[vote requested] Rule Change Proposal: Modernizing the Lottery

[raptors]

Hey everyone - thanks for your thoughts and opinions on this potential rule change — here is the formal proposal post, following our new guidelines for these types of rule changes (thanks again to Tong).

Description of the Issue

The current FBB lottery system is dated and creates narrow pathways around tanking - the odds are skewed heavily toward the bottom, forcing teams to be as bad as humanly possible to enhance their chances at selecting a top prospect. Much like the real NBA elected to do around this time to help counteract a tanking problem, the idea here is enacting the modern lottery odds that the league itself currently uses.

The Sim God himself has signed off on the possibility of this change and the extra work it will create for him, provided he has extra help to save time. A new Lottery Moderator job will be created, with the primary role of working with Ashes to minimize the amount of legwork he has to do in what will be a slightly tedious process of manually trading the corresponding picks to the correct teams.

Draft ties within the lottery will be broken by the Lottery Moderator in concert with Ashes. (I will also work to help the moderator understand the goofy anachronistic parts of how the draft works to ease the transition, i.e. how it impacts the second-round picks, how ties work, etc.).

The proposed new odds structure, similar to the NBA's model, will look like this, with potential ties leading to some slight variance in the percentages (i.e. if the fourth and fifth-worst teams are tied, the number of lottery balls typically allotted to the two spots will be split between them).

1 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
2 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
3 - 14.1% chance of No. 1 pick, 52.4% chance of top four selection
4 - 12.6% chance at No. 1, 48.4% chance top four
5 - 10.6% chance at No. 1, 42.4% chance top four
6 - 9% chance at No. 1, 37.5% chance top four
7 - 7.5% chance at No. 1, 32.1 chance top four
8 - 6% chance at No. 1, 26.5% chance top four
9 - 4.5% chance at No. 1, 20.5% chance top four
10 - 3% chance at No. 1, 13.9% chance top four
11 - 2% chance at No. 1, 9.5% chance top four
12 - 1.5% chance at No. 1, 7.2% chance top four
13 - 1% chance at No. 1, 4.8% chance top four

Link to the simulator we will use: https://zengm.com/universal-draft-lottery-simulator/

In theory, this change in odds lessens the pressure on tanking teams to completely gut their rosters, creating better rebuild pathways and team construction options, as well as more trade liquidity to take on salary and players from other teams and derive value. A few extra wins here and there might matter less in the grand scheme. It also introduces more randomness and ideally reduces the need for all-out tank-offs. There is no way to prevent people from tanking — nor should we, because rebuilding can be enjoyable — but the adaptation of flatter odds and adding a fourth lottery spot should make things more interesting, more balanced, less predictable, and hopefully, more fun for all of us.

For a full description of the proposal, how the current system works, and more on why I think this is a simple improvement on the game, please see my FAQ here: https://www.simleaguenirvana.com/viewtopic.php?t=2722

Description of Poll options

After considering everyone's thoughts on the matter, there are three options here to consider.

Option 1: Enact the new lottery system for the 2021 draft

-This falls in accordance with Adam's general rule change timeline, where we wait two seasons before implementing any new rule changes. This would see the new lottery go into effect ahead of the 2021 draft (two drafts from now).

Option 2: Enact the new lottery system for the 2022 draft

-Because this is a major change to how a key part of the league works, we are also proposing the option to give this an additional season before the lottery changes, giving everyone extra time to account for the possible rule change, and implementing the new system beginning in the 2021-22 season.

Option 3: No changes

If you like the lottery system the way it is, you can also vote for the status quo.


Feel free to reach out to me or Tong with any questions. I've allowed for people to change their votes, as well. A 20-vote supermajority in favor of any of the options will be necessary to effect the change. Thanks for considering!

[Tyler]

So if neither option 1 or 2 hits the 20 threshold than nothing happens even if 20 total people are in favor of flattening the odds in general ?

[raptors]

So if neither option 1 or 2 hits the 20 threshold than nothing happens even if 20 total people are in favor of flattening the odds in general ?

I think if we net 20 votes total between the two options, we'd then have a runoff, I defer to Tong @pacers

[pacers]

So if neither option 1 or 2 hits the 20 threshold than nothing happens even if 20 total people are in favor of flattening the odds in general ?

