SLN Mad Money Ratings

[Joe]

SLN Mad Money: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

There’s been a lot of talk on pods about who should be buying and selling and who’s been sitting on their hands so long they’re ready to give themselves a Stranger, so I figured a little Op Ed on the trade market couldn’t hurt. In this piece of totally non-self-interested propaganda, I break down what I think each team SHOULD be doing and what they’ve got on hand to be doing it with. I know, it’s not exactly Mad Money because the ratings are what the teams (not investors) should do, but this title/structure will get way more clicks and who knows, maybe a better grade from those wise and generous gentlemen who dole out the content RP at the end of the year.

For the most valuable trade assets, I only included stuff that I think that team could or should trade, depending on what their rating (BUY/SELL/HOLD) is; e.g., Detroit is and should be selling, and their most valuable roster piece is Haliburton, but they probably shouldn’t consider Haliburton a top trade asset right now unless they want to be tanking until Lebron’s first grandchild gets drafted by the Lakers.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I only got through the East because this took a while, definitely not because the West is a wayyyyy lower priority of mine. Will get to the West in the next day or two!

ATLANTIC

Boston Celtics
Rating: BUY / HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Hassan Whiteside, Anfernee Simons, Jaden McDaniels, TOR 21, LAL 24, Ja Morant (maybe??)
Why: Boston is without their star big man for the duration of the year and the clock is (probably) ticking on Harden’s prime. Sans Whiteside, Boston is firmly in the tier below New York, Indiana, Charlotte and Atlanta and probably the owners of pretty long championship odds. If they think they can luck into the second round of the playoffs, might make sense to hold onto Whiteside until he returns; if not, Boston could use an upgrade, particularly in the rebounding department, and could move the still highly productive Whiteside or some of their young prospects to do so.

Miami Heat
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Okafor, Dame
Why: Miami is -12 in a full on tank, but they’d be worse if they unloaded their two competent starters (although Dame is probably doing a fine job tank commanding with 4 TOs a game).

Brooklyn Nets
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Kemba Walker
Why: Getting rid of AD and Blake was a good start, but a competent point guard will always keep you from bottoming out, and Kemba’s considerably more than competent. There should be plenty of teams out there willing to take on a big expiring in this hard-cap-less environment, as Kemba is still probably a Top 10-ish guy at the 1 and he knows that horses are not, in fact, just really big dogs.

New York Knicks
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: 756 RP and Tre Jones.
Why: On the one hand, the Knicks have the best team in the league. On the other, that is literally ALL they have, though, as Nav has emptied the NY coffers of picks, players and RP in pursuit of this juggernaut. They could probably spend a few shekels on a better fourth big (the aforementioned Emeka seems like a good fit), but it’s hard for me to recommend any changes when this team is +13 halfway through the year and casting a very large, very Cameroonian shadow over my own organization.

Orlando Magic
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: ORL 24, 25, 26
Why: Orlando is a good team, not a great team. They’ve got elite shooting, good stocks and passable rebounding, but the turnovers in the frontcourt are absolutely killing them - they’re second to last among non-tankers in TOPG. They’ve started to solve this problem by shipping out Tristan Thompson for Robin Lopez (savvy move, Merv), but the next guy to go should probably be Zubac. If Sullinger got traded for value on his deal, Orlando should be able to find someone to take the big Croat. Then they can invest all of the team’s ticket revenue in genetic research to clone 3 more John Hensons to fill out the frontcourt.

Philadelphia 76ers
Rating: SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Deandre Jordan
Why: The guys keeping this team from truly bottoming out are all on hilariously untradeable contracts (for now), so the Sixers can really only get worse by moving DJ, and then look to ditch CP3 and LMA’s expirings in 2021. Unfortunately, despite DJ’s still excellent production, at 32 years old and owed $56M in the next 4 seasons, DMo might have to settle for something less than the king’s ransom he’s hoping for.

Washington Bullets
Rating: HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: Shabazz Muhammed, Ant, Maxey
Why: At the beginning of the season I might have said buy; alas, we are at Day 60 and the addition of Anthony Davis has not moved the needle for Washington as much as Weston may have hoped, mostly because Anthony Davis doesn’t play point guard so the Bullets are starting a true rookie at that position all year. With still relatively few tankers, it probably makes the most sense to finish out this season in the lottery and snag another asset and look to flip the switch next year. There aren’t any vets on the roster that won’t be around for Maxey/Ant’s ascension, so not much to sell either. If I strap on my Captain Hindsight cape, this team would have been a great destination for Kemba as well as AD if winning had been the vision in 2020.


CENTRAL

Atlanta Hawks
Rating: BUY/HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: 1500 RP.
Why: It’s a testament to how incredible the Atlanta starters are that this team is +8 with close to 50 minutes a game coming from leftover FAs Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes and Rakeem Christmas (whose secret stip of course involves the receipt of +20 potential left under the tree on the 25th). A little upgrade in the frontcourt would go a long way to closing the small gap between them and the Hornets/Pacers, though Atlanta doesn’t have a ton of salary to move. Another potential home for Mr. Okafor?

