What's at stake in the draft lottery?
What's at stake in the draft lottery?
With the draft lotto approaching fast, took a deeper look at the landscape of lottery teams and their various rebuilds to better understand what's at stake.
I realize we don't know who's in the draft yet so hard to analyze team fits (maybe will do a mock draft later because I need RP) but this is a shorter version of a column I've written a million times IRL, lol.
Here are the current odds before ties are broken, for reference (I denoted the ties, this is just a sample version of what it might be)
Miami Heat (14-68)
Core players: Alperen Sengun, James Wiseman
Cap space: Yes
Odds: 14.1% chance at No. 1, 52.4% chance of top-four pick
This is a big lottery for the Heat, who have been tanking for a while but have had shitty luck, having seen their pick land outside of the top four in the past two drafts. The flatter odds make it far from guaranteed that this year is any different, but Scoops has perhaps accrued some good lottery karma and is tied for best odds with the Nets and Mavs. Miami can pick no lower than fifth in any scenario.
The Heat have a good chunk of cap space this off-season, and while the roster is a ways away, Miami could certainly use some perimeter talent to complement Sengun (who had a pretty solid rookie season) and Wiseman (who is still kind of a ball of clay but needs help beefing up his cheeks). Landing an elite prospect would give Miami more momentum moving forward, and the Heat have all their own picks and a 2023 first coming from the Clippers. The timeline here is fuzzy still and highly dependent on drafting well.
New Jersey Nets (16-66)
Core players: Zion Williamson, Jonathan Kuminga, Herb Jones
Cap space: Yes
Odds: 14.1% chance at No. 1, 52.4% chance of top-four pick
This is another somewhat ambling rebuild. Good thing Steven's favorite song is Ambling Man by the Allman Brothers, ask him about it. The Nets have a lot of cap space and a lot of draft capital (four firsts in this year's draft) but not a ton to show for it — the duo of Kuminga and Jones was wisely sent to the NDL, where they cooked this season and look like they'll become great pieces. Having said that, the future backcourt situation here is pretty atrocious, and the Nets don't figure to be very good next season regardless of what happens with Deandre Ayton's free agency.
With NDL Zion looking like more of a fun role player long-term after some underwhelming TCs, the Nets really need to land a franchise-caliber guy. They can pick no lower than sixth. They have multiple firsts coming in the next few drafts, giving Steven some assets to cash in when it's time to improve. But they could use a home run here to solidify the core. It figures to be another season or two of losing regardless while the NDL fellas marinate.
Dallas Mavericks (19-63)
Core players: Evan Mobley, Trae Young, Desmond Bane, Patrick Williams
Cap space: No
Odds: 14.1% chance at No. 1, 52.4% chance of top-four pick
The Mavs are better-positioned from a personnel front than most of the other teams in the high lottery, with Mobley and Young showing a lot of promise last season and Bane and Williams shaping up as rotation-worthy guys long-term. Unless Kevin Love retires, the Mavs won't have cap space, but the roster seems to be going in a better direction, and Hoff has a lot of future picks to push in if he wants to improve the team. This might be Dallas's best chance at another top lotto pick, with the young guys figuring to get better and Hoff notoriously impatient when it comes to rebuilding.
Dallas could use a true rebounding five to cover for the litany of guys who do not board so well. They could also use help on the wing, whether that's via internal improvement or through the draft/other means (it's probably hard to play Patrick Williams a lot of minutes unless the other starting wing is an elite scorer).
Houston Rockets (22-60)
Core players: Um, Obi Toppin?
Cap space: No
Odds: 12.6% chance at No. 1, 48.4% chance of top-four pick
The Rockets probably are tops on the lotto desperation scale — they are loaded up on undesirable contracts and don't have noteworthy young talent. They have three firsts in this draft including their own but got slightly shafted by the Sonics squeaking into the playoffs and the Kings getting hot at midseason). Still, this is a huge off-season and draft for Houston, who may not be able to unload Anderson or Siakam. Last I checked, Nolan also didn't use an RFA tag on Michael Porter Jr — the most valuable player on the roster — which makes him a flight risk.
