your two backcourt guys coughing it up more than 6 times a game. Though the addition of Winslow (I assume to play the 3) will help offset the possession issue, without Nerlens the frontcourt cupboard is now looking bare, with Maker the only big left that averages less than 1.5 TOs per 36. Cleveland doesn’t have their 21 or 24, but they do have their 22 and 23. I’d say hold pat until the trade deadline to see how the Winslow experiment works, and then trade either Russell or Lavine for a very large package at the deadline and retool around whichever of them is left (for my money, it's probably trade D-Lo, as his value is tied closely to 2-year, incredibly cheap deal). The rest of the roster is young enough that it could make a lot of sense to spend a season sucking in 2021 to grab a nice trade chip in the draft, and then reinvest that and all of the assets from the deadline trade in a new PG and PF/C and flip the switch back in 2022.
Detroit Pistons
Rating: SELL, I guess?
Most valuable trade assets: a great personality.
Why: Detroit’s roster is a barren wasteland outside of the very exciting Haliburton, and their only playable vet, Brandon Jennings, is on a contract worth about 6 Brandon Jennings…s. If they can sell anyone, great. If not, the tank seems to be going swimmingly regardless.
Indiana Pacers
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: Luke Kennard, Tyler Herro, Miles Bridges, CHI 21
Why: Indiana put together an awesome offseason and has a nice young core complemented by proven vets; they’ve made it from the middle to the top tier of the East in a hurry. However, this season may be the end of the window for this exact roster construction, with star PF Al Hefty likely heading to the painted area in the sky at year’s end. To maximize their championship chances in an East full of superteams, they need an upgrade at the wing this season – Bridges’ 28 mpg while doing a whole lot of nothing seem to be the only weak point on an otherwise deep and dangerous roster. Upgrading that spot to either a rebounding, scoring or stock specialist could have Indiana challenging Charlotte for the Central.
Milwaukee Bucks
Rating: HOLD maybe SELL if feeling frisky
Most valuable trade assets: SGA
Why: Like Boston, Milwaukee has had their whole goddam leg bitten off by the injury bug in a season where they had lofty hopes. Fortunately, the team is super young and affordable, so just hanging tight til next season makes plenty of sense. That said, before OPJ and MKG went down, the Bucks were safely in the second tier of East teams without much help from SGA, thanks to the rebirth of Cory Joseph the White after he defeated the Balrog. Pure trade value-wise, SGA remains a top-10 asset in SLN – he could be flipped into a super-duper-star at the deadline and the Bucks could ride the Cojo rocket to the moon next season.
Toronto Raptors:
Rating: HOLD/SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Aaron Gordon
Why: Without their pick in 21, Toronto is no big hurry to move Gordon, who was having a breakout year before going down with a torn hamstring. The rest of the roster is primarily either overpaid vets of moderate production (Valanciunas, Gobert), or promising young fellas who jwoo likely sees as part of the future up North (MPJ, Okoro). With their plans to tear it down for Wemby well-documented, the Raptors are in a bit of an awkward purgatory period. Seems like they’re just looking to have fun for now and will probably sell off some assets toward the end of next year in preparation for the great Tank for the Lank, aka Brick for Vic, aka Play Really Bad for the Tall French Lad.
MIDWEST
Dallas Mavericks
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Jeremy Lamb, THT
Why: Dallas is deeper in the tank than those weird flat bottom fish that just sit still and don't do anything but eat shrimp poop. The good news is that cheaply acquired Trae Young looks a lot better after his supercamp, even if his ratings don't - the bad news is, he's the best PG on the roster so he's keeping them from truly bottoming out by playing competent minutes at the 1...and yet, he's probably not good enough handling the ball to play PG in the long run. Difficult spot, which is why supercamping a PG should be the last step at the end of your tank rather than the first, but I can also understand the buy low opportunity on Young that Hoff pounced on. The Mavs should definitely ship out Jeremy Lamb at their earliest possible convenience (although Hoff may have to attach a little something to him to get off that big salary) and see if that's enough to give him a crack at top 3 lotto odds. On a more positive note, rookies Patrick Williams and Desmond Bane look nice and should develop into quality starters in no time.
Denver Nuggets
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Matisse Thybulle, Lu Dort
Why: After winning the title, the Nuggets hunkered down for a nice long tank, and now their roster displays the many fruits of Kipke’s labor. They’ve got a ton of nice young talent, including Lu Dort, Bag Man, crazy Swiss Army knife Thybulle, and dare I say…Goga Bitadze?? What the fuck is a Goga Bitadze??? But the piece de resistance is of course rookie sensation Lamelo Ball; the hype train made a stop in the Rockies to drop off his two brothers, as well. The biggest mystery in the league today is what’s going to happen with this Ball stip, so even though they don’t have their 21, I’d probably discourage the Nuggets from doing a whole lot before they know what kind of shenanigans Lavar has up his sleeves.