I think if we net 20 votes total between the two options, we'd then have a runoff, I defer to Tong @pacers

Yes that's right

[raptors]

Bump - please take a look and think about it and vote!

[Matt]

I have no dog in this fight as I don't have my 21 pick, but I think the way this vote was framed is pretty unfair to the current deep tankers as it pertains to the 2021 vs 2022 debate. The purpose of this rule is to flatten the odds and make it better to finish anywhere outside the top 4, so all the teams that are unlikely to have a top 4 pick in 2021 and aren't surefire juggernauts are self-motivated for the rule to be enacted for 2021, and for the reasons I argued before, I don't think that that's enough lead time for a rule change that meaningfully affects strategy as much as this one does - not to mention the fact that we actually have a precedent set for this (for a rule that affected deep tankers WAY less) and we're just choosing not to use that precedent for no reason other than impatience, it seems to me.

Can the people who are voting for 2021 explain why they think it should be enacted in 2021 vs 2022? If the reason is "I like the rule and want it to be enacted as soon as possible", I think we can do better than that since I think/hope we all assume this league is going to be around for like a hundred seasons and the one season difference is a drop in the bucket.

[Concepts of a Plan]

I have no dog in this fight as I don't have my 21 pick, but I think the way this vote was framed is pretty unfair to the current deep tankers as it pertains to the 2021 vs 2022 debate. The purpose of this rule is to flatten the odds and make it better to finish anywhere outside the top 4, so all the teams that are unlikely to have a top 4 pick in 2021 and aren't surefire juggernauts are self-motivated for the rule to be enacted for 2021, and for the reasons I argued before, I don't think that that's enough lead time for a rule change that meaningfully affects strategy as much as this one does - not to mention the fact that we actually have a precedent set for this (for a rule that affected deep tankers WAY less) and we're just choosing not to use that precedent for no reason other than impatience, it seems to me.

Can the people who are voting for 2021 explain why they think it should be enacted in 2021 vs 2022? If the reason is "I like the rule and want it to be enacted as soon as possible", I think we can do better than that since I think/hope we all assume this league is going to be around for like a hundred seasons and the one season difference is a drop in the bucket.

I am another person who isn’t impacted by this. My pick in 21 is in Denver and you have my 22. In an effort to answer your questioning in the final paragraph, I have bolded one of your assessments that I believe is based on a false premise. The purpose of flattening lottery odds is not designed to punish or reward anyone. It is to disincentivize being so abjectly horrible that a team is 3-45 through Day 65. It’s not beneficial to anyone to be that unbelievably bad. Honestly, I’m more in favor of a wins floor where if you don’t hit that number your pick automatically moves to 4 or 5 but understand that’s a very radical approach that won’t work for the group. I think the goal of moving up the lottery odds flattening to a sooner year is to create better balance across the league and open the door to teams experimenting with players without being massively penalized for a win here or there. Jack trying to take a chance on an underwhelming top 10 pick in Marcus Smart is good for him and for the league instead of Brendan Gulick or Edward Sedran. However in the current system, let’s say Smart helps the Hornets win a game they probably wouldn’t when trotting out some waste of space that knocks him from worst overall record to 2nd worst, his odds drop 20.4% whereas in the new lotto system, they drop 0%.

All in all, flattening the lotto odds is not remotely about team building strategy, it’s about getting rid of reasons to put out teams that would lose to NDL teams. The league overall is better if our teams are better. If teams are better, the trade market in season will be better. If teams are better, free agency could actually be used as a positive for tankers instead of just being pure sign and trades or salary dumps. If teams are better, people might be more willing to camp some random guy in the hopes he improves. So yes, I think the sooner that we can disincentivize being the worst team in league history, the better. And look, if you guys still elect to do that, feel free but I find it to be a waste of a good opportunity.

[Joe]

I have no dog in this fight as I don't have my 21 pick, but I think the way this vote was framed is pretty unfair to the current deep tankers as it pertains to the 2021 vs 2022 debate. The purpose of this rule is to flatten the odds and make it better to finish anywhere outside the top 4, so all the teams that are unlikely to have a top 4 pick in 2021 and aren't surefire juggernauts are self-motivated for the rule to be enacted for 2021, and for the reasons I argued before, I don't think that that's enough lead time for a rule change that meaningfully affects strategy as much as this one does - not to mention the fact that we actually have a precedent set for this (for a rule that affected deep tankers WAY less) and we're just choosing not to use that precedent for no reason other than impatience, it seems to me.