Anyway, Houston really needs some good luck, but has an opportunity to restock on talent through this year's draft. They also have a mountain of RP I think, so there's a chance this can get kick-started with good prospects who will get the care they need.
Toronto Raptors (25-57)
Core players: Scottie Barnes, Isaac Okoro, Jordan Poole
Cap space: Yes
Odds: ~12.8% chance at No. 1, ~54% chance of top-four pick
The Raptors and Clippers will have a tiebreak for the 5/6 slots but the actual odds assigned to those two picks are more or less the same regardless (one combination splits the difference). However, because Toronto owns the Minnesota pick (10th best odds), their actual lotto odds are buffed a bit, giving them slightly better odds than Houston to win the lottery, and potentially the best overall odds (by a hair if they win the tiebreak) of landing a pick in the top four. There are also highly unlikely scenarios where we could pick twice in the top four, but hey, here's hoping.
We could really use some long-term frontcourt help, which logically figures to be a focus in this draft, but there's enough flexibility to go best available, with three first-round picks (No. 17 from GSW) and also three picks in the 30s for NDL stashing. We don't figure to be good for another couple seasons at least, so I'd guess we end up with multiple future cracks at the lotto, but this is a big chance for us.
LA Clippers (25-57)
Core players: Markelle Fultz
Cap space: Yes
Odds: ~11.4% chance at No. 1, ~47.8% chance of top-four pick
The Clippers and Raptors will break ties for one extra lottery combination that determines the 5/6 slots before the lotto runs. This is a hugely important lottery for the Clippers, who have a lot of cap space and don't have their own first in 2023, making them a threat to sign and retain a top player or two in the interest of making the playoffs in what has been a pretty thin Western Conference.
The Clips also caught a break with the Pacers narrowly missing the playoffs, buffing their lottery odds by a hair, and will need ties broken for that pick with the Bucks.
Having a very young MVP on the roster obviously helps, but finding him a running mate through the draft or other means has to be an immediate priority for the Clips. Fultz only has two years left on his contract before commanding a bigger payday. Landing a top pick through the lotto could be massive.
Chicago Bulls (54-28)
Core players: Luka Doncic
Cap space: No
Odds: ~6.8% chance at No. 1, 29.6% chance of top-four pick
Here's where things get really interesting — the Bulls have Detroit's pick (which will need to be tiebroken with the Philly pick that belongs to Cleveland). Chicago took a huge leap forward this season but also has a veteran-heavy roster around 22-year-old Luka — this pick could be a really nice opportunity for Matt to add another younger core player, particularly if it were to jump. The Bulls loading up with a top pick here to add to a perennial playoff-caliber roster would make the East even more difficult.
Cleveland Cavaliers (41-41)
Core players: Zach LaVine
Cap space: Yes
Odds: ~6.7% chance at No. 1, 29.2% chance of top-four pick
The Cavs did very well in unloading Justise Winslow for the Philadelphia first, which will need ties broken with the Detroit first that's going to Chicago. Cleveland snuck into the playoffs anyway, but now enters a really critical offseason, holding this pick, but also dealing with free agencies of three starters — D'Angelo Russell, Boogie Cousins and Thon Maker. This pick could be a nice trade chip, but also gives Cleveland a chance to snag a top talent to develop with the franchise in a state of flux.
Finding guys who don't turn the ball over that can complement LaVine is probably still the priority, and with their next three firsts owed to other teams, the Cavs will have to figure this out on the fly. Retaining their free agents is likely the top focus, but some lottery luck would be huge.
Denver Nuggets (32-50)
Core players: Goga Bitadze, Jalen Green, Marvin Bagley, Matisse Thybulle, the Balls
Cap space: No
Odds: 4.5% chance at No. 1, 20.5% chance of top-four pick
Denver has a really interesting collection of young talent and is probably nearing a point of consolidation — Lu Dort and the NDL pairing of Payton Pritchard and Terence Davis are also here, among others. The Nuggets would certainly benefit in a huge way from some unlikely lotto luck, but this is a big off-season regardless, with Denver in midst of a long playoff drought and the various players here starting to perform.
