Maybe they'll be more accurate this time: The 2013-14 Power Rankings

[jwoo]

I had a real internal debate about whether to retire from doing Power Rankings forever after last year's total debacle. I decided not to do that. So here's the list.

I've added a "confidence level" element this time so I can better express how good or not good I feel about placing teams in certain spots (it's the level of my confidence in the ranking being accurate, not in the team itself). I've also brought back the "player to watch" category for added depth of analysis. Very excited for this season, feels like we've got our mojo back as a league!

***

29. LA Lakers
Confidence in this ranking: Extreme
Player to watch: Um...Nikola Mirotic?

Without a doubt, this is the worst roster in the league, led by Euroleague stars Sergio Lull and Nikola Mirotic, who had kind of a nasty Preseason 1 and flashed some things in the stock department. That's probably not real, but he did have that in his notes, so idk. The Lakers are really bad. Good job, GX!

28. Cleveland Cavaliers
Confidence in this ranking: Extreme
Player to watch: Nerlens Noel

I am very confident the Cavs are going to suck. Mantypas is doing a nice job with this rebuild, and it's going to be a while. Keep an eye on Nerlens, who might be one of the stockiest rookies in recent memory but is probably the best long-term piece on this roster, which is cool, but also something Mantypas will try to address in the next couple drafts. The central is so stacked that you have to think this team has a strong edge on worst record in the East — they may not win more than a few divisional games at this rate.

27. New York Knicks
Confidence in this ranking: Extreme
Player to watch: Victor Oladipo

History has shown that nobody is better at being absolutely terrible than Nav. The presence of Old Man Rip is the only wart on this tank machine. Nene is going to take down every churrascarria in Manhattan with BIG PEK by his side. They will eat their feelings after every loss. Victor Oladipo is the future, and gave us a nice first preseason sim, for whatever that's worth.

26. Orlando Magic
Confidence in this ranking: High
Player to watch: Cory Joseph

Merv tore this thing down quick and is going to roll out a highly experimental roster as Shawn Marion wastes away his final days chasing tail at the Ron Jon in Cocoa Beach (I've been there, it's great). NDL star Cory Joseph leads a few guys who are getting their first taste of major minutes. Will Anthony Bennett do anything? No idea, but the Magic look ready to grab a top five pick.

25. Phoenix Suns
Confidence in this ranking: High
Player to watch: Marcin Gortat (on the block)

Tyler was among a host of GMs who gracefully pivoted into tanks this off-season, moving on from all his good players except for Mr. Gortat, who is a prime trade candidate as soon as someone can muster the balls to trade for hi. (He's good!) I think there's still a little too much competence on this roster for them to tank with the big boys, but who knows. I'd like to see Ray Allen get shipped off to a contender for what might be his last hurrah.

24. Golden State Warriors
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty high
Player to watch: Jeremy Lin

It feels like the Warriors are tanking after stripping the roster all the way down, and I won't be surprised if Clint finally sells some of these other guys like Brook Lopez, who could probably help a good team at this point in his career. The Linsanity factor will probably prop them up a little bit, but imagining Jeremy Lin and Adam Morrison playing defense together is hilarious. I don't really buy their Preseason 1 success, and Clint should be trying to bottom out, probably. There are some good role players on the roster on affordable contracts that should be easy enough for him to move, too.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty high
Player to watch: James Harden

This is a confusing team - I don't think they're all-in on winning nor should they be, but James Harden will probably make them too good to be the worst team in the league, but also turn it over enough to keep it a little tanky. The supporting cast is getting better - rookie Giannis will be fun to monitor - and Pankin freed up more minutes for the twins, which I thought was probably wise. We'll see if they can thread the needle with Giannis and Harden's prime years and contract situations, but for now it's a low pressure situation.

22. Vancouver Grizzlies
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Rudy Fernandez

Josh is tearing it down, but he's probably going to be a little too good to truly suck, and it may be hard for him to move some of these contracts, ultimately. If he finds a way to get worse, then maybe he can fall a bit further on the list, but until that happens he's probably going to be mid but not bad enough to justify sending several of British Columbia's finest stallions to a certain racetrack in Serbia as a token of goodwill. Which mid-tier Canadian team wins more games this season? Josh, we should create the annual Canada cup or something and see who wins the season series.