Houston Rockets
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Dejounte Murray, Ryan Anderson
Why: The Rockets have enough talent to avoid their pick getting any worse than maybe 7th, but at -12, they don’t really have enough talent to make it much better than 7 overall either. This team is never going to get a superstar in the draft if they don’t unload some of these middling players like Murray and Ryno, both of whom are competent enough to help a contender. Russ should have no problem commanding the tank when the time comes.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: 28M in expiring contracts and all the MIN picks
Why: The Midwest has never been midder. Memphcouver has taken a few steps backward since a season ago, the Spurs are in a self-described “pre-tank” and everyone else but the Jazz are in freefall. 7.5 games feels like a lot of ground to make up in the division, but Utah has played a home-heavy schedule and probably doesn’t have the depth to sustain an injury at any starter position, so the Wolves could get lucky. Minnesota has a great frontcourt, a stud PG, all of their own picks, lots of big expirings, and some of the worst players in the entire file at all the wing spots. I’m talking garbage so smelly you gotta take it out to the street before the bag is full. They should turn that $28M and picks into at least 2, hopefully 3 playable swingmen – they could easily reclaim THJ from Toronto, Ryno from Houston for free, Jimmy Butler for a couple picks…literally anyone with a pulse would improve the Wolves' differential in a hurry.
San Antonio Spurs
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Jimmy Butler, Shaun Livingston, Mitchell Robinson
Why: It’s never fun to suck when you don’t have your pick, but is it really that big a deal if your traded pick turns into something decent (as long as that thing isn’t Lebron)? There are a lot of buyers in the market right now and no hardcap, so this might be Jordo’s best opportunity to showcase J-Butt’s skills and get a nice package for him (pause). At age 31 with only 2 years left on his deal, he’s not getting any more valuable from here on out. Livingston will keep any team outside the bottom 5 this year, so worst case scenario you convey Josh Giddey to the Nets and let him do his diddling in a state where he’ll actually get in trouble for it. If Garland pops in camps, the spoils of a Butler trade could be reinvested in youth - if he doesn't, full tank mode is also in the cards.
Utah Jazz
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Patty Mills expiring, UTA 26
Why: The defending champs are still a very good team, currently the top differential in the West at +8.9, followed by the Kings at +6 and nobody else better than +4.5 or so. In other words, the West is pretty much the Jazz playing against a bunch of middle school teams. This offseason, I would have said it’s time for Ralph to sell and retool a bit, but it’s kinda difficult to make that argument to him when he’s about to sleepwalk to his 10 billionth consecutive 1 seed this year; even after letting go of Marvin and Al Jeff this offseason, the Jazz are clearly the best team in the conference and don’t need to change anything to be the odds on favorite to get to the Finals again - credit where credit is due! Gun to my head, I'd say there's nothing wrong with adding a bit of depth at wing or PF/C, it's just that Ralph doesn’t have to mortgage more of his future to try to outrun teams that are so far behind him they’ve forgotten what he looks like.
Memphis Grizzlies
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: All the Memphis picks, Mike Conley’s expiring
Why: Unfortunately for our man Josh, the heir apparent at point guard in Memphis has looked a lot more like the air transparent. Kristaps, Capela and Nurkic have actually all gotten better this year, but the team is nowhere near least year’s 50-win pace thanks to the change at the 1 spot from Conley’s rotting corpse (not a great option) to Kris Dunn’s greased up butterfingers (a way worse option). As long as Dunn remains the starter (and apparently an option??), this team’s upside is capped, so their best bet is turning Conley’s expiring into a serviceable point guard on a cheap deal (to offset Dunn’s many dollars) or expiring one that can flout the hardcap. Kemba Walker is the obvious answer in my mind!
PACIFIC
Golden State Warriors
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: Jayson Tatum, Steven Adams contract
Why: The Warriors have the same differential as the team leading the division and are only 2.5 games back of the 2 seed. They’re one more star wing and one Clint decision to start Black over Adams away from securing home court advantage in the playoffs. The former seems more likely than the latter at this point. I feel like we’ve seen more big name SFs develop slowly (Kawhi, PG, etc.) than actually just suck their whole careers, so there should be plenty of buyers for Tatum. I mentioned a Kawhi/Tatum type deal on the pod – somebody suggest a different one in the comments!
