2030 TC Analysis (Now w/ NDL!)
2030 TC Analysis (Now w/ NDL!)
Back again for this year’s TC analysis.
Reminder again of how I calculate stat totals. When I refer to “TCΔ”, I count a letter grade move as 1. I do not include changes in Potential in these calcs. When I show “Stat Totals” for players, I calculate those as a sum of all letter grades, excluding potential, based on the following scale.
TC Impacts by player position, age, etc:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
In aggregate, across 355 total players that participated in TC, 124 gained for +190 TCΔ, 121 declined for -170 TCΔ, and the remaining 110 held flat. So in total, the league saw +20 TCΔ, which is a bigger net gain than the last few years. Excluding handles, we still saw gains for +8 aggregate, albeit with more players declining than gaining.
With LeBron and KD retired, Anthony Davis and Otto Porter are now the oldest two players. Otto went -1 Inside and AD went -2 (Inside and Defense).
TC Comparison Across Years:
As mentioned above, it was a higher net positive year on total stats, going +20 relative to -7 and -10 the last two years. Interestingly though, it was another +8 excluding Handles, which has been the case for three years in a row now.
Detailed Distribution by Age Range
As usual, younger players were the major net gainers. The fun things to call out are the outliers…
Late gainers: 2 players aged 31 went +2 ex handles - Ja Morant and Xavier Tillman. Congrats to the SoNicks and Grizz on hitting the lotto with those late career boosts.
Early decliners: Hudson Greer, Caleb Wilson, Tarik Watson, Quintin Sugarman and Jase Richardson are all 25 or younger and went down -2 ex Handles (or -3 for Richardson). Sadly for their teams, these guys may not be future stars…
TC Impact by teams, divisions, conferences:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
The East just keeps getting better. Despite already being the more talented conference, the East made up the bulk of net gains across the league.
The standout teams, excluding handles, are as follows:
5 Biggest Gainers: Orlando +11, Minnesota: +10, Indiana +8, Charlotte +7, Knicks +5
5 Biggest Decliners: Bucks -6, Spurs -6, Clippers -5, Nuggets / Rockets / Warriors / Suns all -4
TC Impact by Rookie:
In a bit of a deviation from past TC Analyses, I’ve laid out rookie gains against their Draft File grades, so this also incorporates impacts of any Reward Camps, position changes, etc.
This year’s class went off. In total, Rookies went +56 ex Handles, with all but Orion Simms (sorry Mavs) holding flat or gaining. Lots of talent this year that will be a lot of fun to watch going forward.
NDL TC Impact:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
In a much requested addition to this annual analysis, I’ve gone through NDL teams to track the same aggregate TC impacts.
Interestingly, the NDL went -64 ex Handles, across 282 players. Because so many of these players are just auto generated, there’s probably not a ton to learn from this.
That said, there were 7 teams that had gains: Motor City Cruise +8 (hell ya), Santa Cruz Warriors +4, Stockton Kings +3 (repeat champs incoming?), Grand Rapids Gold +2, Capital City Go-Go +2, Cleveland Charge +1, and Memphis Hustle +1.
I’d like to figure out a way to isolate out the delegated players vs auto generated to be able to see more interesting trends here but need to go through and manually tag the relevant players so that will have to be a future endeavor…
That’s it for this year’s TC Analysis. Hope everyone enjoys and good luck this season.
Reminder again of how I calculate stat totals. When I refer to “TCΔ”, I count a letter grade move as 1. I do not include changes in Potential in these calcs. When I show “Stat Totals” for players, I calculate those as a sum of all letter grades, excluding potential, based on the following scale.
TC Impacts by player position, age, etc:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
In aggregate, across 355 total players that participated in TC, 124 gained for +190 TCΔ, 121 declined for -170 TCΔ, and the remaining 110 held flat. So in total, the league saw +20 TCΔ, which is a bigger net gain than the last few years. Excluding handles, we still saw gains for +8 aggregate, albeit with more players declining than gaining.
With LeBron and KD retired, Anthony Davis and Otto Porter are now the oldest two players. Otto went -1 Inside and AD went -2 (Inside and Defense).
TC Comparison Across Years:
As mentioned above, it was a higher net positive year on total stats, going +20 relative to -7 and -10 the last two years. Interestingly though, it was another +8 excluding Handles, which has been the case for three years in a row now.
Detailed Distribution by Age Range
As usual, younger players were the major net gainers. The fun things to call out are the outliers…
Late gainers: 2 players aged 31 went +2 ex handles - Ja Morant and Xavier Tillman. Congrats to the SoNicks and Grizz on hitting the lotto with those late career boosts.
Early decliners: Hudson Greer, Caleb Wilson, Tarik Watson, Quintin Sugarman and Jase Richardson are all 25 or younger and went down -2 ex Handles (or -3 for Richardson). Sadly for their teams, these guys may not be future stars…
TC Impact by teams, divisions, conferences:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
The East just keeps getting better. Despite already being the more talented conference, the East made up the bulk of net gains across the league.
The standout teams, excluding handles, are as follows:
5 Biggest Gainers: Orlando +11, Minnesota: +10, Indiana +8, Charlotte +7, Knicks +5
5 Biggest Decliners: Bucks -6, Spurs -6, Clippers -5, Nuggets / Rockets / Warriors / Suns all -4
TC Impact by Rookie:
In a bit of a deviation from past TC Analyses, I’ve laid out rookie gains against their Draft File grades, so this also incorporates impacts of any Reward Camps, position changes, etc.
This year’s class went off. In total, Rookies went +56 ex Handles, with all but Orion Simms (sorry Mavs) holding flat or gaining. Lots of talent this year that will be a lot of fun to watch going forward.
NDL TC Impact:
With Handles:
Excluding Handles:
In a much requested addition to this annual analysis, I’ve gone through NDL teams to track the same aggregate TC impacts.
Interestingly, the NDL went -64 ex Handles, across 282 players. Because so many of these players are just auto generated, there’s probably not a ton to learn from this.
That said, there were 7 teams that had gains: Motor City Cruise +8 (hell ya), Santa Cruz Warriors +4, Stockton Kings +3 (repeat champs incoming?), Grand Rapids Gold +2, Capital City Go-Go +2, Cleveland Charge +1, and Memphis Hustle +1.
I’d like to figure out a way to isolate out the delegated players vs auto generated to be able to see more interesting trends here but need to go through and manually tag the relevant players so that will have to be a future endeavor…
That’s it for this year’s TC Analysis. Hope everyone enjoys and good luck this season.
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mantypas/CavsCzar
- The Champ
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- Joined: December 20th, 2023, 12:06 pm
2030 TC Analysis (Now w/ NDL!)
Sheesh this must take so much time, good stuff! I thought our TC was mid but now realizing it was fully cheeks
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