The Nuggets also have three other firsts in this draft plus a good collection of future capital and are positioned to be buyers and make some moves regardless of what happens in the lottery — it's probably worth considering moving some of these young guys before free agencies start to pile up. I think this is an interesting franchise to watch in terms of flipping the switch, with position in the West up for grabs.
Milwaukee Bucks (40-42)
Core players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell
Cap space: No
Odds: ~1.8% chance at No. 1, 8.5% chance of top-four pick
This is a long shot, but the Bucks already won their off-season by getting a clutch re-sign from SGA. Milwaukee has been somewhat stuck in the middle of a crowded east, but their backcourt is still super young and talented, giving them a good runway to improve — however, they don't have their next few firsts after this one after sending three picks to Denver for Otto Porter Jr. a couple seasons ago. They need frontcourt help in particular but are a bit stuck on the Nurkic and Cauley-Stein contracts. If this pick jumps it's a gigantic break for the Bucks, obviously.
San Antonio Spurs (41-41)
Core players: Mikal Bridges, Mitchell Robinson, John Collins
Cap space: No
Odds: 1% chance at No. 1, 4.8% chance of top-four pick
Last but not least (I guess technically least) is the Spurs — Jordo tried to tank but more or less failed, then got some nice re-signing offers, putting him in a position to try to improve the roster. He probably won't win the lottery, but hey, who knows. It sounds like San Antonio could be a buyer this off-season, along with a number of West teams — will the balance of power shift back? Regardless, this would be a big break to get a tank-worthy prospect after not really tanking that effectively.
I realize we don't know who's in the draft yet so hard to analyze team fits (maybe will do a mock draft later because I need RP) but this is a shorter version of a column I've written a million times IRL, lol.
Here are the current odds before ties are broken, for reference (I denoted the ties, this is just a sample version of what it might be)
Miami Heat (14-68)
Core players: Alperen Sengun, James Wiseman
Cap space: Yes
Odds: 14.1% chance at No. 1, 52.4% chance of top-four pick
This is a big lottery for the Heat, who have been tanking for a while but have had shitty luck, having seen their pick land outside of the top four in the past two drafts. The flatter odds make it far from guaranteed that this year is any different, but Scoops has perhaps accrued some good lottery karma and is tied for best odds with the Nets and Mavs. Miami can pick no lower than fifth in any scenario.
The Heat have a good chunk of cap space this off-season, and while the roster is a ways away, Miami could certainly use some perimeter talent to complement Sengun (who had a pretty solid rookie season) and Wiseman (who is still kind of a ball of clay but needs help beefing up his cheeks). Landing an elite prospect would give Miami more momentum moving forward, and the Heat have all their own picks and a 2023 first coming from the Clippers. The timeline here is fuzzy still and highly dependent on drafting well.
New Jersey Nets (16-66)
Core players: Zion Williamson, Jonathan Kuminga, Herb Jones
Cap space: Yes
Odds: 14.1% chance at No. 1, 52.4% chance of top-four pick
This is another somewhat ambling rebuild. Good thing Steven's favorite song is Ambling Man by the Allman Brothers, ask him about it. The Nets have a lot of cap space and a lot of draft capital (four firsts in this year's draft) but not a ton to show for it — the duo of Kuminga and Jones was wisely sent to the NDL, where they cooked this season and look like they'll become great pieces. Having said that, the future backcourt situation here is pretty atrocious, and the Nets don't figure to be very good next season regardless of what happens with Deandre Ayton's free agency.
With NDL Zion looking like more of a fun role player long-term after some underwhelming TCs, the Nets really need to land a franchise-caliber guy. They can pick no lower than sixth. They have multiple firsts coming in the next few drafts, giving Steven some assets to cash in when it's time to improve. But they could use a home run here to solidify the core. It figures to be another season or two of losing regardless while the NDL fellas marinate.
