Sim League Nirvana

Consider this a spiritual cousin article to my other more informative primer for this year's lottery.

As I was writing that one I thought it would be fun to run the lotto a bunch of times and just collect some data to give people some type of false hope idea about how things could go with the new lottery odds. Consider this a very unscientific experiment.

Here are the current projected lottery odds entering the Day 71-80 sim.


I wanted to get a somewhat decent sample here but also not go overboard with data bombardment nor waste a ton of time. I figured part of the fun is actually seeing each possible outcome. So: I ran the lotto 10 times and will share all 10 scenarios below in the order they popped up.


LOTTERY 1: HOUSTON WE HAVE A PAOLO

1. HOU (+3 slots)
2. LAC (+3)
3. DAL
4. NJ (-2)
5. MIA (-4)
6. TOR
7. CHI (via DET)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

This is a somewhat chalky scenario that sees the Rockets jump up from 4 to 1, the Clippers jump from 5 to 2, Dallas stay at 3, the Nets fall to 4, and the Heat get a worst-case outcome in slipping to fifth. Everything else was the same. This one kinda goes to show how much more random it is when you draw for a fourth draft slot, and feels somewhat realistic.


LOTTERY 2: I JUST CAME IN MY PANTS

1. TOR (via MIN) (+9)
2. MIA (-1)
3. TOR (+3)
4. LAC (+1)
5. NJ (-3)
6. DAL (-3)
7. HOU (-3)
8. CHI (via DET)
9. WAS (via PHI)
10. DEN
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

Lol I swear to god this actually happened on my second lotto run — my 10th pick via Minnesota jumped to the top spot, and my other pick jumped from sixth to third. I kinda wish this hadn't come up because the odds of it happening again seem insanely slim. Not sure I will be able to sleep tonight tbh. My heart races every time I click "sim lottery" because of shit like this. If this actually happened I'd probably never have anything nice happen to me ever again.

Anyway, this scenario also saw the Heat fall to 2, Clippers go up to 4, and the Nets, Mavs and Rockets all fall three slots (sorry guys).


LOTTERY 3: MARKELLE GETS A FRIEND

1. LAC (+4)
2. NJ
3. DAL
4. MIA (-3)
5. HOU (-1)
6. TOR
7. CHI (via DET)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

This is a pretty huge lottery coming up for the Clippers because they don't have their 2023 pick (Miami has it from the Carmelo trade). LA may have more at stake than anyone else, because the pressure will be on to take their cap space and whoever they draft and start to win games around Fultz with the training wheels off (at least for a season). Other than that, this is a fairly realistic lottery, again note that the Heat fall from 1 to 4, and that there's a high likelihood at least one or two teams leave the lottery pissed off.


LOTTERY 4: NICE JOB HOFF

1. DAL (+2)
2. LAC (+3)
3. NJ (-1)
4. TOR (+2)
5. MIA (-4)
6. HOU (-2)
7. CHI (via DET)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

Four lotteries and four different winners! What are the odds? (You could totally actually calculate this but I suck at math). In this scenario, the Heat and Rockets see their picks drop again, the Clippers jump to 2, and the Raptors pick jumps from 6 to 4 (I felt it move a little just typing that). Dallas is another interesting lottery team — would the presence of Evan Mobley make it harder to select a guy like Paolo or Chet who may also be a subpar rebounder up front? Can't wait to see draft profiles.


LOTTERY 5: WHAT ARE YOU DOING IN MY SWAMP

1. NJ (+1)
2. TOR (+4)
3. HOU (+1)
4. LAC (+1)
5. MIA (-4)
6. DAL (-3)
7. CHI (via DET)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

Wow, another new winner on the fifth try — Steven revitalizes retail spaces in Newark by winning the lottery. My pick jumped to No. 2. I might have to do this every night this week just for the rush. Houston and the Clippers jumped one spot each, and the Heat (again!) and the Mavs saw their picks fall. Scoops is probably going to read this article and go full angry Joe over these new odds and take us back to 1998.


LOTTERY 6: SORT OF CHALKY

1. HOU (+3)
2. DAL (+1)
3. LAC (+2)
4. MIA (-3)
5. NJ (-3)
6. TOR
7. CHI (via DET)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

This is a boring lotto. Rockets become our first repeat winner. The Heat fall again somehow. The Nets also fall down three spots.


