Article: Lotto Draft Grades (to be continued) (Author - Matt)
Article: Lotto Draft Grades (to be continued) (Author - Matt)
Sup everyone - here to give out some draft grades based on player upside, team fit, and who I would have picked in that position. Before you read any further, know that everything I’m about to say is a COMPLETE GUESS and I will definitely get grades right/wrong. Let’s get to it!
1. Washington Bullets select PF Tim Duncan
Grade: A
I make fun of Weston for being one of the luckiest people I’ve ever met in general, and I don’t think he likes it - but I bet he likes being a lucky mother fucker more. Bullets jump from 6 to 1 to land the prize of the draft in the Big Fundamental. Timmy looks like one of the best bigs not just in the draft, but maybe in the league post TC, after reward camps improve his B+ / B+ defense and rebounding, and B inside scoring to boot. Not much to say here - those starting ratings combined with some reward camps and the potential that I’m sure Duncan is loaded with should lead him to the upper echelon of SLN sooner rather than later.
2. Boston Celtics select SF Tracy McGrady
Grade: A
TMac looked like the clear second choice, but in my opinion he’s the top of the next tier of players, rather than in Duncan’s tier. At just 18 years old, he’ll be raw at first, but the Kobe/TMac wing duo is gonna win a lot of games for Boston in the near future. I do think TMac will need some good dice rolls to turn into a top 3 or so SF in the league given that his Outside and Defense will need some work. Kobe/TMac’s development will be a fascinating case to watch to evaluate the “same position” theory, which is the idea that FBB limits development per position per team - so having two young guys at the same position causes them to cannibalize each others’ gains and limits their upside. I’ve never been a believer, but people with more FBB experience than me are staunch supporters of the theory. We shall see!
3. Vancouver Grizzlies select PG Chauncey Billups
Grade: A
Josh lands Chauncey with the 3rd pick, and while this may be a controversial opinion, I think Chauncey has a chance to outperform TMac in SLN. His ratings are already good enough to start for a playoff team with the B+ outside and B defense - but I love his draft notes. The Grizzlies have a couple high-TO guys in Grant Hill and Shawn Kemp, and it seems as though Billups will take care of the ball great - both with high handles and low passing (based on the notes). His floor looks to be an efficient player (both shooting and TOs) on offense and a solid player on defense - but with any luck in TC he could turn into one of the best two-way PGs in the league.
4. Seattle Supersonics select SF Peja Stojakovic
Grade: B+
Ashes must have iced the envelopes this year to try to disincentivize tanking going forward - the Sonics put together one of the most electrifying tanking seasons I’ve ever seen, and were rewarded by dropping 3 spots in the lotto from 1st to 4th in what seems to me to be a 3 player draft at the top. Welcome to FBB, Nick! They go with Peja here, which isn’t a bad pick by any means - but I’m skeptical that a SF starting out with C defense and whose notes are so disparaging to his defense will ever improve enough to be viable on a championship-caliber team. In SLN, it’s entirely possible that his offensive game will carry him to stardom, but I worry he may be too much of a turnstile to overcome. His draft stipulation is very interesting though - I’m curious to see if Nick sends him down to the NDL to start his career.
5. Utah Jazz select C Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Grade: B+
Hat tip to Ashes for the draft stipulation on Big Z - it has definitely pretzeled my brain as I try to decide if it’s a good or bad stipulation. First, the player - Ilguaskas has decent ratings and based on his notes should be a upper tier, but not elite, big man for most of his career. Ok, the stipulation (for those who don’t remember it/don’t want to look it up - if Z gets one of two foot injuries in his first three seasons, he’ll be benched for the rest of the season, but if he makes it through his first 3 seasons without either of those specific injuries, he’ll get a huge potential boost (+25). Ok, gonna get meta here. I don’t know how many injuries are available in FBB, but it’s a lot - it seems like the percentage chance that a specific player will get one of two specific injuries in just three years seems pretty low (I’d estimate like less than 5%, though I’m by no means an expert). And the potential boost is HUGE! +25 seems almost like a typo. But here’s where I’m skeptical - given how large the boost is, there’s almost no way that Z has high potential to start with. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle in his first few TCs as that potential continues to decrease from what I would assume was an already low starting point. The question then becomes if the boost to potential is enough to overcome a sluggish start - and I personally am not sure I’m ready to take that chance. It’s possible that Z will be too far gone by the time that potential kicks in that he’s just destined to be a run of the mill average starter, which is totally fine - but less than you’d hope for a top 5 overall pick.
6. Detroit Pistons select SF Stephen Jackson
Grade: A
Plenty of SFs at the top of this draft! Mikey takes 19 year old Jackson to pair with ‘Toine, who just turned 20 - and if both can pan out, the Pistons will be cooking with gas in a few years. I like the Jackson pick a lot - his ratings look high-ceiling to me, but when you combine that with him just being 19 years old, there’s a recipe for a star in the making. He looks like a two way guy already, and if the B- outside can improve, he could be one of the better scorers at the position. The draft notes are a bit ominous though - it definitely doesn’t paint as pretty a picture as I’m painting, just looking at his ratings. But on the whole, I think he was the clear pick at 6, and might have been a slight favorite for me out of the 3 guys drafted from 4-6.
