Explaining the new lottery system
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jwoo
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Explaining the new lottery system
Hey everyone — with the implementation of the new lotto odds coming this season, I’m here with a new explainer so that everyone has clear information on what to expect moving forward. Trying to make this easily digestible, please flag any questions in the comments. Wanted to write a much more detailed article than my previous FAQ just so everyone has time to chew on this until the off-season starts.
HISTORY
The NBA enacted these new “flatter” odds in 2019. This was in direct response to teams like (most notably) the 76ers perpetually tanking to land elite talent but alienating fans and cheapening the product in the process. The two changes were flattening the odds themselves, and also opening up the No. 4 pick for random drawing (previously it was just the top three with odds similar to FBB's in terms of stratification).
While this hasn’t stopped teams from tanking, the idea was to disincentivize bottoming all the way out. It becomes harder to guarantee getting the No. 1 pick if you suck, and the odds also become a bit more favorable for teams in the mid to late lottery. Increased randomness adds luck to the equation and negates some of what can be reliably accomplished when tanking by design.
Here's what's happened since IRL, in brief:
2019: NOP jumped from 7 to 1, MEM jumped from 8 to 2, NYK fell from 1 to 3, LAL jumped from 11 to 4 (this was batshit!)
2020: MIN jumped from 2 to 1, GSW fell from 1 to 2, CHA jumped from 8 to 3, CHI jumped from 7 to 4
2021: DET jumped from 2 to 1, HOU fell from 1 to 2, CLE jumped from 5 to 3, TOR jumped from 7 to 4
2022: ORL jumped from 2 to 1, OKC jumped from 4 to 2, HOU fell from 1 to 3, SAC jumped from 7 to 4
2023: SAS jumped from 3 to 1, CHA jumped from 4 to 2, POR jumped from 5 to 3, HOU fell from 2 to 4
2024: ATL jumped from 10 to 1, WAS stayed at 2, HOU jumped from 9 to 3, SAS jumped from 5 to 4
As you can see, picks jump pretty much every year — way less chalk — the very worst team has actually not yet won a lottery. The Pistons notably got short sticks in 2023 and 2024 — they had the best odds and worst record and still dropped from 1 to 5.
HOW WILL THIS WORK?
The Universal Draft Lottery Simulator: https://zengm.com/universal-draft-lottery-simulator/
Ashes will use this site to conduct the lottery and manually adjust odds as needed based on records, working with an appointed lotto mod.
Here are what the basic odds look like in a vacuum, if there are no ties. (I simply removed the 14th team from the equation and got these on the ZenGM site)
1 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
2 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
3 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
4 - 12.6% chance at No. 1, 48.4% chance top four
5 - 10.6% chance at No. 1, 42.4% chance top four
6 - 9% chance at No. 1, 37.5% chance top four
7 - 7.5% chance at No. 1, 32.1 chance top four
8 - 6% chance at No. 1, 26.5% chance top four
9 - 4.5% chance at No. 1, 20.5% chance top four
10 - 3% chance at No. 1, 13.9% chance top four
11 - 2% chance at No. 1, 9.5% chance top four
12 - 1.5% chance at No. 1, 7.2% chance top four
13 - 1% chance at No. 1, 4.8% chance top four
The top three teams are determined by order of record, but all have the same odds. Keep in mind that this order is still significant, in that it determines how far a team’s pick can drop, so there’s still a slight advantage to having a worse record. (Basically, just remember that no team can drop more than four slots off of this base pre-lotto order).
For example, the team with the worst record, in a worse case scenario can pick no lower than fifth. Second-worst no lower than sixth. And say those teams both fell out of the top four (sucks for them!), then the team with the worst record would pick fifth and the next-worst, sixth.
WHAT WOULD THE LOTTO LOOK LIKE IF WE RAN IT TODAY?
Some key things to notice:
-The very worst team in the league (Miami) has a slightly better than 50% chance of picking top-four. However, their most likely individual pick outcome is fifth!
