First Round Preview
First Round Preview
West
#1 Grizzlies v #8 Rockets
Season Series: 4-0 Grizzlies
Point Diff: +11 / -0.7
The Grizzlies are among the top teams in the league in basically every statistical category, no matter how you slice it, whereas the Rockets have been pretty close to league average. Eddy Curry or Shaun Livingston could certainly get hot and win Houston a few games, but I think the Grizzlies are just too tough overall. I’m taking the Grizz in a gentleman’s sweep.
#4 Nuggets v. #5 Mavericks
Season Series: 3-1 Nuggets
Point Diff: +5.6 / +6.1
A great first round matchup and clash of styles. The Mavericks were a slightly above average offense all year with what is probably the league’s best defense. They lead in steals thanks to AK and Kobe, and excel in positional defense as well, posting the third lowest oTS% in SLN. While teams struggled to score against them, they were about league average at shooting efficiency, and actually below average in possessions gained over the course of the season, largely thanks to an almost -2 rebounding deficit.
The Nuggets meanwhile were among the league leaders in possessions gained thanks to a huge rebounding delta, thanks to an absolutely massive starting lineup. They were sixth in shooting efficiency as a squad, and rode that shooting and rebounding combination to an almost identical point differential as the Mavs.
This is a great defense vs offense, rebounding vs stocks argument of a series, and definitely the West series to watch in the first round. I’m going to go with shooting and rebounding (and homecourt). I think this one is close - pick is Nuggets in 7.
#2 Trail Blazers v. #7 Suns
Season Series: 4-0 Trail Blazers
Point Diff: +8.9 / +3.7
On paper this doesn’t look particularly close, but in that season series, we won by 3, 3, 3, and 4 points. There are a lot of similarities between these two rosters - Mike Conley looks a lot like Jameer a couple of seasons ago, JJ is a better, younger version of Michael Redd, Moon and Marion are pretty similar do-everything wings, and Gortat and Love feel similar spiritually to Dwight and Al (and have all worn the Blazer uniform).
I think Phoenix continues to keep it close here and steals a couple of games with nice JJ and Ray Allen performances, but I’m taking us in 6. The Horford / Love box scores should be fun.
#3 Sonics v. #6 Jazz
Season Series: 3-1 Jazz
Point Diff: +9.2 / 2.4
The Al Jefferson injury really hurts Utah here - I was ready to make the upset pick if he were suiting up. In the season series, the Jazz won the possession battle in all three of their wins, (including one without Al Jefferson). Maybe Dark just owns the Seattle frontline? Interestingly, Utah wasn’t a plus rebounding or possession team over the course of the season; either they excel in this matchup, or, just caught lightning in a bottle a few times.
I would have loved to see this matchup full strength, but as it is, I am going to take Seattle in 6. I don’t think the Jazz have quite enough juice without Al. At the end of the day, Dirk in the playoffs is insanely tough to beat, and Utah isn’t able to take their best shot at him.
East
#1 Bulls v #8 Bullets
Season Series: 3-1 Bulls
Point Diff: +9.1 / +4.8
If the Bullets were fully healthy, this would be such an insane 1-8 matchup. I don’t know that any team can match up better with Parker and McCants than Washington with Paul and Manu. Sadly that is not the case, and the Bullets will be without Manu for 3 games and Gerald Wallace for 5.
On the Chicago side, this is probably Matt’s best team from his recent stretch of dominance. He did very well to get off Maggette with a useful expiring in Jason Richardson. He’s got stars at every position, a great bench, and (don’t read this Jameer) the people’s MVP in Parker. Washington is a great shooting team, but the Bulls are better. Chicago might be a bit soft on the boards, but I don’t think Washington is set up to take advantage there.
I think the Bullets steal one or maybe two games here, but just don’t see a way for them to beat this Bulls squad. Pick is Chicago in 5.
#4 Bucks v #5 Magic
Season Series: 3-1 Bucks
Point Diff: +8.3 / + 7.4
Tough matchup here for Orlando, drawing Kevin Durant in the first round, and without their starting SF to guard him. Fully healthy, this is a pretty even matchup, with both teams among the league leaders in rebounding and shooting efficiency deltas, and sixth and seventh in the league respectively in point differential. To be fair to Derek, he was foiled upgrading his roster at the eleventh hour, which maybe balances out the Yi injury a bit. I’ll take Milwaukee here in 5 and feel not great about it.