LOTTERY 7: SCOOP THERE IT IS

1. MIA
2. HOU (+2)
3. NJ (-1)
4. TOR (+2)
5. DAL (-2)
6. LAC (-1)
7. CHI (via DET)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

I was hoping Miami would win at least one of these purely for optics purposes. Would be a big coup after the Heat kinda got screwed by the old lottery odds the past couple years, too. My pick jumped up to 4 again. I'm worried I'm going to run out of luck by the time we get to the real lottery.


LOTTERY 8: KARMA FOR MATT

1. NJ (+1)
2. CHI (via DET) (+5)
3. HOU
4. TOR (+2)
5. MIA (-4)
6. DAL (-3)
7. LAC (-2)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

In what can only be viewed as an opposite karmic reaction to Matt's 2003 Bulls pick delivering LeBron to the Sixers, his pick via Detroit makes the leap here to No. 2, which would be pretty sick. A Luka-Chet pairing would be both pasty and tasty. My pick jumped again, I wish it would stop now, it's making me so nervous.


LOTTERY 9: STEVEN WINS A THIRD TIME SMH

1. NJ (+1)
2. TOR (+4)
3. LAC (+2)
4. CHI (via DET) (+3)
5. MIA (-4)
6. DAL (-3)
7. HOU (-2)
8. WAS (via PHI)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

We jumped again, I swear to god I'm not just making these lottery results up. Steven becomes a three-time Fake Lotto Champion, go to the nearest gas station in Secaucus to claim your prize. Matt's pick also jumps again.


LOTTERY 10: HANESSIAN FAMILY REUNION

1. MIA
2. CHI (via DET) (+5)
3. HOU
4. WAS (via PHI) (+4)
5. NJ (-3)
6. DAL (-3)
7. LAC (-2)
8. TOR (-2)
9. DEN
10. TOR (via MIN)
11. HOU (via SEA)
12. MIL
13. DAL (via CLE)

In this one BOTH Matt and Wes see their spoils of war (aka picks they justifiably wouldn't send back to people in their own trees) jump into the top four. Scoops wins the fake lottery again and we avoid a fake lawsuit.


Big takeaways

This thing is super random. Someone's pick jumped pretty much every time. We only got one instance of a pick lower than 8th jumping. It's far from a given that being shitty will get you the top pick. The Nets won three times, the Heat and Rockets won twice, the Mavs and Clippers each once, and the Timberwolves pick jumping from 10 proved to be the weirdest outcome.

I do think that this should be a materially positive thing for the league. If nothing else, it makes rebuilding and pivoting in and out of tanks a lot more interesting. It's less of a guarantee you wind up with elite talent and I think helps incentivize people to be resourceful in terms of using cap space and accumulating assets to upgrade your roster over time, as opposed to simply pulling a Sam Hinkie and praying for four or five seasons. Most importantly, it is theoretically easier for people to collect talent and still have a decent chance at positive luck — you don't have to totally gut your roster or trade every player of value to have real odds, and I suppose the hope would be that the baseline level of shittiness amongst tanking teams rises as time goes on.

As Matt pointed out somewhere, there is the possibility of this system perpetuating longer tanks (which is what Ashes doesn't want) and making it harder to flip the switch if you get subpar lottery luck, but there's more than one way to skin a cat. I also think once we get into the fake players era, where drafts will be a lot more interesting and less reliant on players' IRL careers, this lottery wrinkle will make things even more fun, since Ashes will have full leeway to shape draft classes and they might be a little less obvious at the very top.

Anyway, this is the type of thing you can waste a ton of time on (and no comment as to whether I did) but once again, here's the link to the lottery simulator for people to mess around with.

https://zengm.com/universal-draft-lottery-simulator/

Lottery 8 and 10 gtfo

My thoughts on the new draft lotto every time I see the odds:
1. It definitely dissuades crazy tanking… harder to get a top 3 pick from within the top 3 pre-lotto and easier to jump from later in the lotto
2. Because of less a chance to receive a top pick by bottoming out, it can prolong tanking
3. It can also make the jump out of tanking quicker, with more variability and higher odds in jumping
4. I wonder how this affects the trade market… will GMs be less inclined to trade their future picks because late lotto picks have higher odds to jump? Will picks become more valuable because of this?