-LAC and HOU are currently tied in the standings, so they are given the same number of lotto combinations. LAC won my sample tiebreak, so they gain the advantage of being able to pick no lower than 8th, versus seventh. However, LAC and HOU still have the exact same odds at picks 1, 2, 3 and 4.
-TOR holds the sixth-most combinations, but doesn't actually have a high chance of picking sixth — it is more likely it would simply drop to seventh or eighth, if its pick does not jump.
-the lottery picks currently owned by WAS (from PHI) and CHI (from DET) have pretty solid value and have a tangible, if unlikely, chance to jump into the top four. Mid-lottery picks now have much more upside than in the past, where they could only jump into the top three and had slim chances of doing so.
-Per Ashes, these were the old FBB lottery odds for winning the No. 1 pick. Very easy to see how much more balanced the new odds are, tilting away from the advantage generally enjoyed by the worst and second-worst teams, and distributing those other combinations toward the middle of the lotto in particular.
1 - 25%
2 - 20%
3 - 15%
4 - 12%
5 - 9%
6 - 7%
7 - 5%
8 - 3%
9 - 2%
10 - 1%
11 - .7%
12 - .6%
13 - .5%
How fucking insane was it that the Sixers won the LeBron lottery with a 0.5% chance? Frozen envelope shit lol.
TIEBREAKERS
Ashes will break all ties within the lottery manually via coin flip. (This is how it’s actually done in the NBA, hilariously).
If there are ties outside the top 3, those odds are balanced accordingly - for example, if 4th and 5th are tied, those No. 1 odds would go from 12.6% and 10.6% to 11.6% each. Basically, each team receives the average of their tied odds. And if there is not an exact even tie number, then there is a coin flip for which team selects first and gets the extra percentage point.
While tied lotto teams have the same odds of moving up in the draft, remember that tiebreakers are significant, because they still determine who has the better pick if no pick jumps.
NON LOTTO PICKS
These are still determined by reverse order of record. Ashes can decide if he wants to break non-lotto ties manually as well, or just let FBB do it to save time.
SECOND ROUND PICKS
The second round is always determined by reverse order of record. For example, the worst team in the league will have the 30th pick (R2 RP1) even if their first round pick drops in the lottery.
In the second round, ties are always just broken in the opposite direction of how they were broken in the first round. Whichever of the two (or however many) tied teams had the better pick in the first round will have the worse in the second round.
IT'S DAY 60 - WHAT DOES THE DRAFT ORDER LOOK LIKE?
Finally, I'll put these general concepts into practice by making the Day 60 draft order going off of win percentages, just so everyone can see an example. I did not use a sample lottery for this, for the sake of simplicity.
1. Miami
2. Dallas
3. New Jersey
4. LA Clippers (tie)
5. Houston (tie) *there would be a lotto tiebreak for LAC/HOU picks*
6. Toronto
7. Washington (via PHI)
8. Chicago (via DET)
9. Denver
10. Dallas (via CLE)
11. San Antonio
12. Toronto (via MIN)
13. Milwaukee
14. Houston (via SAC)
15. Houston (via SEA)
16. Portland
17. Toronto (via GSW) *this pick is top four protected*
18. Washington
19. LA Clippers (via IND)
20. Denver (via UTA)
21. Vancouver
22. New Jersey (via LAL)
23. Denver (via NYK)
24. New Jersey (via PHX)
25. Miami (via BOS) (tie)
26. Miami (via CHI) (tie) *there would be a tiebreak for BOS/CHI picks*
27. Charlotte
28. New Jersey (via ORL)
29. LA Clippers (via ATL)
SECOND ROUND (to illustrate reverse ties)
30. Miami
31. Toronto (via DAL)
32. New Jersey
33. Houston (tie) *because LAC picks ahead of HOU in 1R, HOU pick goes ahead in 2R unless LAC jumps them in lotto*
34. Toronto (via LAC)
35. Toronto
36. Philadelphia
37. Detroit
38. Denver
39. Phoenix (via CLE)
40. Toronto (via SAS)
41. Minnesota
42. Portland (via MIL)
43. Golden State (via SAC)
44. LA Clippers (via SEA)
45. Portland
46. Golden State
47. Washington
48. Washington (via IND)
49. Utah
50. Washington (via VAN)
51. LA Lakers
52. New York
53. Toronto (via PHX)
54. San Antonio (via CHI) *because BOS picking ahead in first round, CHI pick comes first in second*
55. Boston
56. Charlotte (insert the next second round hall of famer here)
57. New Jersey (via ORL)
58. Atlanta (hawk tuah spit on my stick)
@ashes FYI based on owed picks, this Bulls 2RP pick has been traded to the Lakers (who are sending the worse of CHI/LAL seconds to the Spurs)
WHAT NOW?