Will continue this when I have time and finish out the lotto - but let me know who you agree / disagree with!
1. Washington Bullets select PF Tim Duncan
Grade: A
I make fun of Weston for being one of the luckiest people I’ve ever met in general, and I don’t think he likes it - but I bet he likes being a lucky mother fucker more. Bullets jump from 6 to 1 to land the prize of the draft in the Big Fundamental. Timmy looks like one of the best bigs not just in the draft, but maybe in the league post TC, after reward camps improve his B+ / B+ defense and rebounding, and B inside scoring to boot. Not much to say here - those starting ratings combined with some reward camps and the potential that I’m sure Duncan is loaded with should lead him to the upper echelon of SLN sooner rather than later.
2. Boston Celtics select SF Tracy McGrady
Grade: A
TMac looked like the clear second choice, but in my opinion he’s the top of the next tier of players, rather than in Duncan’s tier. At just 18 years old, he’ll be raw at first, but the Kobe/TMac wing duo is gonna win a lot of games for Boston in the near future. I do think TMac will need some good dice rolls to turn into a top 3 or so SF in the league given that his Outside and Defense will need some work. Kobe/TMac’s development will be a fascinating case to watch to evaluate the “same position” theory, which is the idea that FBB limits development per position per team - so having two young guys at the same position causes them to cannibalize each others’ gains and limits their upside. I’ve never been a believer, but people with more FBB experience than me are staunch supporters of the theory. We shall see!
3. Vancouver Grizzlies select PG Chauncey Billups
Grade: A
Josh lands Chauncey with the 3rd pick, and while this may be a controversial opinion, I think Chauncey has a chance to outperform TMac in SLN. His ratings are already good enough to start for a playoff team with the B+ outside and B defense - but I love his draft notes. The Grizzlies have a couple high-TO guys in Grant Hill and Shawn Kemp, and it seems as though Billups will take care of the ball great - both with high handles and low passing (based on the notes). His floor looks to be an efficient player (both shooting and TOs) on offense and a solid player on defense - but with any luck in TC he could turn into one of the best two-way PGs in the league.
4. Seattle Supersonics select SF Peja Stojakovic
Grade: B+
Ashes must have iced the envelopes this year to try to disincentivize tanking going forward - the Sonics put together one of the most electrifying tanking seasons I’ve ever seen, and were rewarded by dropping 3 spots in the lotto from 1st to 4th in what seems to me to be a 3 player draft at the top. Welcome to FBB, Nick! They go with Peja here, which isn’t a bad pick by any means - but I’m skeptical that a SF starting out with C defense and whose notes are so disparaging to his defense will ever improve enough to be viable on a championship-caliber team. In SLN, it’s entirely possible that his offensive game will carry him to stardom, but I worry he may be too much of a turnstile to overcome. His draft stipulation is very interesting though - I’m curious to see if Nick sends him down to the NDL to start his career.
5. Utah Jazz select C Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Grade: B+
Hat tip to Ashes for the draft stipulation on Big Z - it has definitely pretzeled my brain as I try to decide if it’s a good or bad stipulation. First, the player - Ilguaskas has decent ratings and based on his notes should be a upper tier, but not elite, big man for most of his career. Ok, the stipulation (for those who don’t remember it/don’t want to look it up - if Z gets one of two foot injuries in his first three seasons, he’ll be benched for the rest of the season, but if he makes it through his first 3 seasons without either of those specific injuries, he’ll get a huge potential boost (+25). Ok, gonna get meta here. I don’t know how many injuries are available in FBB, but it’s a lot - it seems like the percentage chance that a specific player will get one of two specific injuries in just three years seems pretty low (I’d estimate like less than 5%, though I’m by no means an expert). And the potential boost is HUGE! +25 seems almost like a typo. But here’s where I’m skeptical - given how large the boost is, there’s almost no way that Z has high potential to start with. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle in his first few TCs as that potential continues to decrease from what I would assume was an already low starting point. The question then becomes if the boost to potential is enough to overcome a sluggish start - and I personally am not sure I’m ready to take that chance. It’s possible that Z will be too far gone by the time that potential kicks in that he’s just destined to be a run of the mill average starter, which is totally fine - but less than you’d hope for a top 5 overall pick.
6. Detroit Pistons select SF Stephen Jackson
Grade: A
Plenty of SFs at the top of this draft! Mikey takes 19 year old Jackson to pair with ‘Toine, who just turned 20 - and if both can pan out, the Pistons will be cooking with gas in a few years. I like the Jackson pick a lot - his ratings look high-ceiling to me, but when you combine that with him just being 19 years old, there’s a recipe for a star in the making. He looks like a two way guy already, and if the B- outside can improve, he could be one of the better scorers at the position. The draft notes are a bit ominous though - it definitely doesn’t paint as pretty a picture as I’m painting, just looking at his ratings. But on the whole, I think he was the clear pick at 6, and might have been a slight favorite for me out of the 3 guys drafted from 4-6.
Will continue this when I have time and finish out the lotto - but let me know who you agree / disagree with!
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And we ride on dem thangs like ev-ery day
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And parties don't stop 'til eight in the Monin
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