Dallas Mavericks (19-63)
Core players: Evan Mobley, Trae Young, Desmond Bane, Patrick Williams
Cap space: No
Odds: 14.1% chance at No. 1, 52.4% chance of top-four pick
The Mavs are better-positioned from a personnel front than most of the other teams in the high lottery, with Mobley and Young showing a lot of promise last season and Bane and Williams shaping up as rotation-worthy guys long-term. Unless Kevin Love retires, the Mavs won't have cap space, but the roster seems to be going in a better direction, and Hoff has a lot of future picks to push in if he wants to improve the team. This might be Dallas's best chance at another top lotto pick, with the young guys figuring to get better and Hoff notoriously impatient when it comes to rebuilding.
Dallas could use a true rebounding five to cover for the litany of guys who do not board so well. They could also use help on the wing, whether that's via internal improvement or through the draft/other means (it's probably hard to play Patrick Williams a lot of minutes unless the other starting wing is an elite scorer).
Houston Rockets (22-60)
Core players: Um, Obi Toppin?
Cap space: No
Odds: 12.6% chance at No. 1, 48.4% chance of top-four pick
The Rockets probably are tops on the lotto desperation scale — they are loaded up on undesirable contracts and don't have noteworthy young talent. They have three firsts in this draft including their own but got slightly shafted by the Sonics squeaking into the playoffs and the Kings getting hot at midseason). Still, this is a huge off-season and draft for Houston, who may not be able to unload Anderson or Siakam. Last I checked, Nolan also didn't use an RFA tag on Michael Porter Jr — the most valuable player on the roster — which makes him a flight risk.
Anyway, Houston really needs some good luck, but has an opportunity to restock on talent through this year's draft. They also have a mountain of RP I think, so there's a chance this can get kick-started with good prospects who will get the care they need.
Toronto Raptors (25-57)
Core players: Scottie Barnes, Isaac Okoro, Jordan Poole
Cap space: Yes
Odds: ~12.8% chance at No. 1, ~54% chance of top-four pick
The Raptors and Clippers will have a tiebreak for the 5/6 slots but the actual odds assigned to those two picks are more or less the same regardless (one combination splits the difference). However, because Toronto owns the Minnesota pick (10th best odds), their actual lotto odds are buffed a bit, giving them slightly better odds than Houston to win the lottery, and potentially the best overall odds (by a hair if they win the tiebreak) of landing a pick in the top four. There are also highly unlikely scenarios where we could pick twice in the top four, but hey, here's hoping.
We could really use some long-term frontcourt help, which logically figures to be a focus in this draft, but there's enough flexibility to go best available, with three first-round picks (No. 17 from GSW) and also three picks in the 30s for NDL stashing. We don't figure to be good for another couple seasons at least, so I'd guess we end up with multiple future cracks at the lotto, but this is a big chance for us.
LA Clippers (25-57)
Core players: Markelle Fultz
Cap space: Yes
Odds: ~11.4% chance at No. 1, ~47.8% chance of top-four pick
The Clippers and Raptors will break ties for one extra lottery combination that determines the 5/6 slots before the lotto runs. This is a hugely important lottery for the Clippers, who have a lot of cap space and don't have their own first in 2023, making them a threat to sign and retain a top player or two in the interest of making the playoffs in what has been a pretty thin Western Conference.
The Clips also caught a break with the Pacers narrowly missing the playoffs, buffing their lottery odds by a hair, and will need ties broken for that pick with the Bucks.
Having a very young MVP on the roster obviously helps, but finding him a running mate through the draft or other means has to be an immediate priority for the Clips. Fultz only has two years left on his contract before commanding a bigger payday. Landing a top pick through the lotto could be massive.