Ashes will need to appoint a lotto mod, and then work with that person to decide when the lottery will be run and how it will be communicated to the league. That person will also need to keep track of where picks are being manually traded after the lottery is run online. (We are no longer bound here by the exact timing of FBB, so the lotto could be run during the playoffs like in real life, allowing more time for non-playoff teams to send scouts and do draft prep). The draft itself will still be after the playoffs as usual.
Drop any questions in the comments, hope this helps everyone understand what to expect moving forward!
HISTORY
The NBA enacted these new “flatter” odds in 2019. This was in direct response to teams like (most notably) the 76ers perpetually tanking to land elite talent but alienating fans and cheapening the product in the process. The two changes were flattening the odds themselves, and also opening up the No. 4 pick for random drawing (previously it was just the top three with odds similar to FBB's in terms of stratification).
While this hasn’t stopped teams from tanking, the idea was to disincentivize bottoming all the way out. It becomes harder to guarantee getting the No. 1 pick if you suck, and the odds also become a bit more favorable for teams in the mid to late lottery. Increased randomness adds luck to the equation and negates some of what can be reliably accomplished when tanking by design.
Here's what's happened since IRL, in brief:
2019: NOP jumped from 7 to 1, MEM jumped from 8 to 2, NYK fell from 1 to 3, LAL jumped from 11 to 4 (this was batshit!)
2020: MIN jumped from 2 to 1, GSW fell from 1 to 2, CHA jumped from 8 to 3, CHI jumped from 7 to 4
2021: DET jumped from 2 to 1, HOU fell from 1 to 2, CLE jumped from 5 to 3, TOR jumped from 7 to 4
2022: ORL jumped from 2 to 1, OKC jumped from 4 to 2, HOU fell from 1 to 3, SAC jumped from 7 to 4
2023: SAS jumped from 3 to 1, CHA jumped from 4 to 2, POR jumped from 5 to 3, HOU fell from 2 to 4
2024: ATL jumped from 10 to 1, WAS stayed at 2, HOU jumped from 9 to 3, SAS jumped from 5 to 4
As you can see, picks jump pretty much every year — way less chalk — the very worst team has actually not yet won a lottery. The Pistons notably got short sticks in 2023 and 2024 — they had the best odds and worst record and still dropped from 1 to 5.
HOW WILL THIS WORK?
The Universal Draft Lottery Simulator: https://zengm.com/universal-draft-lottery-simulator/
Ashes will use this site to conduct the lottery and manually adjust odds as needed based on records, working with an appointed lotto mod.
Here are what the basic odds look like in a vacuum, if there are no ties. (I simply removed the 14th team from the equation and got these on the ZenGM site)
1 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
2 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
3 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
4 - 12.6% chance at No. 1, 48.4% chance top four
5 - 10.6% chance at No. 1, 42.4% chance top four
6 - 9% chance at No. 1, 37.5% chance top four
7 - 7.5% chance at No. 1, 32.1 chance top four
8 - 6% chance at No. 1, 26.5% chance top four
9 - 4.5% chance at No. 1, 20.5% chance top four
10 - 3% chance at No. 1, 13.9% chance top four
11 - 2% chance at No. 1, 9.5% chance top four
12 - 1.5% chance at No. 1, 7.2% chance top four
13 - 1% chance at No. 1, 4.8% chance top four
The top three teams are determined by order of record, but all have the same odds. Keep in mind that this order is still significant, in that it determines how far a team’s pick can drop, so there’s still a slight advantage to having a worse record. (Basically, just remember that no team can drop more than four slots off of this base pre-lotto order).
