Preseason Power Rankings / Tiers

[quady]

We already podded about this, but I decided to smush together the preseason stats , along with the win projections of those of you kind enough to get them in already, to build a simple rating system and win projections for this season. If you disagree with these rankings, that's totally fine, I do too. Just get your team to play better in preseason. Unless that is you are the Hawks, in which case you're grandfathered in to the top spot.

Elite Tier

Hawks
Not the best preseason for Atlanta, but they earned the honorary spot on top of the projections after returning almost completely the team that broke the wins record last season. As long as their core stays healthy, they will be very very good.

Bulls
Chicago had the most impressive preseason in a while, going nearly +30 in PS2 on insane shooting. My very simple win projection system has them winning 102% of their games, so Heimer look out. If he starts at the 1 all season, I’ll handicap Luka as a -110 MVP candidate.

Jazz
Another stellar team in preseason, this feels like a classic deep Utah roster despite only being 12 guys, two of them second rounders, and one a leftover free agent. Fred VanVleet and Derrick Jones Jr. are just that good, and the other pieces fit beautifully. I’m looking at you specifically, THJ, and those D / D+ defense and rebounding ratings.

Hornets
My projection: 65 wins. Projected finish in division: third. Life is just not fair sometimes. If Jack trades Lou Williams for a center, this team is maybe close to perfect? The Monta Ellis snag in free agency was excellent - he should still have enough juice to start, or play a very able backup 1-3. Semi is a top 5 player and Jonathan Isaac will lead from the pulpit frontcourt.

Home Court Tier

Spurs
The River Walk is jumping again! Mitchell Robinson and John Collins looked great in preseason, Mikal Bridges is coming along, Dort should add some solid wing minutes, and I love the Garland / Murray pair as point guard options. Jordo is definitely in buy-mode, and this team is looking ready to compete.

Suns
Phoenix had a less than ideal offseason with Isaac Bonga walking in free agency, but it didn’t slow them down a ton in preseason. I’m not positive they have their starting point guard yet, but that doesn't seem to matter a ton - I simply don’t think they can be bad as long as Rui and Jokic stay healthy.

Trail Blazers
More wings than you can shake a stick at! I was extremely disappointed to see Monta not retire over the offseason, which in a roundabout way cost us Darius Bazley, but happy to ultimately replace that salary with Shabazz Muhhammad and Jordan Poole. I’m hoping Muhhammad should be an extremely overqualified third banana, and that we can play basically no bad minutes especially at the wings and the 1.

Magic
Despite sending Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard out, Orlando still looks very strong, led in preseason by insane Aaron Gordon stat lines, steady play from D’Angelo Russell, a bit of Devin Booker, and a really excellent Terence Davis run. Get your Magic division winner bets in now while you still can.

Nuggets
At least in the preseason, it didn’t look like Embiid Ewing Theory held much water. Embiid and Goga are tremendous frontcourt anchors, complemented very nicely by Kawhi and Kelly at the wings. IMHO Orlando Kawhi was pretty underrated by the SLN cognoscenti, and is at worst a top 10 or 12 player. Payton Pritchard also looks great at the 1, as an extremely disinterested passer.

Pistons
Another team shifting into buying, Detroit snagged the latest graduate of the Portland School of Player Development (accreditation pending) in Darius Bazley, rounding out a very exciting young trio with Tyrese Haliburton and Cade Cunningham. If they get off to a hot start, I’d look for them to use some of the $35+ million in expiring frontcourt salary to try to swing some upgrades to the backline.

Playoff Contenders

Bullets
The hottest team in Preseason 1, Washington sat Anthony Davis and Anthony Edwards in large part for Preseason 2, ultimately recording an 8-4 record but as a negative differential team. I think it’s time for Wes to put some more chips in, especially while they have no incentive to lose this year, and AD and Ant should take them pretty far as is. It hurts that Naz Reid hasn’t developed faster, and that Shabazz walked in free agency, but the Bullets have plenty of juice still.


Pacers
The Pacers struggled a bit last year despite being a very common breakout team pick. I can’t tell what the problem was exactly - this roster still looks great to me and I trust Tong to figure it out. They were a basically .500 team in PS2 without De’Aaron Fox playing at all. Unless he’s a secret lock room cancer, I could easily see them crossing the 50 win threshold.

Bucks
Maybe this will be the Shai breakout season? Milwaukee is stuck in by far the toughest division, but they have good sources of potential upside between Shai, Luka, and the McDaniels’, plus movable salary. Between Shai, Jimmy, and Trae, they should have plenty of scoring if they can find an effective way to deploy it all at once.