#2 76ers v #7 Hornets
Season Series: 2-1 Hornets
Point Diff: +10 / +2.9
A bit of an unlucky outcome here for DMo, posting the second best point differential, and drawing the Hornets, a very good team that struggled with health this season. AI missed 51 games, Primoz 17, and almost everyone else that mattered missed a handful, except the crowd favorites Sasha Pavlovic and Goran Dragic. Charlotte is probably missing one or two guys in the frontcourt, but they have a shallow roster as is and not a lot of fat to cut or salaries to move around.
This is definitely the best 6ers team, at least since Livingston and Dwight abandoned ship, and credit to DMo for pulling it off moving LeBron back to the three despite popular consensus. Philly has not defended super well positionally, allowing opponents to shoot with roughly league average efficiency against them, but they’ve dominated literally every other facet of the game en route to the second seed. I’m a little surprised they start Hawes at the five and O’Neal at four - this frontcourt might be something to watch especially given who they’re matching up against.
I wanted to pick an upset here, but the 6ers are the better, deeper team, and they have homecourt. I’ll take Philly in 7 - ring the bell.
#3 Knicks v #6 Cavaliers
Season Series: 2-2
Point Diff: +5.3 / +2.6
Two fully healthy teams! Cleveland was pretty banged up to start the year, and probably a bit better in reality than they look statistically on paper. The Knicks meanwhile changed a lot this season and are also probably better today than their season indicated. This is yet another interesting frontcourt matchup - Duncan and Garnett are an intimidating pair, but I wonder if Chris Bosh might be a little too quick and strong for the two 35 year olds. I like Thad Young and Adam Morrison off the bench for Cleveland, but Matt Barnes looks pretty overmatched as a starter, good run there aside. Danny Granger should do well in that matchup for Nav. I’d also take the Crawford / Hamilton backcourt pair over Harris / Gordon for Cleveland. I’ll take Knicks in 5.
#1 Grizzlies v #8 Rockets
Season Series: 4-0 Grizzlies
Point Diff: +11 / -0.7
The Grizzlies are among the top teams in the league in basically every statistical category, no matter how you slice it, whereas the Rockets have been pretty close to league average. Eddy Curry or Shaun Livingston could certainly get hot and win Houston a few games, but I think the Grizzlies are just too tough overall. I’m taking the Grizz in a gentleman’s sweep.
#4 Nuggets v. #5 Mavericks
Season Series: 3-1 Nuggets
Point Diff: +5.6 / +6.1
A great first round matchup and clash of styles. The Mavericks were a slightly above average offense all year with what is probably the league’s best defense. They lead in steals thanks to AK and Kobe, and excel in positional defense as well, posting the third lowest oTS% in SLN. While teams struggled to score against them, they were about league average at shooting efficiency, and actually below average in possessions gained over the course of the season, largely thanks to an almost -2 rebounding deficit.
The Nuggets meanwhile were among the league leaders in possessions gained thanks to a huge rebounding delta, thanks to an absolutely massive starting lineup. They were sixth in shooting efficiency as a squad, and rode that shooting and rebounding combination to an almost identical point differential as the Mavs.
This is a great defense vs offense, rebounding vs stocks argument of a series, and definitely the West series to watch in the first round. I’m going to go with shooting and rebounding (and homecourt). I think this one is close - pick is Nuggets in 7.
#2 Trail Blazers v. #7 Suns
Season Series: 4-0 Trail Blazers
Point Diff: +8.9 / +3.7
On paper this doesn’t look particularly close, but in that season series, we won by 3, 3, 3, and 4 points. There are a lot of similarities between these two rosters - Mike Conley looks a lot like Jameer a couple of seasons ago, JJ is a better, younger version of Michael Redd, Moon and Marion are pretty similar do-everything wings, and Gortat and Love feel similar spiritually to Dwight and Al (and have all worn the Blazer uniform).
I think Phoenix continues to keep it close here and steals a couple of games with nice JJ and Ray Allen performances, but I’m taking us in 6. The Horford / Love box scores should be fun.
#3 Sonics v. #6 Jazz
Season Series: 3-1 Jazz
Point Diff: +9.2 / 2.4
The Al Jefferson injury really hurts Utah here - I was ready to make the upset pick if he were suiting up. In the season series, the Jazz won the possession battle in all three of their wins, (including one without Al Jefferson). Maybe Dark just owns the Seattle frontline? Interestingly, Utah wasn’t a plus rebounding or possession team over the course of the season; either they excel in this matchup, or, just caught lightning in a bottle a few times.
I would have loved to see this matchup full strength, but as it is, I am going to take Seattle in 6. I don’t think the Jazz have quite enough juice without Al. At the end of the day, Dirk in the playoffs is insanely tough to beat, and Utah isn’t able to take their best shot at him.