For example, the team with the worst record, in a worse case scenario can pick no lower than fifth. Second-worst no lower than sixth. And say those teams both fell out of the top four (sucks for them!), then the team with the worst record would pick fifth and the next-worst, sixth.
WHAT WOULD THE LOTTO LOOK LIKE IF WE RAN IT TODAY?
Some key things to notice:
-The very worst team in the league (Miami) has a slightly better than 50% chance of picking top-four. However, their most likely individual pick outcome is fifth!
-LAC and HOU are currently tied in the standings, so they are given the same number of lotto combinations. LAC won my sample tiebreak, so they gain the advantage of being able to pick no lower than 8th, versus seventh. However, LAC and HOU still have the exact same odds at picks 1, 2, 3 and 4.
-TOR holds the sixth-most combinations, but doesn't actually have a high chance of picking sixth — it is more likely it would simply drop to seventh or eighth, if its pick does not jump.
-the lottery picks currently owned by WAS (from PHI) and CHI (from DET) have pretty solid value and have a tangible, if unlikely, chance to jump into the top four. Mid-lottery picks now have much more upside than in the past, where they could only jump into the top three and had slim chances of doing so.
-Per Ashes, these were the old FBB lottery odds for winning the No. 1 pick. Very easy to see how much more balanced the new odds are, tilting away from the advantage generally enjoyed by the worst and second-worst teams, and distributing those other combinations toward the middle of the lotto in particular.
1 - 25%
2 - 20%
3 - 15%
4 - 12%
5 - 9%
6 - 7%
7 - 5%
8 - 3%
9 - 2%
10 - 1%
11 - .7%
12 - .6%
13 - .5%
How fucking insane was it that the Sixers won the LeBron lottery with a 0.5% chance? Frozen envelope shit lol.
TIEBREAKERS
Ashes will break all ties within the lottery manually via coin flip. (This is how it’s actually done in the NBA, hilariously).
If there are ties outside the top 3, those odds are balanced accordingly - for example, if 4th and 5th are tied, those No. 1 odds would go from 12.6% and 10.6% to 11.6% each. Basically, each team receives the average of their tied odds. And if there is not an exact even tie number, then there is a coin flip for which team selects first and gets the extra percentage point.
While tied lotto teams have the same odds of moving up in the draft, remember that tiebreakers are significant, because they still determine who has the better pick if no pick jumps.
NON LOTTO PICKS
These are still determined by reverse order of record. Ashes can decide if he wants to break non-lotto ties manually as well, or just let FBB do it to save time.
SECOND ROUND PICKS
The second round is always determined by reverse order of record. For example, the worst team in the league will have the 30th pick (R2 RP1) even if their first round pick drops in the lottery.
In the second round, ties are always just broken in the opposite direction of how they were broken in the first round. Whichever of the two (or however many) tied teams had the better pick in the first round will have the worse in the second round.
IT'S DAY 60 - WHAT DOES THE DRAFT ORDER LOOK LIKE?
Finally, I'll put these general concepts into practice by making the Day 60 draft order going off of win percentages, just so everyone can see an example. I did not use a sample lottery for this, for the sake of simplicity.