Overall, I’m excited for the new lotto odds, should add a new element to SLN, and Amelia breaking ties makes it 100x better

Hoff wrote: January 18th, 2025, 9:29 am My thoughts on the new draft lotto every time I see the odds:
1. It definitely dissuades crazy tanking… harder to get a top 3 pick from within the top 3 pre-lotto and easier to jump from later in the lotto
2. Because of less a chance to receive a top pick by bottoming out, it can prolong tanking
3. It can also make the jump out of tanking quicker, with more variability and higher odds in jumping
4. I wonder how this affects the trade market… will GMs be less inclined to trade their future picks because late lotto picks have higher odds to jump? Will picks become more valuable because of this?

Overall, I’m excited for the new lotto odds, should add a new element to SLN, and Amelia breaking ties makes it 100x better

We are also about to have zero frame of reference for any of these draft picks once Ashes starts churning out players like Storm Munroe SG with B+ shooting like a glass cannon or Lucas Snow a PG with crazy high passing to get lots of assists. So having the #2 pick might not be the ticket out of a tank it used to be anyway. If anything, this upcoming tank rule should loosen the purse strings on firsts and create more trading

Merv wrote: January 18th, 2025, 11:15 am

Hoff wrote: January 18th, 2025, 9:29 am My thoughts on the new draft lotto every time I see the odds:
1. It definitely dissuades crazy tanking… harder to get a top 3 pick from within the top 3 pre-lotto and easier to jump from later in the lotto
2. Because of less a chance to receive a top pick by bottoming out, it can prolong tanking
3. It can also make the jump out of tanking quicker, with more variability and higher odds in jumping
4. I wonder how this affects the trade market… will GMs be less inclined to trade their future picks because late lotto picks have higher odds to jump? Will picks become more valuable because of this?

Overall, I’m excited for the new lotto odds, should add a new element to SLN, and Amelia breaking ties makes it 100x better

We are also about to have zero frame of reference for any of these draft picks once Ashes starts churning out players like Storm Munroe SG with B+ shooting like a glass cannon or Lucas Snow a PG with crazy high passing to get lots of assists. So having the #2 pick might not be the ticket out of a tank it used to be anyway. If anything, this upcoming tank rule should loosen the purse strings on firsts and create more trading

Pure chaos?

Grade: 250RP

Joe wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:35 pmGrade: 250RP

I feel like this should be worth more, I spent a decent amount of time putting it together and the goal was to be informative for the league

Obviously not a shot at Manty but if his article that just listed the schedules of a bunch of teams is 600+ RP, not sure how this is only 250

jwoo wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:40 pm

Joe wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:35 pmGrade: 250RP

I feel like this should be worth more, I spent a decent amount of time putting it together and the goal was to be informative for the league

Obviously not a shot at Manty but if his article that just listed the schedules of a bunch of teams is 600+ RP, not sure how this is only 250

Manty got the first article + first article original bonus (the boni are huge! you got them on your "explaining the lottery" article) - shoot me a text, happy to discuss

Joe wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:44 pm

jwoo wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:40 pm

Joe wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:35 pmGrade: 250RP

I feel like this should be worth more, I spent a decent amount of time putting it together and the goal was to be informative for the league

Obviously not a shot at Manty but if his article that just listed the schedules of a bunch of teams is 600+ RP, not sure how this is only 250

Manty got the first article + first article original bonus (the boni are huge! you got them on your "explaining the lottery" article) - shoot me a text, happy to discuss

I'm not that upset but nothing needs to be said that we can't discuss publicly, I think this is worth more RP

jwoo wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:46 pm

Joe wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:44 pm

jwoo wrote: February 3rd, 2025, 2:40 pm

I feel like this should be worth more, I spent a decent amount of time putting it together and the goal was to be informative for the league

Obviously not a shot at Manty but if his article that just listed the schedules of a bunch of teams is 600+ RP, not sure how this is only 250

Manty got the first article + first article original bonus (the boni are huge! you got them on your "explaining the lottery" article) - shoot me a text, happy to discuss

I'm not that upset but nothing needs to be said that we can't discuss publicly, I think this is worth more RP

Our grading parameters and regrade/appeal process have always been the same and can be found here https://www.simleaguenirvana.com/viewto ... 946#p28946: you can reach out to the graders (typically that's via text but more than happy to do it on the boards if you want? Everyone else has done this via text) and express anything specific about your article that you think was missed in grading (how long it took to put something together, unseen analytic effort on the back end, creating visuals, etc.) and we will always be happy to review the article again.

We can't guarantee we will grade it higher in the following pass (technically we could grade it lower), but I think anyone who has asked for a regrade in the past and provided specifics to us would say we have been pretty receptive!