East
#1 Bulls v #8 Bullets
Season Series: 3-1 Bulls
Point Diff: +9.1 / +4.8
If the Bullets were fully healthy, this would be such an insane 1-8 matchup. I don’t know that any team can match up better with Parker and McCants than Washington with Paul and Manu. Sadly that is not the case, and the Bullets will be without Manu for 3 games and Gerald Wallace for 5.
On the Chicago side, this is probably Matt’s best team from his recent stretch of dominance. He did very well to get off Maggette with a useful expiring in Jason Richardson. He’s got stars at every position, a great bench, and (don’t read this Jameer) the people’s MVP in Parker. Washington is a great shooting team, but the Bulls are better. Chicago might be a bit soft on the boards, but I don’t think Washington is set up to take advantage there.
I think the Bullets steal one or maybe two games here, but just don’t see a way for them to beat this Bulls squad. Pick is Chicago in 5.
#4 Bucks v #5 Magic
Season Series: 3-1 Bucks
Point Diff: +8.3 / + 7.4
Tough matchup here for Orlando, drawing Kevin Durant in the first round, and without their starting SF to guard him. Fully healthy, this is a pretty even matchup, with both teams among the league leaders in rebounding and shooting efficiency deltas, and sixth and seventh in the league respectively in point differential. To be fair to Derek, he was foiled upgrading his roster at the eleventh hour, which maybe balances out the Yi injury a bit. I’ll take Milwaukee here in 5 and feel not great about it.
#2 76ers v #7 Hornets
Season Series: 2-1 Hornets
Point Diff: +10 / +2.9
A bit of an unlucky outcome here for DMo, posting the second best point differential, and drawing the Hornets, a very good team that struggled with health this season. AI missed 51 games, Primoz 17, and almost everyone else that mattered missed a handful, except the crowd favorites Sasha Pavlovic and Goran Dragic. Charlotte is probably missing one or two guys in the frontcourt, but they have a shallow roster as is and not a lot of fat to cut or salaries to move around.
This is definitely the best 6ers team, at least since Livingston and Dwight abandoned ship, and credit to DMo for pulling it off moving LeBron back to the three despite popular consensus. Philly has not defended super well positionally, allowing opponents to shoot with roughly league average efficiency against them, but they’ve dominated literally every other facet of the game en route to the second seed. I’m a little surprised they start Hawes at the five and O’Neal at four - this frontcourt might be something to watch especially given who they’re matching up against.
I wanted to pick an upset here, but the 6ers are the better, deeper team, and they have homecourt. I’ll take Philly in 7 - ring the bell.
#3 Knicks v #6 Cavaliers
Season Series: 2-2
Point Diff: +5.3 / +2.6
Two fully healthy teams! Cleveland was pretty banged up to start the year, and probably a bit better in reality than they look statistically on paper. The Knicks meanwhile changed a lot this season and are also probably better today than their season indicated. This is yet another interesting frontcourt matchup - Duncan and Garnett are an intimidating pair, but I wonder if Chris Bosh might be a little too quick and strong for the two 35 year olds. I like Thad Young and Adam Morrison off the bench for Cleveland, but Matt Barnes looks pretty overmatched as a starter, good run there aside. Danny Granger should do well in that matchup for Nav. I’d also take the Crawford / Hamilton backcourt pair over Harris / Gordon for Cleveland. I’ll take Knicks in 5.
message to my players don't run afoul of me or I will banish your ass to cleveland
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mantypas/CavsCzar
- General Manager
- Posts: 742
- Joined: December 20th, 2023, 12:06 pm
About time we had one of these previews, love these
"It's great to see the Celtics doing well again, 'cause that was so much fun in my day to go to the Boston Garden and get spit at, get things thrown at you and talk about your mom. It sounds like dinner at Kenny Smith's house."
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SWAMP STEVEN
- General Manager
- Posts: 548
- Joined: January 5th, 2024, 2:11 pm
It’s the Bulls’ year
*DJ DRAMA VOICE* OH YOU HEARD THE RUMORS [GANGSTA GRIZZILLZ] IT’S A MOTHERFUCKIN SWAMPSTORY!
*lighter flick* Never talk to the cops I don’t speak piglatin / I turned the Nets into the motherfuckin Swamp Dragons
*lighter flick* Never talk to the cops I don’t speak piglatin / I turned the Nets into the motherfuckin Swamp Dragons
I agree. Nuggets too good. We have absolutely no shot of advancing out of the first round.
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