Chicago Bulls (54-28)
Core players: Luka Doncic
Cap space: No
Odds: ~6.8% chance at No. 1, 29.6% chance of top-four pick
Here's where things get really interesting — the Bulls have Detroit's pick (which will need to be tiebroken with the Philly pick that belongs to Cleveland). Chicago took a huge leap forward this season but also has a veteran-heavy roster around 22-year-old Luka — this pick could be a really nice opportunity for Matt to add another younger core player, particularly if it were to jump. The Bulls loading up with a top pick here to add to a perennial playoff-caliber roster would make the East even more difficult.
Cleveland Cavaliers (41-41)
Core players: Zach LaVine
Cap space: Yes
Odds: ~6.7% chance at No. 1, 29.2% chance of top-four pick
The Cavs did very well in unloading Justise Winslow for the Philadelphia first, which will need ties broken with the Detroit first that's going to Chicago. Cleveland snuck into the playoffs anyway, but now enters a really critical offseason, holding this pick, but also dealing with free agencies of three starters — D'Angelo Russell, Boogie Cousins and Thon Maker. This pick could be a nice trade chip, but also gives Cleveland a chance to snag a top talent to develop with the franchise in a state of flux.
Finding guys who don't turn the ball over that can complement LaVine is probably still the priority, and with their next three firsts owed to other teams, the Cavs will have to figure this out on the fly. Retaining their free agents is likely the top focus, but some lottery luck would be huge.
Denver Nuggets (32-50)
Core players: Goga Bitadze, Jalen Green, Marvin Bagley, Matisse Thybulle, the Balls
Cap space: No
Odds: 4.5% chance at No. 1, 20.5% chance of top-four pick
Denver has a really interesting collection of young talent and is probably nearing a point of consolidation — Lu Dort and the NDL pairing of Payton Pritchard and Terence Davis are also here, among others. The Nuggets would certainly benefit in a huge way from some unlikely lotto luck, but this is a big off-season regardless, with Denver in midst of a long playoff drought and the various players here starting to perform.
The Nuggets also have three other firsts in this draft plus a good collection of future capital and are positioned to be buyers and make some moves regardless of what happens in the lottery — it's probably worth considering moving some of these young guys before free agencies start to pile up. I think this is an interesting franchise to watch in terms of flipping the switch, with position in the West up for grabs.
Milwaukee Bucks (40-42)
Core players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell
Cap space: No
Odds: ~1.8% chance at No. 1, 8.5% chance of top-four pick
This is a long shot, but the Bucks already won their off-season by getting a clutch re-sign from SGA. Milwaukee has been somewhat stuck in the middle of a crowded east, but their backcourt is still super young and talented, giving them a good runway to improve — however, they don't have their next few firsts after this one after sending three picks to Denver for Otto Porter Jr. a couple seasons ago. They need frontcourt help in particular but are a bit stuck on the Nurkic and Cauley-Stein contracts. If this pick jumps it's a gigantic break for the Bucks, obviously.
San Antonio Spurs (41-41)
Core players: Mikal Bridges, Mitchell Robinson, John Collins
Cap space: No
Odds: 1% chance at No. 1, 4.8% chance of top-four pick
Last but not least (I guess technically least) is the Spurs — Jordo tried to tank but more or less failed, then got some nice re-signing offers, putting him in a position to try to improve the roster. He probably won't win the lottery, but hey, who knows. It sounds like San Antonio could be a buyer this off-season, along with a number of West teams — will the balance of power shift back? Regardless, this would be a big break to get a tank-worthy prospect after not really tanking that effectively.
Last edited by jwoo on January 29th, 2025, 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
free healthcare has never been more important
Great article. Also confused as to why the rockets didn’t tag MPJ?
Fauci is a nerd
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mantypas/CavsCzar
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FOR THE LAND
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JeBronyLames
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Rooting for Houston to get Wemby so I can start with a nice piece
terrible vibes in houston for the past 5 months. Might need to bring on an assistant GMJeBronyLames wrote: January 28th, 2025, 3:55 pm Rooting for Houston to get Wemby so I can start with a nice piece
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