21. Toronto Raptors
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty High
Player to watch: Ricky Rubio

I am pretty confident that my team is super mid, but after getting Paul Pierce for pennies I decided to go get his old pal Kwame and see how my young fellas perform with some proven veteran help up front. I actually think the roster fits, but I also don't know exactly how good some of these guys are yet and we have pretty horrible perimeter defense, so this is just kind of a litmus test season for us. I think in a best case scenario we get in the mix for the eight seed, but more likely we end up drafting in the late lottery even after the moves we made. But who knows! Ricky went +1 in inside scoring in TC which is not insignificant, so maybe he'll keep getting better and blocking out all his haters (he doesn't even understand English, guys). The fact we have to play in the Central does not help.

20. Los Angeles Clippers
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Boogie Cousins

The Clippers are also a super confusing team — they don't have any of their picks for a while, so the safeguards are off — and it's basically the same group as last year, which underachieved and didn't really click that well (minus Malik Allen, who is gone). Is there a trade here that really helps matters? Can they find anyone to play defense? Most importantly: Bobby staked much of his future on DeMarcus Cousins, who I believe he cannot RFA tag because he tagged D Rose a couple years ago, so how Cousins performs in a contract year and whether he re-signs is an interesting subplot to follow. Should he trade Cousins to a team that can tag him or does that kind of defeat the purpose of the whole thing? Dunno.

19. New Jersey Nets
Confidence in this ranking: Not super high
Player to watch: Kemba Walker

My gut says the Nets' bigs are a year away from really making him a playoff team, but Kemba seems to have made a leap and JJ and Granger are going to give this team efficient firepower, so they certainly aren't going to be a pushover anymore. If Kemba is ready, then maybe this team can make the playoffs, but the East is a complete bloodbath right now, so my guess would be they end up in the 35-40ish win range. But who knows, there's upside for more.

18. Miami Heat
Confidence in this ranking: Not super high
Player to watch: Damian Lillard

The Heat are kind of in a similar place to the Nets, except their guard play is very young and their frontcourt is very proven. I think it probably levels out into a competitive product — Scoops got some legit bigs in there to help cover for what his perimeter guys lack in the defense and rebounding departments — but again, the East is a bitch. We know Klay is already awesome, but the Heat probably need Dame to grow up really fast in order for them to mount a real push for the playoffs. It's certainly not out of the question, but I think this team might be a year away from really being good. Then again, they have three Flat A outside shooters ages 23, 23 and 20, so that's pretty nasty. Like the Nets, wide range of outcomes here.

17. Boston Celtics
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Paul George

Rounding out this trio of Interesting Atlantic Teams is the Celtics, whose young stars are a hair more mature than their counterparts in New Jersey and Miami. The very proven Devin Harris gives Boston a hair more stability than most teams. Basically, Paul George has to be efficient for this team to make a leap, which seems pretty plausible. Okafor will help a ton, as will the Beasley shooting camp, so I have modest expectations for the Celts at this point. Feels like the year they make a push.

16. San Antonio Spurs
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Kevin Love

The Spurs are one of the league's most interesting teams right now, and I'd say they're in a pretty similar tier with Boston/New Jersey/Miami, where the young stars are ready to emerge, the supporting cast is much improved, and we just need to see how things jell. I think the key to the season here is going to be Kevin Love producing the way he's supposed to, as well as George Hill being able to handle the PG minutes. Jordo has the ammo to go upgrade at point guard if he wants to, but I've always loved Hill and I think he'll get the job done. Spurs should easily be in the back end playoff mix.

15. Dallas Mavericks
Confidence in this ranking: Not super high
Player to watch: Hassan Whiteside

Congrats to Hoff for winning this year's mythical Preseason 1 Championship. Hang the banners. In reality I have no idea what to do with the Mavs, who have some awesome players and some elite defenders, but also don't have great depth and have a very young supporting cast. I do think it's a very fun team — Hassan "efficient 18 and 14" Whiteside is ready for a contract year — and Jrue is pretty cool despite the turnovers. I think there's an interesting range of outcomes for the Mavs overall and I don't know which direction the needle moves, so here they are ranked 15th. Kirilenko can still do a ton of heavy lifting.

14. Washington Bullets
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Chris Paul

I liked some of the moves Wes made in terms of spending to shore up the depth on the roster. But for whatever reason (the reason is they've never pulled the trigger to get a third star) the CP/Manu Wiz haven't been able to get over the hump. I also don't think it's going to get any easier for them, with a bunch of younger teams starting to nip at their heels. I didn't check or anything, but I'm pretty certain this is the oldest roster in the league. The Wiz always seem to be bankable for 45-50 wins, but I don't know if there's upside for more than that, unless there's a trade coming to shore up the frontcourt a bit more. Still, an elite backcourt guarantees a strong floor for this group. CP3 needs to be at his absolute best for them to hit their ceiling.