Warriors
How did Ivica Zubac score 17 points a game in Preseason 2? This is a good team and absolutely should be in the playoffs.. Jrue is still awesome and Victor Oladipo is a great (and rare!) possession adding shooting guard. The Zubac acquisition helped a lot last season, especially given the Warriors have felt like they were a big short for a while. Between Zubac, Tarik Black, Precious Achiuwa and Mo Bamba, they should have at least decent minutes consistently in the frontcourt. Denzel Valentine was a good addition as well. However while I don’t think Tatum is a lost cause, he doesn’t necessarily look like a real difference maker for the Warriors this season.

Mavericks
I’m not totally sure what direction the Mavs are taking, but I like Donovan Mitchell maybe more than most, and LaMelo is already starting to pop. Between those two and Desmond Bane, Dallas can soak up basically all backcourt minutes with volume scoring and reasonably efficient play, and with what looks like decent positional defense. Deandre Ayton played great in the first preseason sim and a bit more like standard Ayton in the second, but Chet looks ready to go and then between Kevin Love and Evan Mobley, there are interesting options for backup forward minutes. This team absolutely could contend if Hoff wanted to buy, but it might be more prudent to wait.

Lakers
GX was unfortunately the latest victim of the Kyrie SLN reign of terror this offseason, leaving the Lakers in a bit of flux. I know them to be shopping for a point guard, and there are options out there, but nothing has yet materialized. Maybe if the Trae thing doesn’t work out in Milwaukee there’s a Trae for Gordon Hayward shaped deal? The Lakers are out their own picks for a while and unless they deal for a younger player, look kind of tapped out on upside, too. As is, I don't think they make the playoffs, but they could easily be a Trae or a Payton Pritchard or a Dejounte Murray away.

Grizzlies
Josh did very well in my humble opinion getting out of the Nurkic business and adding Cory Joseph last year. There is not a lot of wing defense on this team, and they struggled a bit rebounding and winning possessions in preseason. I imagine they’ll be able to score a lot between Joseph, Hield, Ingram, and Porzingis, and with good efficiency as well, the question is just going to be whether they can get enough stops at the other end.

SuperSonics
The Sonics were the final Western Conference team in the playoffs last year, and I’m projecting them to finish at a roughly similar level this year. The draft day trade to get Ausar Thompson was a very nice move I thought, but not something that’s going to help win games this year. The bones of a very good team are here with Brunson looking like a star, Jaylen Brown a prototypical 3 and D wing, Ausar, and then whatever the CPU did with Ben Simmons in the first sim. Julius Randle is contentious, but very movable on his shrinking deal I’d think. On the other hand, you could argue with Brunson and Brown both 26 that this is the time to go for it, so maybe Ausar and Simmons are the chips to help upgrade the forward and big spots. I don’t imagine Nick will want to convey a lottery pick, so I’d guess the Sonics will ultimately be buyers.

Knicks
The Knicks are absolutely better than this but I’m pot committed to my rankings now, and they had a bad enough PS1 that they’re projected down here. I don’t think there’s a ton to learn about them from PS1 to be totally honest - the shot distribution seemed a little insane. In PS2, there was a lot of Ben McLemore, but this team has a dynamite starting lineup, a good big rotation between Gafford, Kessler, and Biyombo, and chips to upgrade in Jalen Green and movable expiring salaries. Is this too low for the Knicks? Yes. What should you do with all this equivocating? I don’t know.

Celtics
This is also probably too low for the Celtics, but they had a shaky preseason as well across the board, and a sideways TC beforehand. I don’t know that Eddy Curry is any good anymore. Can you imagine 40 year old Eddy Curry running up and down the court in a Very Fast 2023 offense? Joe Mazulla screaming at him about something inane from The Town? Fortunately James Harden is awesome, but this is another team potentially lacking wing defense and a source of upside.

Playoff Hopefuls

Clippers
As is, I have the Clippers just out of the playoffs. They desperately need a couple more bigs, but otherwise might just be set. Kyrie, Markelle, and Josh Hart make for a stout defensive backcourt, and goodness knows they’ll score a million points. Sexton and Mudiay should be able to do a serviceable job soaking up backup 1-2 minutes. Backup small forward and the big spots are the real concerns - I’m not sure how many starting level bigs are available, but this is at least a very fun team.

Cavaliers
The last few seasons haven’t been kind to the Cavs, and I don’t know that this is going to be the year they break through. Zach LaVine is still a top player, but he might be the only difference maker on this squad. Steph won’t struggle to score but he is just as turnover prone as his replacement and a bigger liability on defense. If Manty wanted to pivot into a tank, all his guys should have market value now, with LaVine commanding a lot in particular, and perhaps the bigs as well.