Charlotte Hornets
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: CHA 22, 24 (I think?)
Why: This team is +12 and leading the competitive Central with Draymond Green playing 30 minutes a game – truly astounding. With Boogie at the 5, they need to make sure they’re getting blocks from the other big man spots, and Draymond is positively allergic to rim protection – Charlotte’s only weakness is the 6th worse block rate in the league (they obliterate everyone else in every other category). If Draymond were replaced with a league-average big butt sporting a 2+ stock to TO ratio and not shooting it so much, Charlotte would surpass NYK as the top dog in the East (and the league). Scary thought!

Chicago Bulls
Rating: BUY/HOLD
Most valuable trade assets: DET 22, Inflamed Larry Sanders, Dillon Brooks, Klay Thompson
Why: Chicago has suffered some bad luck as of late with the Sanders injury, but Luka’s emergence in 2020 has opened their competitive window. Unfortunately, their lack of boards on the wing is leading to a -3 rebounding differential and torpedoing their chances of competing in a crowded Central. Brooks and Thompson both have value and could be useful to a team that can afford to punt a little on the glass in favor of scoring. Adding the vaunted DET 22 to one of them could make for a pretty compelling package to bring back a guy in the mold of, say, Shabbazz Muhammed or Rudy Gay?

Cleveland Cavaliers
Rating: HOLD, then SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Zack Levine, DLo
Why: Zack Levine and D-Lo are both pretty cool players on their own, but it’s really tough to win with your two backcourt guys coughing it up more than 6 times a game. Though the addition of Winslow (I assume to play the 3) will help offset the possession issue, without Nerlens the frontcourt cupboard is now looking bare, with Maker the only big left that averages less than 1.5 TOs per 36. Cleveland doesn’t have their 21 or 24, but they do have their 22 and 23. I’d say hold pat until the trade deadline to see how the Winslow experiment works, and then trade either Russell or Lavine for a very large package at the deadline and retool around whichever of them is left (for my money, it's probably trade D-Lo, as his value is tied closely to 2-year, incredibly cheap deal). The rest of the roster is young enough that it could make a lot of sense to spend a season sucking in 2021 to grab a nice trade chip in the draft, and then reinvest that and all of the assets from the deadline trade in a new PG and PF/C and flip the switch back in 2022.

Detroit Pistons
Rating: SELL, I guess?
Most valuable trade assets: a great personality.
Why: Detroit’s roster is a barren wasteland outside of the very exciting Haliburton, and their only playable vet, Brandon Jennings, is on a contract worth about 6 Brandon Jennings…s. If they can sell anyone, great. If not, the tank seems to be going swimmingly regardless.

Indiana Pacers
Rating: BUY
Most valuable trade assets: Luke Kennard, Tyler Herro, Miles Bridges, CHI 21
Why: Indiana put together an awesome offseason and has a nice young core complemented by proven vets; they’ve made it from the middle to the top tier of the East in a hurry. However, this season may be the end of the window for this exact roster construction, with star PF Al Hefty likely heading to the painted area in the sky at year’s end. To maximize their championship chances in an East full of superteams, they need an upgrade at the wing this season – Bridges’ 28 mpg while doing a whole lot of nothing seem to be the only weak point on an otherwise deep and dangerous roster. Upgrading that spot to either a rebounding, scoring or stock specialist could have Indiana challenging Charlotte for the Central.

Milwaukee Bucks
Rating: HOLD maybe SELL if feeling frisky
Most valuable trade assets: SGA
Why: Like Boston, Milwaukee has had their whole goddam leg bitten off by the injury bug in a season where they had lofty hopes. Fortunately, the team is super young and affordable, so just hanging tight til next season makes plenty of sense. That said, before OPJ and MKG went down, the Bucks were safely in the second tier of East teams without much help from SGA, thanks to the rebirth of Cory Joseph the White after he defeated the Balrog. Pure trade value-wise, SGA remains a top-10 asset in SLN – he could be flipped into a super-duper-star at the deadline and the Bucks could ride the Cojo rocket to the moon next season.

Toronto Raptors:
Rating: HOLD/SELL
Most valuable trade assets: Aaron Gordon
Why: Without their pick in 21, Toronto is no big hurry to move Gordon, who was having a breakout year before going down with a torn hamstring. The rest of the roster is primarily either overpaid vets of moderate production (Valanciunas, Gobert), or promising young fellas who jwoo likely sees as part of the future up North (MPJ, Okoro). With their plans to tear it down for Wemby well-documented, the Raptors are in a bit of an awkward purgatory period. Seems like they’re just looking to have fun for now and will probably sell off some assets toward the end of next year in preparation for the great Tank for the Lank, aka Brick for Vic, aka Play Really Bad for the Tall French Lad.