13. Seattle Sonics
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Greg Oden

This season is a major test of Nick's incredible FBB juju, with Poopypants off to Toronto and the Sonics now working with a reunited Ohio State pairing of Greg Oden and Mike Conley. Oden is becoming a monster and Conley is an elite point guard, so that should give Seattle a nice floor. However, they're relying heavily on Eric Gordon, Shane Battier and PJ Tucker right now to provide efficient volume on the wings, something that might be a little bit of a rollercoaster as the season goes on. Jamario Moon is a fun wild card on the roster and I'm sure Nick will find a fun way to use him and help this team stay very relevant.

12. Utah Jazz
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Al Hefty

The Jazz are another team with a reliable formula that should be comfortably in a playoff spot in the West, with star talent and maybe a little bit of room to upgrade? Can Ralph flip Big Ray Ray into a better point guard? The Jazz killed it last year after becoming a balanced team, so I think that probably carries into this season. However, the depth is really questionable right now after losing Jason Thompson and Yaroslav Korolev, two reliable bench guys who soaked up a ton of minutes (and maybe also soaked with a bunch of beautiful Mormon women during their time in Utah). These guys are good, but a notch behind the Rockets and Nuggets in their division.

11. Atlanta Hawks
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Tyreke Evans

Weilheimer was one of the off-season's primary movers, grabbing Jamal Crawford, Dirk and Joakim Noah to give this team a whole lot more firepower. A lot is hanging on his young bigs being able to pick up the slack, and Bismack and Jonas aren't quite there ratings-wise. Still, having two of the best scorers in the league counts for something. Tyreke Evans has been on the cusp of stardom and he's now getting paid like one, so we'll see if he can be the X-factor for this roster. This should be one of SLN's best offenses, and Russ is 25 years old and starting to do the thing. The Hawks could contend in the central (sheesh, six central teams in my Top 11 right now) but I think the frontcourt factor makes it a little tricky on paper. It's possible Weilheimer ends up having to flip one of his guard trio to balance this out a bit better in the end.

10. Detroit Pistons
Confidence in this ranking: Low
Player to watch: Kyrie Irving

The Pistons have two A+ shooters in the backcourt and an excellent frontcourt, and I feel like this might be the year where things finally click for RB as a result. The defense has to prop up the offense, Kyrie has to stay happy, and Pau has to get back to being himself. I think the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers and Pistons are all in a pretty tight grouping in the East right now in terms of roster quality on paper, but I'm not confident in the order in which they're ranked, and I also think it's possible one of them falls back towards the middle of the pack if things don't totally click. Still, have to feel good about this team on paper. Serge Ibaka at SF is a pretty interesting X-factor.

9. Indiana Pacers
Confidence in this ranking: Low
Player to watch: Chris Bosh

Very interested to see how the Pacers sim with Bosh in the fold and a ton of reinforcements, the depth is good and it's just generally a pretty cool roster. This is Tonger's first real test in terms of trying to win, but I also don't think he needs to tinker all that much in terms of DCs other than figuring out who comes off the bench, so it should be fine. Once Elton Brand gets here on Day 30 that will be spicy. Curious if Bosh at PF is just totally insane. As long as he can maintain his level of play from the last couple of seasons, I feel pretty good about the Pacers as a playoff team.

8. Charlotte Hornets
Confidence in this ranking: for better or worse, I have literally never been right about the Hornets
Player to watch: Rudy Gay

Is this the year the Hornets get usurped by a few upstart teams in the Central Divsion? Don't ask me because I will definitely be wrong. I'm pretty sure the Hornets are still good, and with Rudy Gay jumping up to A inside (NOT THIS GUY!), maybe this is the year he becomes an FBB star. Jack might be able to flip Pavlovic (finally) into another good player or two now that his contract is almost up, so there's some upside for Charlotte to keep improving and win 50 games again. However, Jack had a pretty quiet off-season, so it's hard to project a higher ceiling unless Gay really becomes the guy. It could happen though, and this team isn't broken by any means.

7. Philadelphia 76ers
Confidence in this ranking: High
Player to watch: L E B R O N

The Sixers perennially have the highest floor thanks to LeBron, but they lost Jermaine O'Neal in free agency and aren't as deep as they've been in the past, maybe. DMo's roster is mostly expiring so he should have some ability to change things up if he wants. He went and got a lot of wing shooters that don't defend, I don't really get what the rotation is going to be, but I just assume it's a lot of LBJ and 50 wins. I think they should safely win the Atlantic again, but the conference is a lot harder this year, so I don't expect them to run away with it this time.