1. Miami
2. Dallas
3. New Jersey
4. LA Clippers (tie)
5. Houston (tie) *there would be a lotto tiebreak for LAC/HOU picks*
6. Toronto
7. Washington (via PHI)
8. Chicago (via DET)
9. Denver
10. Dallas (via CLE)
11. San Antonio
12. Toronto (via MIN)
13. Milwaukee
14. Houston (via SAC)
15. Houston (via SEA)
16. Portland
17. Toronto (via GSW) *this pick is top four protected*
18. Washington
19. LA Clippers (via IND)
20. Denver (via UTA)
21. Vancouver
22. New Jersey (via LAL)
23. Denver (via NYK)
24. New Jersey (via PHX)
25. Miami (via BOS) (tie)
26. Miami (via CHI) (tie) *there would be a tiebreak for BOS/CHI picks*
27. Charlotte
28. New Jersey (via ORL)
29. LA Clippers (via ATL)
SECOND ROUND (to illustrate reverse ties)
30. Miami
31. Toronto (via DAL)
32. New Jersey
33. Houston (tie) *because LAC picks ahead of HOU in 1R, HOU pick goes ahead in 2R unless LAC jumps them in lotto*
34. Toronto (via LAC)
35. Toronto
36. Philadelphia
37. Detroit
38. Denver
39. Phoenix (via CLE)
40. Toronto (via SAS)
41. Minnesota
42. Portland (via MIL)
43. Golden State (via SAC)
44. LA Clippers (via SEA)
45. Portland
46. Golden State
47. Washington
48. Washington (via IND)
49. Utah
50. Washington (via VAN)
51. LA Lakers
52. New York
53. Toronto (via PHX)
54. San Antonio (via CHI) *because BOS picking ahead in first round, CHI pick comes first in second*
55. Boston
56. Charlotte (insert the next second round hall of famer here)
57. New Jersey (via ORL)
58. Atlanta (hawk tuah spit on my stick)
@ashes FYI based on owed picks, this Bulls 2RP pick has been traded to the Lakers (who are sending the worse of CHI/LAL seconds to the Spurs)
WHAT NOW?
Ashes will need to appoint a lotto mod, and then work with that person to decide when the lottery will be run and how it will be communicated to the league. That person will also need to keep track of where picks are being manually traded after the lottery is run online. (We are no longer bound here by the exact timing of FBB, so the lotto could be run during the playoffs like in real life, allowing more time for non-playoff teams to send scouts and do draft prep). The draft itself will still be after the playoffs as usual.
Drop any questions in the comments, hope this helps everyone understand what to expect moving forward!
Last edited by jwoo on January 16th, 2025, 3:56 pm, edited 3 times in total.
free healthcare has never been more important
You only wrote this to mention you have 5 SRPs this coming draft
Kyrie Irving / RFK Jr. Collab Night -- CANCELLED
LaMelo Ball Go Karting Night
LiAngelo Ball Concert Night
LaVar Ball Amputee Night
Fuck Trae Young Night
Evan Mobility Night
Chet’s Durag Night
LaMelo Ball Go Karting Night
LiAngelo Ball Concert Night
LaVar Ball Amputee Night
Fuck Trae Young Night
Evan Mobility Night
Chet’s Durag Night
This will create a lot of different scenarios, adding even more excitement
Kyrie Irving / RFK Jr. Collab Night -- CANCELLED
LaMelo Ball Go Karting Night
LiAngelo Ball Concert Night
LaVar Ball Amputee Night
Fuck Trae Young Night
Evan Mobility Night
Chet’s Durag Night
LaMelo Ball Go Karting Night
LiAngelo Ball Concert Night
LaVar Ball Amputee Night
Fuck Trae Young Night
Evan Mobility Night
Chet’s Durag Night
the sixers winning the most important lottery in league history after getting ragged for trading for the pick that fell to #13 is a top candidate the first SLN 30 for 30
Celtics ah the balls
“What if I told you 7+6 actually equaled 1”Joe wrote: January 16th, 2025, 7:24 am the sixers winning the most important lottery in league history after getting ragged for trading for the pick that fell to #13 is a top candidate the first SLN 30 for 30
Promos:
Just the Tip-Off Opening Night- 10/31
Raw Dog with Gradey - Half Off Hot Dogs - 11/7
Go Balls Deep - Mini Basektball Giveaway- 12/24
No Pull Out Night - Gradey Plays 48 Minutes - 1/19
Wet Dick Night - Free Pepsi when Gradey Hits 5 Threes- 2/14
Just the Tip-Off Opening Night- 10/31
Raw Dog with Gradey - Half Off Hot Dogs - 11/7
Go Balls Deep - Mini Basektball Giveaway- 12/24
No Pull Out Night - Gradey Plays 48 Minutes - 1/19
Wet Dick Night - Free Pepsi when Gradey Hits 5 Threes- 2/14
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