Kings
I trust Jesse to wheel and deal his way to a better position than this, but right now I don’t see this roster finishing in the playoffs in the west. I like Jabari Parker more than most, but this is a starting lineup composed almost completely out of guys that were playing backup minutes last season. There is meaningful upside in a few spots, notably Patrick Williams and Lonnie Walker, and a ton of expiring salary to trade.

Timberwolves
I’m not sure what’s going on in Minnesota at the moment, where it looks like there are only 9 rostered players. If this team is going to do anything this year, it would be as a result of Immanuel Quickley popping, and Michael Beasley turning back the clock. The Towns / Giannis pair hasn’t produced a ton to date despite both being among the league leaders at their positions. At this stage it will probably be tough to add meaningful depth, although Pankin does own all his own picks, which could net him something good if he wanted to leverage himself.

Banana Bread Tier

Raptors
Did you hear that they traded away Darius Bazley for peanuts? Toronto will be good very soon, but this is not the year. Scottie Barnes, Amen Thompson, and Isaac Okoro are a super fun core. There’s enough here that short of landing Wemby, JWoo will probably be drafting for fit. This could be the last year to make a top selection with their own pick, but Toronto is owed a ton of futures as well, so I could see them striking as soon as this offseason to acquire a missing piece. In the short term though, this is a season dedicated to Mr. Victor Wembanyama.

Heat
Next in the race for Wemby is Miami. Scoops has added a decent amount of high upside swings in the draft already between James Wiseman, Alperen Sengun who had a great preseason (look away Gülenites), Killian Hayes, and Rokas Jokubaitis. As is, I don’t think they sniff the front of the tank race; between Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard, and Isaac Bonga, they have too many competent players. All those guys should be marketable on their deals, and without Lillard and Thompson in particular, this team could really struggle to score.

Rockets
This is another potentially too competent team, although again, an easy one to strip mine into the basement if need be. Kemba Walker will provide competent but extremely movable play at point guard, and Michael Porter Jr. should excel wherever Notlan plays him. If for some reason they didn’t exist on this roster, Pascal Siakam lead option would be an absolute lord at tanking.

76ers
This is a classic LeBron Sixers roster just a few years past its prime. He is probably the only positive player D Mo has left, and I don’t see him carrying this team particularly far. Robert Covington can be sold off for at least RP, Bradley Beal might get something to a scoring starved team. Maybe Spencer could get something as well, but maybe D Mo holds on to him, for old time’s sake.

Nets
Steven should feel pretty positively about some of the young guys he’s acquired over the last season or two, and they should be fun to watch. I don’t see them winning many games, however. Zion is maybe better than people think based on the box scores, and hopefully has enough potential left in the tank to be a meaningful player. Keegan and LiAngelo are the guys I’d be really excited about, followed by Jabari and Cam Thomas. Zion as a top option and Scotty Pippen Jr. as lead guard are what are really going to separate the tanking wheat from the chaff so to say.

[Joe]

Oof - 5th best differential in the league last year, take the most games off the eventual champs of any East team, return basically the full squad plus Bey, don't play half our starters in PS2, and we get demoted to 20th? I am only slightly butthurt. Good bulletin board material for the fellas, tho - Eddy Curry is going to be hopped up on cortisone and Four Loko and screaming bloody murder as he sprints up and down the court

[quady]

Oof - 5th best differential in the league last year, take the most games off the eventual champs of any East team, return basically the full squad plus Bey, don't play half our starters in PS2, and we get demoted to 20th? I am only slightly butthurt. Good bulletin board material for the fellas, tho - Eddy Curry is going to be hopped up on cortisone and Four Loko and screaming bloody murder as he sprints up and down the court

Don’t tell Ja it was me

[Matt]

Oof - 5th best differential in the league last year, take the most games off the eventual champs of any East team, return basically the full squad plus Bey, don't play half our starters in PS2, and we get demoted to 20th? I am only slightly butthurt. Good bulletin board material for the fellas, tho - Eddy Curry is going to be hopped up on cortisone and Four Loko and screaming bloody murder as he sprints up and down the court

Chugging four loko and sprinting just simply cannot be good for Eddy Curry's heart

[mantypas/CavsCzar]

I used to think of Portland as Cleveland's sister city out west.... not anymore!

[SoNicks]

who cares about conveying a lottery pick low key. id rather make moves to win than be a try hard for a first round bounce!

[heimer]

the bullets are the only team not bolded !!

[Jordo]

I'd cry tears of joy if this happened but they dont call us Mid Antonio for nothing

[Merv]

the bullets are the only team not bolded !!

It’s because Quady doesn’t think his chips are in

[heimer]

the bullets are the only team not bolded !!

It’s because Quady doesn’t think his chips are in

not a bold move cotton