6. Sacramento Kings
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty high
Player to watch: BOBAN

When Jesse goes for it, the Kings win, so I feel pretty good that they're firmly a playoff team with Wade in the mix and a solid supporting cast. Eager to see some Boban boxes. Some very solid role players with Deng, Metta and Humphries giving this team a ton of defensive backbone. If Brandon Jennings can live up to his contract, are the Kings a dark horse in the West? We'll see, particularly if they're able to swing an upgrade or two on top of all they added in the off-season. This is a team I'm looking forward to seeing sim overall. Could be better than this!

5. Milwaukee Bucks
Confidence in this ranking: High
Player to watch: Thabo

Derek made a big push to add defensively capable role players in the off-season, giving the Bucks a different look with less wing firepower but much improved perimeter defense. I don't know if Thabo was worth a sack and a half but the A+ defense rating is pretty sexy and I certainly have chased after guys like him before. Jeff Green is another interesting gamble after a big Preseason 1 sim. As always, KD and LMA give Milwaukee an incredibly high floor. It's possible one of the other East teams breaks out and maybe knocks the Bucks down a peg? But it's hard to bet against this team considering the large sample we've seen over the years with this type of roster construction.

4. Chicago Bulls
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty high
Player to watch: Tony Parker (again)

I'm confident the Bulls are still good, but I'm not confident they cakewalk over the East with all the shuffling that's occurred in the last week or so. After supercamping Jimmer, I would bet Matt trades OJ Mayo or McCants to break a contract up and diversify his roster a little bit (lots of shooters, not a lot of defense on the wing). Tony Parker and Eddie Griffin got better in TC, so I don't know what to tell you. Seems like another contention year ahead.

3. Denver Nuggets
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty high
Player to watch: Monta Ellis

How does a full season of Monta click for the Nuggets? Is there too much firepower and not enough defense? We'll find out, but the Nugs are gonna win 60 games again as long as they stay healthy. Tons of scoring, good role players and rebounders, not much to nitpick here, just a matter of whether they can position themselves well for the playoffs with the top seed in the West. The East might be insanely deep, but the top tier of the West teams are hard to fuck with!

2. Houston Rockets
Confidence in this ranking: Moderate
Player to watch: Al Farouq Aminu

The Rockets more or less ran it back, losing David Lee but bringing back the rest of their title team successfully. Nolan still has his MLE available, so he should be able to go add another player if he wants to fill another hole (it could just be David Lee again, lol). Rockets are an elite team until they aren't anymore, and we'll see how well the inside approach sustains as these guys get older, but there should be at least another couple seasons of peak T-Mac and Eddy Curry to work with. Definitely a threat to repeat. Can Aminu be another Julian Wright? I am moderately confident because Houston might just be 1 again.

1. Portland Trail Blazers
Confidence in this ranking: Pretty high
Player to watch: Jameer Nelson

I think the Blazers are probably the favorite after moving Marion and grabbing Yi and CJ Miles and Joe Johnson. This team has a lot more offense than it used to, and Yi is the perfect fit for that Marion role. I guess one question I have is whether having these extra scorers takes more volume away from Jameer, but these are champagne problems. (On the flipside maybe Dwight shoots less!) This roster is awesome, Horford took a jump, there's better depth than before, yada yada. I think I put Portland 1 last year, but this time I mean it. Sorry Quady!


Can't wait to see box scores, I'm going to sleep lol

[Jordo]

fuck were so back

[Merv]

Jwoo is usually about 8 spots off of my ranking. So I guess I’m gonna be decent. Smh

[nolan]

It's LeBrons year for sure

[pacers]

Jwoo is usually about 8 spots off of my ranking. So I guess I’m gonna be decent. Smh

I'm going to assume JWoo is 8 spots off on my ranking too

[Merv]

Jwoo is usually about 8 spots off of my ranking. So I guess I’m gonna be decent. Smh

I'm going to assume JWoo is 8 spots off on my ranking too

LOL he’s usually too high, so not sure you want that my brother

[GX.]

"Without a doubt the worst roster in the league" got me jazzed up

[Joe]

Gimme the over

[Nav]

“History has shown that nobody is better at being absolutely terrible than Nav.”

It is an honor and a privilege!

[Clinton]

Another year of JWoo undermining my organization