LA Clippers
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Collin Sexton, Markelle Fultz
Why: This team is one of the worst I’ve ever seen assembled outside of the point guard spot – and superstar Markelle Fultz is dragging this roster kicking and screaming to a -7 differential and a spot outside the top 5 in the draft. This is unfortunately the only situation where it might make sense to trade a 22 year old future MVP candidate. I liked Matt’s idea of a deal with the Bullets, who are anxious to not suck anymore – a player of Maxey or Ant’s caliber and age is exactly the kind of guy you would want in return for a stud like Fultz.
LA Lakers
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: LAL 26, Gordon Hayward
Why: Well, at least we now know empirically that Kyrie is worth about 5-6 points of team differential himself. I get why GX is frustrated and looking to make a move, but he could pretty effortlessly keep this roster together for when Kyrie returns and have a team easily worthy of homecourt advantage next year. I don’t hate the idea of trading Hayward, who is still incredible and doing his best to make all the GMs who wouldn’t even give up one pick for him feel stupid forever (my hero). He’s worth a lot even as an expiring, and this could be a good opportunity to get a big younger. The Bulls were looking for an above-average-rebounding wing – perhaps there’s a deal to be made there?
Phoenix Suns
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: Rui Hachimura, John Wall’s expiring
Why: The first Blake Griffin sim in Phoenix went…not great, opening the second half of the season 0-3. Probably still some DC stuff to figure out in the desert. They’ve got a bit of an age alignment issue with Rui just not being close to ready yet while everyone else is in their prime. Year 2 Hachimura and his A scouted potential should have a good bit of trade value and can be paired with John Wall’s now completely useless expiring to bring in an Inside or Balanced-focused wing who can score efficiently or get them a positive stock to TO.
Portland Trailblazers
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Salmon Roe, Trez, Monta Ellis, Dinwiddie
Why: Portland is -3, and unfortunately it seems they’re a few pieces away from being a few pieces away. Their best player by far is 35-year-old Ellis, who has begun receiving AARP pamphlets sent to his house and is potentially delivering his last productive season (you can tell he’s old because he still opens all his paper mail). If Portland had a bunch of extra picks lying around, I could see the argument for trying to build a playoff team around Monta, Lauri and Trez – but as things stand, they’d have to mortgage a good portion of the Blazers’ own future to have a shot at the 8 seed, and that probably ain’t worth it for a 1, maybe 2 year window to get bounced in the first round. On the other hand, staying the course with this roster is going to ensure they don’t get a top 5 pick any time soon, so they need to get rid of the competent vets. A lot of these vets could earn draft capital in return, and Quady could hold onto Barrett and Markkanen, strip the rest of the team down for value and tank for a season or two to get a couple more stud youths.
Sacramento Kings
Rating: do Skillz stuff
Most valuable trade assets: Everybody, but probably mostly Hield, Brandon Clarke, UTA 23-25 and CLE 22
Why: Me giving Jesse advice on how to run his team kinda feels like Kipke calling up Max Verstappen to tell him how he can generate more oversteer for mid-corner rotation at Monaco, but here goes. Sacramento is an elite offensive team and are secretly (somehow) the best team at defending the 3PT line, but they’re average at best when it comes to defense overall. Swapping out Winslow for Nerlens helps to bridge the stock gap a bit, but they could use a rare DJJ or Thybulle type getting rotation minutes. Brandon Clark has been suspiciously unmarketed so he’s definitely high potential, and Jesse's got a fat sack of picks he's itching to unload. Perhaps those UTA picks become DJJ or Oden?
Seattle Supersonics
Rating: BUY/HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Ben Simmons, Julius Randle
Why: Build the whole team out of Lou Will! Seattle has exactly 1 two-way guy on their team (Brown) – everyone else is either all offense + bad defense or all defense + terrible offense, which averages out to…average. Seattle manages to generate possessions with pace, steals and rebounds, but they’re not great at putting the ball in the hoop (they shoot .453 from the floor, 18th in the league) and they’re even worse at keeping the other team from putting the ball in the hoop (opponents shoot .464, 22nd in the league). Simmons and Randle are weird-shaped enough to generate some trade interest, it’s just that Nick’s got too many weird-shaped guys starting all at once in Seattle. Flipping Randle or Simmons into a more traditional 3 and D wing and a run-of-the-mill 2:1 stock:TO big butt would do a lot for the Sonics’ FG% differential…that said, I imagine Nick has no interest in being quite so boring.