Can the people who are voting for 2021 explain why they think it should be enacted in 2021 vs 2022? If the reason is "I like the rule and want it to be enacted as soon as possible", I think we can do better than that since I think/hope we all assume this league is going to be around for like a hundred seasons and the one season difference is a drop in the bucket.

I am another person who isn’t impacted by this. My pick in 21 is in Denver and you have my 22. In an effort to answer your questioning in the final paragraph, I have bolded one of your assessments that I believe is based on a false premise. The purpose of flattening lottery odds is not designed to punish or reward anyone. It is to disincentivize being so abjectly horrible that a team is 3-45 through Day 65. It’s not beneficial to anyone to be that unbelievably bad. Honestly, I’m more in favor of a wins floor where if you don’t hit that number your pick automatically moves to 4 or 5 but understand that’s a very radical approach that won’t work for the group. I think the goal of moving up the lottery odds flattening to a sooner year is to create better balance across the league and open the door to teams experimenting with players without being massively penalized for a win here or there. Jack trying to take a chance on an underwhelming top 10 pick in Marcus Smart is good for him and for the league instead of Brendan Gulick or Edward Sedran. However in the current system, let’s say Smart helps the Hornets win a game they probably wouldn’t when trotting out some waste of space that knocks him from worst overall record to 2nd worst, his odds drop 20.4% whereas in the new lotto system, they drop 0%.

All in all, flattening the lotto odds is not remotely about team building strategy, it’s about getting rid of reasons to put out teams that would lose to NDL teams. The league overall is better if our teams are better. If teams are better, the trade market in season will be better. If teams are better, free agency could actually be used as a positive for tankers instead of just being pure sign and trades or salary dumps. If teams are better, people might be more willing to camp some random guy in the hopes he improves. So yes, I think the sooner that we can disincentivize being the worst team in league history, the better. And look, if you guys still elect to do that, feel free but I find it to be a waste of a good opportunity.

Agree with Matt here. This post did not explain why it has to be 21 instead of 22, it just said why the rule is helpful. I think pretty much everyone agrees the rule is a good idea in the long run, including me, there are just a handful of teams right now who set their team building strategies/journeys based on the current rules. I am one of those teams, so I have a dog in the fight here and I’ve been drinkin so am happy to speak up.

Doing it in 22 instead of 21 costs competing teams effectively nothing in the scheme of the league’s existence - like Matt said, it’s a drop in the bucket in what is hopefully hundreds of seasons - and it DOES give teams that made their decisions based on the previous rules more time to adjust. That is, the net benefit of the rule change in 21 vs 22 is virtually identical in the long run, whereas the net cost of doing it in 21 instead of 22 is significantly different for a handful of teams. Why would we not just choose the Pareto optimal outcome here? Feels like choosing to do it in 21 with no logical basis other than “a good rule change one season sooner is better” is just a deliberate effort to penalize teams that are tanking right now, which I’m also inferring from the tone of this post and the mention of the Nuggets record. Not liking that strategy is fine (I’m not thrilled to be doing it either), but punishing teams for choosing it under the accepted set of rules feels pretty unfair. And this is to say nothing of the extremely relevant historical parallel from the RFA rule change, which we determined would be a 3-year grandfather process to give teams time to adjust. I’m honestly a little surprised 21 is even an option given that.

We have an obvious option of 22, well-based in historical precedent, which would make literally everyone who cares about this happy! Why would we choose the one that makes some people unhappy?

[Tyler]

I voted for 21 because I wanted to hit the 20 threshold so this gets passed. I don’t care at all when this gets implemented but do hope it does in fact get implemented. I’m not sure I agree that 2021 really screws over anyone too bad (deep tanks have always been lame!!!) but at the same time if people are upset about it, and it impacts their team building plans that they’ve already made critical decisions off of, I can totally understand waiting to 2022. If having the flatter odds, means Joe keep Gordon Hayward, I think that’s a material enough decision to be upset about.

Again, I don’t feel strongly one way or the other but am fine waiting to 2022 if people feel passionately about that, which some clearly do. I really just want this implemented for the Wemby draft.

[Joe]

would have def made me think about dear gordon